Galen Center · at USC · Conference game
Closing line
ILL -8.5✓ ILL covered by 27.5
ILL -8.5✓ ILL covered by 27.5Closing total151.5Over by 14.5
| ILL | This season | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 21-5 | Record | 17-7 |
| 16-10 | ATS | 13-11 |
| 10-16 | O/U | 13-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILL 84–76 USC · ✓ ILL (78%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 54 | 47 | 101 |
| USC | 32 | 33 | 65 |
1st half: ILL 54, USC 32 (ILL by 22). The model had ILL by 5.3 and a total of 74.7 (actual 86).
Team stats
| ILL | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-62 52% | Field goals | 23-62 37% |
| 13-29 45% | 3-pointers | 7-18 39% |
| 24-26 92% | Free throws | 12-20 60% |
| 41 13 off | Rebounds | 30 13 off |
| 21 | Assists | 16 |
| 7 | Steals | 5 |
| 8 | Blocks | 2 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 19 | Fast-break points | 1 |
Players
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 29 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 28 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 5-13 | 1-6 |
| Jake Davis F | 25 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 4-4 | 4-4 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 21 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| David Mirkovic F | 21 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 4-10 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Humrichous F | 28 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 20 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 17 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 6-7 | 1-1 |
| Brandon Lee G | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| AJ Redd G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Blake Fagbemi G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jason Jakstys, Ty Rodgers
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Cofie F | 35 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 5-12 | 2-3 |
| Kam Woods G | 33 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 2-7 | 0-1 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 32 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Alijah Arenas G | 18 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Terrance Williams II F | 29 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-9 | 2-3 |
| Jordan Marsh G | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-9 | 1-5 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Ryan Cornish G | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Brit Burden, Patrick O'Brien, Amarion Dickerson, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Chad Baker-Mazara, Rodney Rice
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -10.5
2 → USC
CloseILL -8.5
2 pts toward USC
Total
Open152.5
▼ 1
Close151.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
ILL -500 · USC +380
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -10.5 · closed ILL -8.5 · moved 2 toward USCmodel ILL -8.5 matches the line
model ILL -8.5 = line ✓
Opened 152.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 1 downmodel 160
model 160
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ILL -8.5 | ILL -8.7 | ILL +0.2 | W ILL covered |
| Total | 151.5 | 159.8 | Over 8.3 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | ILL 84.3 · USC 75.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ILL -5.3 | ILL -22.0 |
| 1H total | 74.7 | 86 |
| 1H projected score | ILL 40 · USC 34.7 | ILL 54 · USC 32 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| USC | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
ILL 0–1 USCUSC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ILL 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | USC 82 @ ILL 72 | ILL -13.5 | USC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois
26 games played
Straight up
21-5
81% wins
Against the spread
16-10
62% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-16
38% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vs RUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @ NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vs MD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @ PUR | W 88-82 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 29 | vs WASH | W 75-66 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | @NEB | W 78-69 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 4 | vsNU | W 84-44 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 7 | @ MSU | L 82-85 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 10 | vs WIS | L 90-92 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
| Feb 15 | vs IU | W 71-51 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | U 122 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+11.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−3.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
+10.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
+23.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
−1.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
−11.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
+11.5
covered 16didn’t cover 10avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+17.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−12.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
−7.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
−21.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
+24.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
+28.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
−31.5
over 10under 16avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
USC
24 games played
Straight up
17-7
71% wins
Against the spread
13-11
54% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-11
54% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vsWASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 9 | @ USD | W 94-81 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 14 | vs WSU | W 68-61 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTSA | W 97-70 | -25.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 2 | @ MICH | L 66-96 | +22.5 | L −7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 5 | @MSU | L 51-80 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 9 | @MINN | W 70-69 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 13 | vsMD | W 88-71 | -9.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 17 | vsPUR | L 64-69 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 21 | vsNU | L 68-74 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 25 | @WIS | W 73-71 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 158.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @IOWA | L 72-73 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 31 | vsRUTG | W 78-75 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 3 | vsIU | W 81-75 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 8 | @PSU | W 77-75 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 11 | @OSU | L 82-89 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
−1.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−5.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+1.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−7.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−17.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
+4.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+7.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
+4.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−12.5
25
@WIS
WISW 73-71
+9.5
28
@IOWA
IOWAL 72-73
+8.5
31
vsRUTG
RUTGW 78-75
−8.5
3
vsIU
IUW 81-75
+7.5
8
@PSU
PSUW 77-75
−1.5
11
@OSU
OSUL 82-89
+0.5
covered 13didn’t cover 11avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
+16.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−27.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+9.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−11.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−20.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
−8.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+8.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
−22.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−7.5
25
@WIS
WISW 73-71
−14.5
28
@IOWA
IOWAL 72-73
+3.5
31
vsRUTG
RUTGW 78-75
+6.5
3
vsIU
IUW 81-75
+2.5
8
@PSU
PSUW 77-75
−5.5
11
@OSU
OSUL 82-89
+18.5
over 13under 11avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois
21-5 overall · 12-3 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Indiana71–51
- Lvs Wisconsin90–92
- L@ Michigan St82–85
- Wvs Northwestern84–44
- W@ Nebraska78–69
3 days since their last game.
USC
17-7 overall · 7-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Ohio State82–89
- W@ Penn State77–75
- Wvs Indiana81–75
- Wvs Rutgers78–75
- L@ Iowa72–73
A week or more of rest.