USC Trojans at San Diego Toreros: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 9, 9:00 PM ETJenny Craig Pavilion · at San Diego

#36USCUSC94▲ winner

Final

#146USDSan Diego81final

Closing lineUSC -14.5✓ USD covered by 1.5

Closing total158.5Over by 16.5

Season records: USC and San Diego
USC	This season	USD
8-1	Record	2-5
5-4	ATS	2-5
6-3	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USC 90–74 USD · ✓ USC (92%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USC	38	56	94
USD	38	43	81

1st half: USC 38, USD 38 (tied). The model had USC by 9.7 and a total of 76.6 (actual 76).

Team stats

USC		USD
29-47 62%	Field goals	26-66 39%
9-16 56%	3-pointers	9-30 30%
27-35 77%	Free throws	20-24 83%
36 6 off	Rebounds	32 13 off
15	Assists	14
6	Steals	12
6	Blocks	3
21	Turnovers	14
21	Fouls	25
38	Points in paint	24
17	Fast-break points	12

Players

USC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chad Baker-Mazara G	37	31	6	6	8-11	5-6
Ezra Ausar F	32	29	7	3	10-12	0-0
Jerry Easter II G	32	8	5	1	2-6	0-1
Jacob Cofie F	23	2	5	2	1-1	0-0
Ryan Cornish G	20	2	0	1	0-2	0-2
Bench
Jordan Marsh G	29	6	5	2	2-6	0-1
Jaden Brownell F	20	16	2	0	6-7	4-5
Terrance Williams II F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Gabe Dynes C	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
EJ Neal Jr. G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jonah Goorin, Amarion Dickerson, Rodney Rice, Brit Burden, Patrick O'Brien, Alijah Arenas

USD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ty-Laur Johnson G	29	13	1	2	4-9	0-2
Alejandro Aviles F	26	7	6	1	3-5	0-0
Dominique Ford G	23	22	3	1	6-11	2-6
D'Arrae Goodwin F	11	2	1	0	0-5	0-2
Assane Diop F	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Juanse Gorosito G	25	10	2	4	4-10	2-5
Toneari Lane G	20	6	0	1	2-9	2-6
Vuk Boskovic F	19	6	4	3	2-4	2-4
Adrian McIntyre G	11	5	1	1	2-3	1-2
Gavin Ripp F	9	2	3	0	1-1	0-0
Tim Moore Jr. F	7	4	2	0	0-4	0-2
Brandon Benjamin G	6	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Emmanuel Callas G	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Piotr Winkowski C	2	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Neel Beniwal G	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Nick Del Bosque G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Josh Hecht G	1	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Kjay Bradley, Boden Grant, Caleb Versher

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USC -14.5	USC -15.8	USC +1.3	L USD covered
Total	158.5	163.8	Over 5.3	W Over
Projected score	—	USC 89.9 · USD 74

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USC -9.7	PK
1H total	76.6	76
1H projected score	USC 43.2 · USD 33.5	USC 38 · USD 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LLWWL	5-4	56%	1-0	5-4
USD WLLLL	2-5	29%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; USD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC UOOOO	6-3	67%	8-1
USD UOUOO	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USClast 9	8-1 89%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%
USDlast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

USC

9 games played

Straight up

8-1

89% wins

Against the spread

5-4

56% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-3

67% overs · avg +11.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-189%

W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-456%

W W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-367%

U O U O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCP	W 94-64	-24.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 9	vsMAN	W 114-83	-28.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 14	vsILST	W 87-67	-15.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 154
Nov 20	vsTROY	W 107-106	-18.5	L −17.5	159.5	O 213
Nov 24	vsBOIS	W 70-67	-3.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsHALL	W 83-81	-6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsASU	W 88-75	-4.5	W +8.5	161.5	O 163
Dec 2	@ORE	W 82-77	-2.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsWASH	L 76-84	-4.5	L −12.5	154.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-64

+5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+2.5

ILST

W 87-67

+4.5

TROY

W 107-106

−17.5

BOIS

W 70-67

−0.5

HALL

W 83-81

−4.5

ASU

W 88-75

+8.5

ORE

W 82-77

+2.5

WASH

L 76-84

−12.5

covered 5didn’t cover 4avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-64

−5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+41.5

ILST

W 87-67

−1.5

TROY

W 107-106

+53.5

BOIS

W 70-67

−18.5

HALL

W 83-81

+18.5

ASU

W 88-75

+1.5

ORE

W 82-77

+4.5

WASH

L 76-84

+5.5

over 6under 3avg +11.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Diego

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −6.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsIDST	L 68-71	-4.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsIDHO	W 78-74	+1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 18	vsGRAM	W 78-68	-6.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 146
Nov 21	vsUCR	L 71-85	-7.5	L −21.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 25	vsCBU	L 61-76	+7.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 30	@LBSU	L 72-76	-2.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 148
Dec 5	@SJSU	L 69-86	+6.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IDST

L 68-71

−7.5

IDHO

W 78-74

+5.5

GRAM

W 78-68

+3.5

UCR

L 71-85

−21.5

CBU

L 61-76

−7.5

LBSU

L 72-76

−6.5

SJSU

L 69-86

−10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IDST

L 68-71

−13.5

IDHO

W 78-74

−3.5

GRAM

W 78-68

−3.5

UCR

L 71-85

+3.5

CBU

L 61-76

−9.5

LBSU

L 72-76

+0.5

SJSU

L 69-86

+10.5

over 3under 4avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

USC Trojans at San Diego Toreros

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

USC

San Diego

USC

San Diego