Washington Huskies at USC Trojans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 6:00 PM ETGalen Center · at USC · Conference game

#56WASHWashington84▲ winner

Final

#36USCUSC AP #2476final

Closing lineUSC -4.5✓ WASH covered by 12.5

Closing total154.5Over by 5.5

Season records: Washington and USC
WASH	This season	USC
5-3	Record	8-0
4-4	ATS	5-3
4-4	O/U	5-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WASH 80–85 USC · ✗ USC (68%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WASH	30	54	84
USC	48	28	76

1st half: WASH 30, USC 48 (USC by 18). The model had USC by 3.0 and a total of 77.0 (actual 78).

Team stats

WASH		USC
29-64 45%	Field goals	22-60 37%
6-21 29%	3-pointers	8-23 35%
20-25 80%	Free throws	24-28 86%
45 14 off	Rebounds	31 9 off
14	Assists	13
5	Steals	3
5	Blocks	5
12	Turnovers	8
19	Fouls	18
40	Points in paint	24
11	Fast-break points	7

Players

WASH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Hannes Steinbach F	39	24	16	3	7-12	2-3
Wesley Yates III G	37	16	2	0	6-16	2-8
Desmond Claude G	34	22	2	4	8-16	1-4
Franck Kepnang C	28	9	8	0	3-5	0-0
Zoom Diallo G	18	9	5	2	4-7	1-2
Bench
Quimari Peterson G	28	2	5	4	1-5	0-3
Lathan Sommerville C	9	0	3	0	0-2	0-0
JJ Mandaquit G	5	2	1	1	0-0	0-0
Courtland Muldrew G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: BJ Roy, Christian Nitu, Jasir Rencher, Mady Traore, Jacob Ognacevic, Bryson Tucker

USC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jerry Easter II G	40	13	4	4	4-11	1-2
Chad Baker-Mazara G	34	21	6	2	5-14	3-9
Jacob Cofie F	31	4	6	1	2-6	0-1
Ezra Ausar F	27	9	3	2	3-9	0-0
Terrance Williams II F	8	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Jordan Marsh G	25	17	2	3	4-10	2-5
Jaden Brownell F	18	8	4	0	2-5	2-5
Gabe Dynes C	13	4	2	0	2-3	0-0
Ryan Cornish G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Patrick O'Brien, Brit Burden, Amarion Dickerson, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Alijah Arenas, Rodney Rice

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USC -4.5	USC -5.3	USC +0.8	L WASH covered
Total	154.5	164.6	Over 10.1	W Over
Projected score	—	WASH 79.6 · USC 84.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USC -3.0	USC -18.0
1H total	77.0	78
1H projected score	WASH 37 · USC 40	WASH 30 · USC 48

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH WLWLW	4-4	50%	1-1	1-1
USC LLLWW	5-3	63%	2-1	5-3

Venue/role: WASH away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH UOOUO	4-4	50%	5-3
USC OUOOO	5-3	63%	8-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASHlast 8	5-3 63%	4-4 50%	4-4 50%
USClast 8	8-0 100%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

WASH 0–8 USCUSC leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · USC has won the last 8 meetings · WASH 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 5, 2024-25	WASH 61 @ USC 92	USC -6.5	USC W
Dec 7, 2024-25	USC 85 @ WASH 61	WASH -4.5	USC W
Mar 13, 2023-24	USC 80 vs WASH 74	WASH +3.5	USC W
Mar 2, 2023-24	USC 82 @ WASH 75	WASH -4.5	USC W
Feb 4, 2022-23	WASH 74 @ USC 80	USC -10.5	WASH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Washington

8 games played

Straight up

5-3

63% wins

Against the spread

4-4

50% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-363%

W W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-450%

W L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-450%

U O U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUAPB	W 94-50	-34.5	W +9.5	160.5	U 144
Nov 6	vsDEN	W 84-70	-27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 9	@BAY	L 69-78	+6.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	@WSU	W 81-69	-8.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 150
Nov 18	vsSOU	W 99-93	-23.5	L −17.5	157.5	O 192
Nov 27	vsNEV	W 83-66	-3.5	W +13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsCOLO	L 68-81	-2.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 149
Dec 3	vsUCLA	L 80-82	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

+9.5

DEN

W 84-70

−13.5

BAY

L 69-78

−2.5

WSU

W 81-69

+3.5

SOU

W 99-93

−17.5

NEV

W 83-66

+13.5

COLO

L 68-81

−15.5

UCLA

L 80-82

+0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 4avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

−16.5

DEN

W 84-70

+0.5

BAY

L 69-78

−9.5

WSU

W 81-69

−8.5

SOU

W 99-93

+34.5

NEV

W 83-66

+3.5

COLO

L 68-81

−2.5

UCLA

L 80-82

+20.5

over 4under 4avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

USC

8 games played

Straight up

8-0

100% wins

Against the spread

5-3

63% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-3

63% overs · avg +11.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-0100%

W W W W W W W W

8 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-363%

W W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-363%

U O U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCP	W 94-64	-24.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 9	vsMAN	W 114-83	-28.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 14	vsILST	W 87-67	-15.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 154
Nov 20	vsTROY	W 107-106	-18.5	L −17.5	159.5	O 213
Nov 24	vsBOIS	W 70-67	-3.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsHALL	W 83-81	-6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsASU	W 88-75	-4.5	W +8.5	161.5	O 163
Dec 2	@ORE	W 82-77	-2.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-64

+5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+2.5

ILST

W 87-67

+4.5

TROY

W 107-106

−17.5

BOIS

W 70-67

−0.5

HALL

W 83-81

−4.5

ASU

W 88-75

+8.5

ORE

W 82-77

+2.5

covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-64

−5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+41.5

ILST

W 87-67

−1.5

TROY

W 107-106

+53.5

BOIS

W 70-67

−18.5

HALL

W 83-81

+18.5

ASU

W 88-75

+1.5

ORE

W 82-77

+4.5

over 5under 3avg +11.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Washington Huskies at USC Trojans

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Washington

USC

Washington

USC