UAlbany Great Danes at Columbia Lions: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 5:30 PM ETLevien Gymnasium · at Columbia

#301UALBUAlbany65final

Final

#170COLUColumbia93▲ winner

Closing lineCOLU -13.5✓ COLU covered by 14.5

Closing total144.5Over by 13.5

Season records: UAlbany and Columbia
UALB	This season	COLU
0-6	Record	7-1
2-4	ATS	7-1
1-5	O/U	4-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UALB 67–82 COLU · ✓ COLU (90%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UALB	34	31	65
COLU	36	57	93

1st half: UALB 34, COLU 36 (COLU by 2). The model had COLU by 8.8 and a total of 69.7 (actual 70).

Team stats

UALB		COLU
22-60 37%	Field goals	34-62 55%
3-24 13%	3-pointers	9-25 36%
18-27 67%	Free throws	16-19 84%
26 12 off	Rebounds	46 15 off
15	Assists	19
7	Steals	6
4	Blocks	4
9	Turnovers	12
17	Fouls	20
24	Points in paint	40
16	Fast-break points	10

Players

UALB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amir Lindsey G	37	10	2	6	3-9	1-4
Nasir Muhammad PG	32	12	1	2	4-15	2-9
Isaac Abidde F	28	10	2	1	3-10	0-5
Zacharie Matulu G	25	4	4	2	2-6	0-2
Okechukwu Okeke F	21	0	4	1	0-3	0-0
Bench
Jaden Kempson G	27	13	3	3	4-9	0-2
Ife West-Ingram F	19	11	4	0	5-6	0-1
Ma'Kye Taylor F	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Tarique Foster G	4	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Bautista Giralt C	3	3	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Will Richardson, Abdoulaye Fall, Wilkin Paulino, Miles Rose, Yaya Keita, Sully Adewale

COLU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kenny Noland G	31	16	5	5	5-12	0-4
Mason Ritter F	27	4	4	2	2-3	0-0
Miles Franklin G	26	6	4	2	3-8	0-4
Ryan Soulis F	26	6	6	2	2-5	0-1
Blair Thompson F	25	9	12	0	3-8	1-3
Bench
Gerard O'Keefe G	21	24	0	2	9-12	6-9
Hampton Sanders G	17	9	1	2	4-5	1-2
Connor Igoe F	15	13	2	2	4-4	1-1
Richard Nweke F	7	6	4	2	2-3	0-0
Leland Coleman F	3	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Edwin Bai G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Nigel Clarkson, Zine Eddine Bedri, Dan Vessey, Avery Brown, Josiah Cunningham, Nicolo Romanelli

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLU -13.5	COLU -14.9	COLU +1.4	W COLU covered
Total	144.5	148.8	Over 4.3	W Over
Projected score	—	UALB 67 · COLU 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLU -8.8	COLU -2.0
1H total	69.7	70
1H projected score	UALB 30.4 · COLU 39.3	UALB 34 · COLU 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UALB LLWWL	2-4	33%	1-3	2-4
COLU WWWWL	7-1	88%	3-1	6-1

Venue/role: UALB away, as underdog; COLU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UALB UUUUO	1-5	17%	0-6
COLU UOOOU	4-4	50%	7-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UALBlast 6	0-6 0%	2-4 33%	1-5 17%
COLUlast 8	7-1 88%	7-1 88%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UALB 3–0 COLUUALB leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · UALB has won the last 3 meetings · UALB 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 4, 2024-25	COLU 73 @ UALB 88	UALB +5.5	UALB W
Nov 11, 2023-24	UALB 78 @ COLU 75	COLU -4.5	UALB W
Dec 11, 2021-22	COLU 59 @ UALB 60	UALB -7	COLU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UAlbany

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −5.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MARQ	L 53-80	+24.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 8	@MASS	L 62-83	+9.5	L −11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 14	@URI	L 61-80	+15.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 21	@SIE	L 63-73	+10.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 28	vsCOLG	L 67-69	+7.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsFOR	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−2.5

MASS

L 62-83

−11.5

URI

L 61-80

−3.5

SIE

L 63-73

+0.5

COLG

L 67-69

+5.5

FOR

L 68-88

−9.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−16.5

MASS

L 62-83

−10.5

URI

L 61-80

−9.5

SIE

L 63-73

−4.5

COLG

L 67-69

−5.5

FOR

L 68-88

+12.5

over 1under 5avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Columbia

8 games played

Straight up

7-1

88% wins

Against the spread

7-1

88% covers · avg +9.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-188%

W L W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-188%

W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-450%

U U O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NHVN	W 71-53	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 10	@CONN	L 62-89	+32.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsUML	W 86-72	-13.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsBU	W 54-49	-4.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 21	@LEH	W 82-67	-2.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 149
Nov 23	vsLONG	W 95-70	-3.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 26	@FAIR	W 106-77	-3.5	W +25.5	150.5	O 183
Dec 3	vsHOF	W 72-70	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

+10.5

CONN

L 62-89

+5.5

UML

W 86-72

+0.5

W 54-49

+0.5

LEH

W 82-67

+12.5

LONG

W 95-70

+21.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+25.5

HOF

W 72-70

−1.5

covered 7didn’t cover 1avg +9.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

−24.5

CONN

L 62-89

−4.5

UML

W 86-72

+1.5

W 54-49

−41.5

LEH

W 82-67

+5.5

LONG

W 95-70

+11.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+32.5

HOF

W 72-70

−2.5

over 4under 4avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UAlbany Great Danes at Columbia Lions

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UAlbany

Columbia

UAlbany

Columbia