UAlbany Great Danes vs Fordham Rams: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 7:30 PM ETPlace Bell · Neutral site

#301UALBUAlbany68final

Final

#100FORFordham88▲ winner

Closing lineFOR -10.5✓ FOR covered by 9.5

Closing total143.5Over by 12.5

Season records: UAlbany and Fordham
UALB	This season	FOR
0-5	Record	2-2
2-3	ATS	2-2
0-5	O/U	0-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UALB 67–74 FOR · ✓ FOR (75%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UALB	33	35	68
FOR	42	46	88

1st half: UALB 33, FOR 42 (FOR by 9). The model had FOR by 4.4 and a total of 66.2 (actual 75).

Team stats

UALB		FOR
26-70 37%	Field goals	32-53 60%
6-27 22%	3-pointers	10-21 48%
10-13 77%	Free throws	14-21 67%
32 17 off	Rebounds	35 10 off
15	Assists	18
10	Steals	5
2	Blocks	5
9	Turnovers	14
20	Fouls	13
26	Points in paint	36
8	Fast-break points	12

Players

UALB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amir Lindsey G	34	2	2	2	1-12	0-4
Zacharie Matulu G	32	8	10	4	4-9	0-2
Jaden Kempson G	29	15	1	3	5-13	2-5
Okechukwu Okeke F	26	6	5	0	3-5	0-0
Isaac Abidde F	15	15	0	0	6-10	2-5
Bench
Nasir Muhammad PG	25	14	4	4	5-13	2-9
Ma'Kye Taylor F	20	0	3	0	0-2	0-2
Yaya Keita C	10	8	2	2	2-3	0-0
Miles Rose G	7	0	1	0	0-3	0-0
Ife West-Ingram F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Wilkin Paulino, Abdoulaye Fall, Sully Adewale, Bautista Giralt, Tarique Foster, Will Richardson

FOR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dejour Reaves G	34	17	7	5	7-13	3-5
Christian Henry G	32	29	7	7	9-12	2-3
Akira Jacobs F	31	16	3	1	5-6	3-4
Rikus Schulte F	29	14	7	3	7-7	0-0
Louis Lesmond G	27	2	3	2	1-8	0-4
Bench
Marcus Greene G	18	5	1	0	2-4	1-3
Abass Bodija F	14	2	2	0	0-0	0-0
Roor Akhuar F	7	3	0	0	1-3	1-2
Kingston Price G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jameson O'Toole G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Aidan Crotty G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Max Miller G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Demitri Gardner, Jace Howard, Jack Whitbourn, Ryan Pettis, Zarique Nutter

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FOR -10.5	FOR -7.5	UALB +3.0	L FOR covered
Total	143.5	141.2	Under 2.3	L Over
Projected score	—	UALB 66.8 · FOR 74.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FOR -4.4	FOR -9.0
1H total	66.2	75
1H projected score	UALB 30.9 · FOR 35.3	UALB 33 · FOR 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UALB LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-0	2-3
FOR LLWW	2-2	50%	—	1-2

Venue/role: UALB neutral site, as underdog; FOR neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UALB UUUUU	0-5	0%	0-5
FOR UUUU	0-4	0%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UALBlast 5	0-5 0%	2-3 40%	0-5 0%
FORlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UALB 0–1 FORFOR leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UALB 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2024-25	UALB 83 @ FOR 87	FOR -6.5	UALB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UAlbany

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-5

0% overs · avg −9.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-50%

U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MARQ	L 53-80	+24.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 8	@MASS	L 62-83	+9.5	L −11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 14	@URI	L 61-80	+15.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 21	@SIE	L 63-73	+10.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 28	vsCOLG	L 67-69	+7.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−2.5

MASS

L 62-83

−11.5

URI

L 61-80

−3.5

SIE

L 63-73

+0.5

COLG

L 67-69

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−16.5

MASS

L 62-83

−10.5

URI

L 61-80

−9.5

SIE

L 63-73

−4.5

COLG

L 67-69

−5.5

over 0under 5avg −9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fordham

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −16 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNJIT	L 61-72	-14.5	L −25.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	vsWAG	W 63-61	-12.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 124
Nov 14	@IONA	L 71-76	+5.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 147
Nov 20	vsLIU	W 69-53	-4.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NJIT

L 61-72

−25.5

WAG

W 63-61

−10.5

IONA

L 71-76

+0.5

LIU

W 69-53

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NJIT

L 61-72

−14.5

WAG

W 63-61

−15.5

IONA

L 71-76

−10.5

LIU

W 69-53

−23.5

over 0under 4avg −16 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UAlbany Great Danes vs Fordham Rams

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UAlbany

Fordham

UAlbany

Fordham