Columbia Lions at Fairfield Stags: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 7:00 PM ETLeo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield

#170COLUColumbia106▲ winner

Final

#239FAIRFairfield77final

Closing lineCOLU -3.5✓ COLU covered by 25.5

Closing total150.5Over by 32.5

Season records: Columbia and Fairfield
COLU	This season	FAIR
5-1	Record	4-2
6-0	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: COLU 77–73 FAIR · ✓ COLU (63%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
COLU	46	60	106
FAIR	29	48	77

1st half: COLU 46, FAIR 29 (COLU by 17). The model had COLU by 2.5 and a total of 70.1 (actual 75).

Team stats

COLU		FAIR
40-64 63%	Field goals	29-71 41%
11-20 55%	3-pointers	8-25 32%
15-16 94%	Free throws	11-16 69%
40 11 off	Rebounds	30 17 off
19	Assists	8
5	Steals	6
2	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	10
13	Fouls	14
58	Points in paint	28
11	Fast-break points	9

Players

COLU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Blair Thompson F	28	23	6	0	9-12	4-6
Mason Ritter F	25	8	6	3	4-4	0-0
Kenny Noland G	25	20	1	7	6-11	2-4
Miles Franklin G	24	18	7	2	6-10	1-3
Ryan Soulis F	24	10	3	2	3-7	2-3
Bench
Gerard O'Keefe G	27	12	3	2	5-8	2-4
Hampton Sanders G	15	2	3	3	1-2	0-0
Richard Nweke F	15	2	6	0	1-2	0-0
Connor Igoe F	14	9	2	0	4-7	0-0
Leland Coleman F	2	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Edwin Bai G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Nigel Clarkson, Nicolo Romanelli, Dan Vessey, Zine Eddine Bedri, Avery Brown, Josiah Cunningham

FAIR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brandon Benjamin F	34	6	11	0	3-10	0-1
Declan Wucherpfennig G	32	13	3	3	4-7	2-3
Braden Sparks G	21	8	0	0	3-10	0-4
Deuce Turner G	21	14	0	1	5-12	1-4
Eric Mejia G	12	1	0	1	0-2	0-0
Bench
Cam Estevez G	21	19	0	0	8-11	2-3
Tony Williams G	19	5	1	3	2-6	1-4
Nasir Rodriguez G	16	9	3	0	3-7	2-3
Halon Rawlins G	10	2	2	0	1-6	0-3
Isaac Munkadi F	9	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Michael Rogan G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Peyton Smith, Tanner Ostop, Aidan May, Joe Ganton, Luke Davidson, Matt Curtis, Ryan Zan, Noah Best

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLU -3.5	COLU -3.8	COLU +0.3	W COLU covered
Total	150.5	149.7	Under 0.8	L Over
Projected score	—	COLU 76.7 · FAIR 72.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLU -2.5	COLU -17.0
1H total	70.1	75
1H projected score	COLU 36.3 · FAIR 33.8	COLU 46 · FAIR 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLU WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	5-0
FAIR WLLLW	3-3	50%	0-2	1-1

Venue/role: COLU away, as favorite; FAIR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLU UOUOO	3-3	50%	5-1
FAIR UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLUlast 6	5-1 83%	6-0 100%	3-3 50%
FAIRlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

COLU 1–0 FAIRCOLU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · COLU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 28, 2024-25	FAIR 72 @ COLU 85	COLU -9.5	COLU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Columbia

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −8.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NHVN	W 71-53	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 10	@CONN	L 62-89	+32.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsUML	W 86-72	-13.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsBU	W 54-49	-4.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 21	@LEH	W 82-67	-2.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 149
Nov 23	vsLONG	W 95-70	-3.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

+10.5

CONN

L 62-89

+5.5

UML

W 86-72

+0.5

W 54-49

+0.5

LEH

W 82-67

+12.5

LONG

W 95-70

+21.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

−24.5

CONN

L 62-89

−4.5

UML

W 86-72

+1.5

W 54-49

−41.5

LEH

W 82-67

+5.5

LONG

W 95-70

+11.5

over 3under 3avg −8.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fairfield

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +7.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PSU	L 68-76	+15.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NJIT	W 74-53	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 10	@HALL	L 59-82	+14.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 14	vsSTO	W 73-71	-6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 144
Nov 16	vsL-MD	W 85-82	-5.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 22	@LEM	W 97-83	-1.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

+7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

+14.5

HALL

L 59-82

−8.5

STO

W 73-71

−4.5

L-MD

W 85-82

−2.5

LEM

W 97-83

+12.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

−7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

−18.5

HALL

L 59-82

+3.5

STO

W 73-71

+0.5

L-MD

W 85-82

+31.5

LEM

W 97-83

+34.5

over 4under 2avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Columbia Lions at Fairfield Stags

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Columbia

Fairfield

Columbia

Fairfield