Kohl Center · at Wisconsin · Conference game
Closing line
WIS -7.5✓ USC covered by 9.5
WIS -7.5✓ USC covered by 9.5Closing total158.5Under by 14.5
 USC | This season | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | Record | 14-5 |
| 9-9 | ATS | 11-8 |
| 9-9 | O/U | 12-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USC 80–86 WIS · ✗ WIS (71%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 39 | 34 | 73 |
| WIS | 41 | 30 | 71 |
1st half: USC 39, WIS 41 (WIS by 2). The model had WIS by 3.7 and a total of 77.4 (actual 80).
Team stats
| USC | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-61 41% | Field goals | 23-67 34% |
| 6-24 25% | 3-pointers | 9-37 24% |
| 17-23 74% | Free throws | 16-20 80% |
| 41 13 off | Rebounds | 42 18 off |
| 9 | Assists | 10 |
| 3 | Steals | 3 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 38 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 10-22 | 5-11 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 38 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Jacob Cofie F | 36 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 4-11 | 1-4 |
| Kam Woods G | 34 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Alijah Arenas G | 18 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3-12 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ryan Cornish G | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 12 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Terrance Williams II, Rodney Rice, Patrick O'Brien, Brit Burden, Amarion Dickerson, Jonah Goorin, Jordan Marsh, EJ Neal Jr.
| WIS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Boyd G | 38 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 10-17 | 1-5 |
| Nolan Winter F | 38 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5-13 | 2-6 |
| John Blackwell G | 36 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 3-13 | 1-7 |
| Andrew Rohde G | 31 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2-10 | 2-7 |
| Aleksas Bieliauskas F | 18 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Braeden Carrington G | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Austin Rapp F | 14 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-7 | 2-6 |
| Jack Janicki G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Will Garlock F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Hayden Jones, Riccardo Greppi, Zach Kinziger, Jack Robison, Elijah Gray, Isaac Gard
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketWIS -7.5
ModelWIS -6.4
Model edgeUSC +1.1
W USC covered
Total
Market158.5
Model165.3
Model edgeOver 6.8
L Under
Projected score
USC 79.5 · WIS 85.9
USC 73 · WIS 71
Win probability
WIS 71%
1st half
Spread
WIS -3.7
WIS -2.0
Total
77.4
80 points
Projected score
USC 36.8 · WIS 40.5
USC 39 · WIS 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWIS -7.5
no move
CloseWIS -7.5
No change since the open
Total
Open159.5
▼ 1
Close158.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
USC +285 · WIS -360
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WIS -7.5 · unchangedmodel WIS -6.5
model WIS -6.5
Opened 159.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 1 downmodel 165.5
model 165.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| WIS | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
USC 0–2 WISWIS leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · WIS has won the last 2 meetings · USC 0-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | WIS 84 @ USC 69 | USC -1.5 | WIS W |
| Nov 25, 2022-23 | USC 59 vs WIS 64 | WIS -1.5 | WIS W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
USC
18 games played
Straight up
13-5
72% wins
Against the spread
9-9
50% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-9
50% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs WASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 9 | @ USD | W 94-81 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 14 | vs WSU | W 68-61 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTSA | W 97-70 | -25.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 2 | @ MICH | L 66-96 | +22.5 | L −7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 5 | @ MSU | L 51-80 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 9 | @ MINN | W 70-69 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 13 | vs MD | W 88-71 | -9.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 17 | vs PUR | L 64-69 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 21 | vs NU | L 68-74 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
−1.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−5.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+1.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−7.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−17.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
+4.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+7.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
+4.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−12.5
covered 9didn’t cover 9avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
+16.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−27.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+9.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−11.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−20.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
−8.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+8.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
−22.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−7.5
over 9under 9avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Wisconsin
19 games played
Straight up
14-5
74% wins
Against the spread
11-8
58% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-7
63% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAM | W 96-64 | -20.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 7 | vs NIU | W 97-72 | -28.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 11 | vs BALL | W 86-55 | -26.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 17 | vs SIUE | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 21 | @ BYU | L 70-98 | +4.5 | L −23.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 27 | vs PROV | W 104-83 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs TCU | L 63-74 | -5.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vsNU | W 85-73 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs MARQ | W 96-76 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | @ NEB | L 60-90 | +1.5 | L −28.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 19 | vs VILL | L 66-76 | -3.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 22 | vs CMU | W 88-61 | -26.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 30 | vs MILW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 157.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vsPUR | L 73-89 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 6 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 10 | @MICH | W 91-88 | +19.5 | W +22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 13 | @MINN | W 78-75 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 17 | vs RUTG | W 96-87 | -15.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 22 | @ PSU | W 98-71 | -5.5 | W +21.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+11.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
−3.5
11
vsBALL
BALLW 86-55
+4.5
17
vsSIUE
SIUEW 94-69
−0.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 70-98
−23.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 104-83
+14.5
28
vsTCU
TCUL 63-74
−16.5
3
vsNU
NUW 85-73
+1.5
6
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-76
+8.5
10
@NEB
NEBL 60-90
−28.5
19
vsVILL
VILLL 66-76
−13.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 88-61
+0.5
30
vsMILW
MILWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsPUR
PURL 73-89
−10.5
6
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+4.5
10
@MICH
MICHW 91-88
+22.5
13
@MINN
MINNW 78-75
+1.5
17
vsRUTG
RUTGW 96-87
−6.5
22
@PSU
PSUW 98-71
+21.5
covered 11didn’t cover 8avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+8.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
+11.5
11
vsBALL
BALLW 86-55
−15.5
17
vsSIUE
SIUEW 94-69
+16.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 70-98
+2.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 104-83
+20.5
28
vsTCU
TCUL 63-74
−20.5
3
vsNU
NUW 85-73
+2.5
6
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-76
+11.5
10
@NEB
NEBL 60-90
−8.5
19
vsVILL
VILLL 66-76
−10.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 88-61
−3.5
30
vsMILW
MILWW 80-60
−17.5
3
vsPUR
PURL 73-89
+8.5
6
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
−0.5
10
@MICH
MICHW 91-88
+9.5
13
@MINN
MINNW 78-75
+6.5
17
vsRUTG
RUTGW 96-87
+33.5
22
@PSU
PSUW 98-71
+11.5
over 12under 7avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
USC
13-5 overall · 3-5 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Northwestern68–74
- Lvs Purdue64–69
- Wvs Maryland88–71
- W@ Minnesota70–69
- L@ Michigan St51–80
4 days since their last game.
Wisconsin
14-5 overall · 6-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Penn State98–71
- Wvs Rutgers96–87
- W@ Minnesota78–75
- W@ Michigan91–88
- Wvs UCLA80–72
3 days since their last game.