Breslin Center · at Michigan St · Conference game
Closing line
MSU -11.5✓ MSU covered by 17.5
MSU -11.5✓ MSU covered by 17.5Closing total151.5Under by 20.5
 USC | This season | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2 | Record | 12-2 |
| 6-7 | ATS | 6-8 |
| 8-5 | O/U | 5-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USC 73–81 MSU · ✓ MSU (77%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 17 | 34 | 51 |
| MSU | 33 | 47 | 80 |
1st half: USC 17, MSU 33 (MSU by 16). The model had MSU by 5.0 and a total of 72.1 (actual 50).
Team stats
| USC | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 18-55 33% | Field goals | 30-60 50% |
| 3-17 18% | 3-pointers | 7-22 32% |
| 12-16 75% | Free throws | 13-18 72% |
| 30 8 off | Rebounds | 39 10 off |
| 10 | Assists | 15 |
| 6 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 6 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 25 |
Players
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Cofie F | 33 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-4 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 30 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 5-11 | 0-0 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 30 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 4-9 | 0-2 |
| Ryan Cornish G | 21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Terrance Williams II F | 19 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kam Woods G | 21 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-8 | 1-5 |
| Jordan Marsh G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Amarion Dickerson, Brit Burden, Patrick O'Brien, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Alijah Arenas, Rodney Rice
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 28 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 6-13 | 0-3 |
| Carson Cooper C | 27 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 6-6 | 3-3 |
| Coen Carr F | 24 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 6-14 | 1-5 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kur Teng G | 18 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-2 |
| Jordan Scott F | 18 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Cam Ward F | 14 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Trey Fort G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Nick Sanders G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brennan Walton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Colin Walton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kaleb Glenn
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -10.5
1 → MSU
CloseMSU -11.5
1 pt toward MSU
Total
Open150.5
▲ 1
Close151.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
USC +575 · MSU -850
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -10.5 · closed MSU -11.5 · moved 1 toward MSUmodel MSU -8.5
model MSU -8.5
Opened 150.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 1 upmodel 154
model 154
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSU -11.5 | MSU -8.6 | USC +2.9 | L MSU covered |
| Total | 151.5 | 154.0 | Over 2.5 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | USC 72.7 · MSU 81.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSU -5.0 | MSU -16.0 |
| 1H total | 72.1 | 50 |
| 1H projected score | USC 33.6 · MSU 38.6 | USC 17 · MSU 33 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 8-2 80% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
| MSU | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
USC 1–1 MSUSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · USC 1-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | MSU 64 @ USC 70 | USC +3.5 | USC W |
| Mar 17, 2022-23 | USC 62 vs MSU 72 | MSU -2.5 | MSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
USC
13 games played
Straight up
11-2
85% wins
Against the spread
6-7
46% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-5
62% overs · avg +6.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs WASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 9 | @ USD | W 94-81 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 14 | vs WSU | W 68-61 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTSA | W 97-70 | -25.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 2 | @ MICH | L 66-96 | +22.5 | L −7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
−1.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−5.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+1.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−7.5
covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
+16.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−27.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+9.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−11.5
over 8under 5avg +6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan St
14 games played
Straight up
12-2
86% wins
Against the spread
6-8
43% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-9
36% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @ NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
covered 6didn’t cover 8avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
over 5under 9avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
USC
11-2 overall · 1-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Michigan66–96
- Wvs UTSA97–70
- Wvs Washington St68–61
- W@ San Diego94–81
- Lvs Washington76–84
3 days since their last game.
Michigan St
12-2 overall · 2-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Nebraska56–58
- Wvs Cornell114–97
- Wvs Oakland79–70
- Wvs Toledo92–69
- W@ Penn State76–72
3 days since their last game.