Little Caesars Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
MSU -19.5✓ OAK covered by 10.5
MSU -19.5✓ OAK covered by 10.5Closing total155.5Under by 6.5
 OAK | This season | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | Record | 10-1 |
| 6-5 | ATS | 5-6 |
| 8-3 | O/U | 4-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: OAK 69–87 MSU · ✓ MSU (94%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 36 | 34 | 70 |
| MSU | 39 | 40 | 79 |
1st half: OAK 36, MSU 39 (MSU by 3). The model had MSU by 10.7 and a total of 72.8 (actual 75).
Team stats
| OAK | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-56 43% | Field goals | 28-61 46% |
| 10-22 45% | 3-pointers | 6-22 27% |
| 12-13 92% | Free throws | 17-23 74% |
| 26 6 off | Rebounds | 42 15 off |
| 15 | Assists | 19 |
| 8 | Steals | 4 |
| 3 | Blocks | 11 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| OAK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody Robinson G | 40 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4-10 | 3-6 |
| Michael Houge F | 36 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-3 |
| Ziare Wells G | 32 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 6-10 | 3-3 |
| Tuburu Naivalurua F | 32 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 6-11 | 2-2 |
| Isaac Garrett F | 32 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brett White II G | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-6 |
| Khoi Thurmon G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Warren Marshall IV G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nate Deer, Nassim Mashhour, Hamoudy Mashhour, Donny Yeager, William Kassi, MJ Yeager
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 31 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 31 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Coen Carr F | 26 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 8-13 | 1-4 |
| Carson Cooper C | 24 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kur Teng G | 20 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 4-11 | 2-6 |
| Jordan Scott F | 18 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 15 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Cam Ward F | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Colin Walton, Brennan Walton, Nick Sanders, Kaleb Glenn
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -20.5
1 → OAK
CloseMSU -19.5
1 pt toward OAK
Total
Open155.5
no move
Close155.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
OAK +1400 · MSU -3200
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -20.5 · closed MSU -19.5 · moved 1 toward OAKmodel MSU -18
model MSU -18
Opened 155.5 · unchangedmodel 155.5 matches the line
model 155.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSU -19.5 | MSU -18.0 | OAK +1.5 | W OAK covered |
| Total | 155.5 | 155.6 | Over 0.1 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | OAK 68.8 · MSU 86.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSU -10.7 | MSU -3.0 |
| 1H total | 72.8 | 75 |
| 1H projected score | OAK 31.1 · MSU 41.8 | OAK 36 · MSU 39 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
| MSU | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
OAK 0–4 MSUMSU leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · MSU has won the last 4 meetings · OAK 1-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2024-25 | MSU 77 vs OAK 58 | OAK +16.5 | MSU W |
| Dec 18, 2023-24 | OAK 62 @ MSU 79 | MSU -15.5 | MSU W |
| Dec 21, 2022-23 | OAK 54 @ MSU 67 | MSU -20.5 | OAK W |
| Dec 21, 2021-22 | MSU 90 vs OAK 78 | OAK +9.5 | MSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Oakland
11 games played
Straight up
5-6
45% wins
Against the spread
6-5
55% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-3
73% overs · avg +12.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ MICH | L 78-121 | +24.5 | L −18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 7 | @ PUR | L 77-87 | +31.5 | W +21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | @ HOU | L 45-78 | +30.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 17 | @ UCF | L 83-87 | +13.5 | W +9.5 | 163.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 21 | @ EMU | L 91-97 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 24 | vs LAM | W 83-68 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 25 | @ MONT | W 95-87 | +4.5 | W +12.5 | 162.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 3 | vs PFW | W 101-92 | -4.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 6 | vs TOL | W 98-97 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ UNI | L 63-75 | +8.5 | L −3.5 | 149.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | @ NKU | W 82-77 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@MICH
MICHL 78-121
−18.5
7
@PUR
PURL 77-87
+21.5
12
@HOU
HOUL 45-78
−2.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 83-87
+9.5
21
@EMU
EMUL 91-97
−7.5
24
vsLAM
LAMW 83-68
+11.5
25
@MONT
MONTW 95-87
+12.5
3
vsPFW
PFWW 101-92
+4.5
6
vsTOL
TOLW 98-97
−3.5
13
@UNI
UNIL 63-75
−3.5
17
@NKU
NKUW 82-77
+8.5
covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@MICH
MICHL 78-121
+42.5
7
@PUR
PURL 77-87
+5.5
12
@HOU
HOUL 45-78
−15.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 83-87
+6.5
21
@EMU
EMUL 91-97
+34.5
24
vsLAM
LAMW 83-68
+2.5
25
@MONT
MONTW 95-87
+19.5
3
vsPFW
PFWW 101-92
+30.5
6
vsTOL
TOLW 98-97
+28.5
13
@UNI
UNIL 63-75
−11.5
17
@NKU
NKUW 82-77
−4.5
over 8under 3avg +12.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan St
11 games played
Straight up
10-1
91% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-7
36% overs · avg −5.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vsTOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
over 4under 7avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Oakland
5-6 overall · 2-0 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ N Kentucky82–77
- L@ Northern Iowa63–75
- Wvs Toledo98–97
- Wvs Purdue FW101–92
- W@ Montana95–87
3 days since their last game.
Michigan St
10-1 overall · 2-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Toledo92–69
- W@ Penn State76–72
- Lvs Duke60–66
- Wvs Iowa71–52
- Wvs North Carolina74–58
4 days since their last game.