Truist Arena · at N Kentucky · Conference game
Closing line
NKU -3.5✓ OAK covered by 8.5
NKU -3.5✓ OAK covered by 8.5Closing total163.5Under by 4.5
 OAK | This season | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | Record | 6-3 |
| 5-5 | ATS | 5-4 |
| 8-2 | O/U | 6-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: OAK 82–83 NKU · ✗ NKU (53%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 41 | 41 | 82 |
| NKU | 38 | 39 | 77 |
1st half: OAK 41, NKU 38 (OAK by 3). The model had NKU by 0.3 and a total of 77.0 (actual 79).
Team stats
| OAK | NKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-61 46% | Field goals | 31-70 44% |
| 6-18 33% | 3-pointers | 6-26 23% |
| 20-29 69% | Free throws | 9-12 75% |
| 39 12 off | Rebounds | 38 13 off |
| 17 | Assists | 19 |
| 7 | Steals | 5 |
| 0 | Blocks | 9 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 18 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| OAK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody Robinson G | 37 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
| Isaac Garrett F | 35 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 6-13 | 0-2 |
| Ziare Wells G | 31 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4-8 | 1-1 |
| Michael Houge F | 31 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 7-14 | 0-0 |
| Tuburu Naivalurua F | 22 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brett White II G | 27 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4-11 | 2-8 |
| Khoi Thurmon G | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Warren Marshall IV G | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Hamoudy Mashhour, Donny Yeager, William Kassi, MJ Yeager, Nassim Mashhour, Nate Deer
| NKU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LJ Wells F | 34 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 8-15 | 0-2 |
| Kael Robinson F | 32 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 10-16 | 2-7 |
| Ethan Elliott G | 32 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Dan Gherezgher G | 31 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-14 | 1-9 |
| Tae Dozier G | 29 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Donovan Oday G | 26 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-4 |
| Donovan Rakotonanahary F | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Tolliver F | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bryce Darbyshire G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Shawn Nelson, Addison Archer, Juanma Ruiz, JJ Apathjang, Mitchel Minor
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNKU -1.5
2 → NKU
CloseNKU -3.5
2 pts toward NKU
Total
Open165.5
▼ 2
Close163.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
OAK +150 · NKU -180
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NKU -1.5 · closed NKU -3.5 · moved 2 toward NKUmodel NKU -0.5
model NKU -0.5
Opened 165.5 · closed 163.5 · moved 2 downmodel 164.5
model 164.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NKU -3.5 | NKU -0.7 | OAK +2.8 | W OAK covered |
| Total | 163.5 | 164.6 | Over 1.1 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | OAK 81.9 · NKU 82.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | NKU -0.3 | OAK -3.0 |
| 1H total | 77.0 | 79 |
| 1H projected score | OAK 38.4 · NKU 38.6 | OAK 41 · NKU 38 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
| NKUlast 9 | 6-3 67% | 5-4 56% | 6-3 67% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
OAK 3–6 NKUNKU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · OAK 2-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | NKU 84 @ OAK 75 | OAK -6.5 | NKU W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | OAK 68 @ NKU 53 | NKU -3.5 | OAK W |
| Feb 8, 2023-24 | OAK 89 @ NKU 99 | NKU -0.5 | NKU W |
| Jan 10, 2023-24 | NKU 65 @ OAK 70 | OAK -5.5 | NKU W |
| Mar 2, 2022-23 | OAK 74 @ NKU 81 | NKU -6.5 | NKU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Oakland
10 games played
Straight up
4-6
40% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-2
80% overs · avg +14.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ MICH | L 78-121 | +24.5 | L −18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 7 | @ PUR | L 77-87 | +31.5 | W +21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | @ HOU | L 45-78 | +30.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 17 | @ UCF | L 83-87 | +13.5 | W +9.5 | 163.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 21 | @ EMU | L 91-97 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 24 | vs LAM | W 83-68 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 25 | @ MONT | W 95-87 | +4.5 | W +12.5 | 162.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 3 | vs PFW | W 101-92 | -4.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 6 | vs TOL | W 98-97 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ UNI | L 63-75 | +8.5 | L −3.5 | 149.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@MICH
MICHL 78-121
−18.5
7
@PUR
PURL 77-87
+21.5
12
@HOU
HOUL 45-78
−2.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 83-87
+9.5
21
@EMU
EMUL 91-97
−7.5
24
vsLAM
LAMW 83-68
+11.5
25
@MONT
MONTW 95-87
+12.5
3
vsPFW
PFWW 101-92
+4.5
6
vsTOL
TOLW 98-97
−3.5
13
@UNI
UNIL 63-75
−3.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@MICH
MICHL 78-121
+42.5
7
@PUR
PURL 77-87
+5.5
12
@HOU
HOUL 45-78
−15.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 83-87
+6.5
21
@EMU
EMUL 91-97
+34.5
24
vsLAM
LAMW 83-68
+2.5
25
@MONT
MONTW 95-87
+19.5
3
vsPFW
PFWW 101-92
+30.5
6
vsTOL
TOLW 98-97
+28.5
13
@UNI
UNIL 63-75
−11.5
over 8under 2avg +14.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
N Kentucky
9 games played
Straight up
6-3
67% wins
Against the spread
5-4
56% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-3
67% overs · avg +7.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ TENN | L 56-95 | +27.5 | L −11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | @ ETSU | L 63-75 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 20 | @ CMU | W 90-66 | +4.5 | W +28.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs EKU | W 82-71 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 26 | vs WOF | W 93-83 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 149.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 29 | vs BU | W 74-65 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 3 | vs CLE | W 95-80 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 6 | @PFW | L 77-79 | +1.5 | L −0.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 13 | @ BELL | W 80-76 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@TENN
TENNL 56-95
−11.5
12
@ETSU
ETSUL 63-75
−5.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 90-66
+28.5
24
vsEKU
EKUW 82-71
+6.5
26
vsWOF
WOFW 93-83
+6.5
29
vsBU
BUW 74-65
+1.5
3
vsCLE
CLEW 95-80
+0.5
6
@PFW
PFWL 77-79
−0.5
13
@BELL
BELLW 80-76
−0.5
covered 5didn’t cover 4avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@TENN
TENNL 56-95
+13.5
12
@ETSU
ETSUL 63-75
−4.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 90-66
+9.5
24
vsEKU
EKUW 82-71
−3.5
26
vsWOF
WOFW 93-83
+26.5
29
vsBU
BUW 74-65
−4.5
3
vsCLE
CLEW 95-80
+16.5
6
@PFW
PFWL 77-79
+2.5
13
@BELL
BELLW 80-76
+9.5
over 6under 3avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Oakland
4-6 overall · 1-0 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Northern Iowa63–75
- Wvs Toledo98–97
- Wvs Purdue FW101–92
- W@ Montana95–87
- Wvs Lamar83–68
4 days since their last game.
N Kentucky
6-3 overall · 1-1 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Bellarmine80–76
- L@ Purdue FW77–79
- Wvs Cleveland St95–80
- Wvs Boston U74–65
- Wvs Wofford93–83
4 days since their last game.