Galen Center · at USC · Conference game
Closing line
USC -6.5✓ NU covered by 12.5
USC -6.5✓ NU covered by 12.5Closing total149.5Under by 7.5
 NU | This season | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 8-10 | Record | 13-4 |
| 7-11 | ATS | 9-8 |
| 10-8 | O/U | 9-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NU 77–81 USC · ✗ USC (64%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 31 | 43 | 74 |
| USC | 28 | 40 | 68 |
1st half: NU 31, USC 28 (NU by 3). The model had USC by 2.3 and a total of 73.8 (actual 59).
Team stats
| NU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-62 45% | Field goals | 20-52 38% |
| 3-15 20% | 3-pointers | 2-13 15% |
| 15-18 83% | Free throws | 26-43 60% |
| 33 8 off | Rebounds | 39 12 off |
| 22 | Assists | 13 |
| 3 | Steals | 3 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 25 | Fouls | 19 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| NU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinelli F | 35 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 8-20 | 1-3 |
| Jake West G | 34 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Max Green G | 31 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4-8 | 1-4 |
| Tyler Kropp F | 28 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Tre Singleton F | 14 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Clayton G | 17 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Jayden Reid G | 17 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Arrinten Page F | 14 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Angelo Ciaravino G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Justin Mullins G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cade Bennerman, Phoenix Gill, Gus Hurlburt, Blake Smith, K.J. Windham
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Cofie F | 35 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 33 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Alijah Arenas G | 29 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-15 | 0-6 |
| Kam Woods G | 24 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 13 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Marsh G | 22 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-2 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 20 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Terrance Williams II F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Patrick O'Brien, Brit Burden, Rodney Rice, Amarion Dickerson, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Ryan Cornish
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSC -6.5
no move
CloseUSC -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open152.5
▼ 3
Close149.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
NU +240 · USC -298
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USC -6.5 · unchangedmodel USC -4
model USC -4
Opened 152.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 3 downmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC -6.5 | USC -4.1 | NU +2.4 | W NU covered |
| Total | 149.5 | 157.6 | Over 8.1 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | NU 76.7 · USC 80.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | USC -2.3 | NU -3.0 |
| 1H total | 73.8 | 59 |
| 1H projected score | NU 35.7 · USC 38.1 | NU 31 · USC 28 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| USC | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
NU 1–0 USCNU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NU 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2024-25 | USC 75 @ NU 77 | NU -2.5 | USC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Northwestern
18 games played
Straight up
8-10
44% wins
Against the spread
7-11
39% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-8
56% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MERC | W 70-47 | -26.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 7 | vs BU | W 76-52 | -17.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 10 | vs CLE | W 110-63 | -23.5 | W +23.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | @ DEP | W 81-79 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs UVA | L 78-83 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs SC | W 79-77 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 27 | vs OKST | L 81-86 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | @ WIS | L 73-85 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs OSU | L 82-86 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs JKST | W 93-53 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 16 | vs VAL | W 86-70 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs BTLR | L 58-61 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 119 |
| Dec 30 | vs HOW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vs MINN | L 78-84 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 8 | @ MSU | L 66-76 | +13.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 11 | @ RUTG | L 75-77 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 14 | vs ILL | L 68-79 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs NEB | L 58-77 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−3.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
+6.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+23.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
−3.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
−0.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
−2.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
−7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
−1.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
−2.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
+9.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+1.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
+0.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
−10.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
+3.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
−6.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−1.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
covered 7didn’t cover 11avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−23.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
−8.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+21.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
+14.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
+11.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
+9.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
+7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
+2.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
+12.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
−0.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+10.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
−35.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
−8.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
+23.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
−1.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
+7.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−4.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
over 10under 8avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
USC
17 games played
Straight up
13-4
76% wins
Against the spread
9-8
53% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-8
53% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs WASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 9 | @ USD | W 94-81 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 14 | vs WSU | W 68-61 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTSA | W 97-70 | -25.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 2 | @ MICH | L 66-96 | +22.5 | L −7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 5 | @MSU | L 51-80 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 9 | @MINN | W 70-69 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 13 | vs MD | W 88-71 | -9.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 17 | vs PUR | L 64-69 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
−1.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−5.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+1.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−7.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−17.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
+4.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+7.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
+4.5
covered 9didn’t cover 8avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
+16.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−27.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+9.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−11.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−20.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
−8.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+8.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
−22.5
over 9under 8avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Northwestern
8-10 overall · 0-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Nebraska58–77
- Lvs Illinois68–79
- L@ Rutgers75–77
- L@ Michigan St66–76
- Lvs Minnesota78–84
4 days since their last game.
USC
13-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Purdue64–69
- Wvs Maryland88–71
- W@ Minnesota70–69
- L@ Michigan St51–80
- L@ Michigan66–96
4 days since their last game.