Carver-Hawkeye Arena · at Iowa · Conference game
Closing line
IOWA -9.5✓ USC covered by 8.5
IOWA -9.5✓ USC covered by 8.5Closing total141.5Over by 3.5
 USC | This season | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| 14-5 | Record | 14-5 |
| 10-9 | ATS | 13-6 |
| 9-10 | O/U | 10-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USC 72–80 IOWA · ✓ IOWA (75%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 28 | 44 | 72 |
| IOWA | 27 | 46 | 73 |
1st half: USC 28, IOWA 27 (USC by 1). The model had IOWA by 4.5 and a total of 71.0 (actual 55).
Team stats
| USC | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-53 53% | Field goals | 23-55 42% |
| 5-15 33% | 3-pointers | 8-25 32% |
| 11-16 69% | Free throws | 19-22 86% |
| 29 8 off | Rebounds | 32 12 off |
| 8 | Assists | 11 |
| 6 | Steals | 12 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam Woods G | 40 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 12-17 | 2-4 |
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 33 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 5-15 | 3-7 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 31 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Alijah Arenas G | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Jacob Cofie F | 26 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jerry Easter II G | 24 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Ryan Cornish G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Patrick O'Brien, Brit Burden, Amarion Dickerson, EJ Neal Jr., Terrance Williams II, Jonah Goorin, Rodney Rice, Jordan Marsh
| IOWA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Stirtz G | 40 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 6-12 | 2-4 |
| Kael Combs G | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Tavion Banks G | 28 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 5-11 | 2-4 |
| Cooper Koch F | 20 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Cam Manyawu F | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Alvaro Folgueiras F | 27 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 5-10 | 2-5 |
| Isaia Howard G | 25 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Tate Sage G | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Brendan Hausen G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Joey Matteoni, Trevin Jirak, Trey Thompson, Peyton McCollum, Jacob Koch
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenIOWA -9.5
no move
CloseIOWA -9.5
No change since the open
Total
Open141.5
no move
Close141.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
USC +380 · IOWA -500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened IOWA -9.5 · unchangedmodel IOWA -8
model IOWA -8
Opened 141.5 · unchangedmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | IOWA -9.5 | IOWA -7.8 | USC +1.7 | W USC covered |
| Total | 141.5 | 151.5 | Over 10.0 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | USC 71.9 · IOWA 79.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | IOWA -4.5 | USC -1.0 |
| 1H total | 71.0 | 55 |
| 1H projected score | USC 33.2 · IOWA 37.7 | USC 28 · IOWA 27 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| IOWA | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
USC 1–0 IOWAUSC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · USC 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | IOWA 89 @ USC 99 | USC -2.5 | USC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
USC
19 games played
Straight up
14-5
74% wins
Against the spread
10-9
53% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-10
47% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs WASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 9 | @ USD | W 94-81 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 14 | vs WSU | W 68-61 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTSA | W 97-70 | -25.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 2 | @ MICH | L 66-96 | +22.5 | L −7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 5 | @ MSU | L 51-80 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 9 | @ MINN | W 70-69 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 13 | vs MD | W 88-71 | -9.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 17 | vs PUR | L 64-69 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 21 | vs NU | L 68-74 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 25 | @ WIS | W 73-71 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 158.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
−1.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−5.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+1.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−7.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−17.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
+4.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+7.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
+4.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−12.5
25
@WIS
WISW 73-71
+9.5
covered 10didn’t cover 9avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
+16.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−27.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+9.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−11.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−20.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
−8.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+8.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
−22.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−7.5
25
@WIS
WISW 73-71
−14.5
over 9under 10avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Iowa
19 games played
Straight up
14-5
74% wins
Against the spread
13-6
68% covers · avg +3.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-9
53% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs RMU | W 101-69 | -22.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 7 | vs WIU | W 77-58 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 14 | vs XAV | W 81-62 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs SEMO | W 99-70 | -23.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 20 | vs CHST | W 93-54 | -31.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 25 | vs MISS | W 74-69 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs GCU | W 59-46 | -8.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 105 |
| Dec 2 | @MSU | L 52-71 | +5.5 | L −13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vsMD | W 83-64 | -10.5 | W +8.5 | 137.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 11 | @ ISU | L 62-66 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 14 | vs WMU | W 91-51 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 20 | vs BUCK | W 94-39 | -25.5 | W +29.5 | 133.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 29 | vs UML | W 90-62 | -33.5 | L −5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 3 | vs UCLA | W 74-61 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | @MINN | L 67-70 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 130.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 11 | vs ILL | L 69-75 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @PUR | L 72-79 | +10.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @ IU | W 74-57 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 20 | vs RUTG | W 68-62 | -17.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+9.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−11.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
+3.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+5.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+7.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+0.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
+4.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−13.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+8.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
+7.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+14.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
+29.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
−5.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
+6.5
6
@MINN
MINNL 67-70
−7.5
11
vsILL
ILLL 69-75
−4.5
14
@PUR
PURL 72-79
+3.5
17
@IU
IUW 74-57
+20.5
20
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-62
−11.5
covered 13didn’t cover 6avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+33.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−10.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
−0.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+21.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+4.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+2.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
−38.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−10.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+9.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
−13.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+4.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
−0.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
+6.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
−5.5
6
@MINN
MINNL 67-70
+6.5
11
vsILL
ILLL 69-75
+1.5
14
@PUR
PURL 72-79
+5.5
17
@IU
IUW 74-57
−15.5
20
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-62
−10.5
over 10under 9avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
USC
14-5 overall · 4-5 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Wisconsin73–71
- Lvs Northwestern68–74
- Lvs Purdue64–69
- Wvs Maryland88–71
- W@ Minnesota70–69
3 days since their last game.
Iowa
14-5 overall · 4-4 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Rutgers68–62
- W@ Indiana74–57
- L@ Purdue72–79
- Lvs Illinois69–75
- L@ Minnesota67–70
A week or more of rest.