Breslin Center · at Michigan St · Conference game
Closing line
MSU -1.5✓ MSU covered by 1.5
MSU -1.5✓ MSU covered by 1.5Closing total142.5Over by 24.5
 ILL | This season | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| 20-3 | Record | 19-4 |
| 15-8 | ATS | 11-12 |
| 8-15 | O/U | 8-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILL 73–73 MSU · ✗ ILL (51%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 39 | 32 | 11 | 82 |
| MSU | 35 | 36 | 14 | 85 |
1st half: ILL 39, MSU 35 (ILL by 4). The model had ILL by 0.2 and a total of 68.5 (actual 74).
Team stats
| ILL | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-71 37% | Field goals | 29-67 43% |
| 10-36 28% | 3-pointers | 7-24 29% |
| 20-24 83% | Free throws | 20-23 87% |
| 38 15 off | Rebounds | 48 15 off |
| 13 | Assists | 18 |
| 5 | Steals | 3 |
| 5 | Blocks | 4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 21 | Fouls | 19 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 22 |
Players
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 41 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 2-16 | 2-8 |
| David Mirkovic F | 36 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 5-13 | 1-5 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 35 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 8-14 | 1-2 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 29 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-6 |
| Jake Davis F | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Humrichous F | 29 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 26 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Did not play: Brandon Lee, Blake Fagbemi, Mihailo Petrovic, Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Ty Rodgers, Kylan Boswell
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 43 | 26 | 3 | 15 | 7-19 | 0-3 |
| Coen Carr F | 37 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4-10 | 0-2 |
| Carson Cooper C | 37 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 35 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 4-12 | 3-8 |
| Jordan Scott F | 28 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cam Ward F | 18 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Kur Teng G | 16 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4-10 | 2-6 |
| Trey Fort G | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Colin Walton, Brennan Walton, Nick Sanders, Divine Ugochukwu, Kaleb Glenn
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -1.5
no move
CloseMSU -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open143.5
▼ 1
Close142.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
ILL +110 · MSU -130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -1.5 · unchangedmodel ILL -0
model ILL -0
Opened 143.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 1 downmodel 146
model 146
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSU -1.5 | ILL -0.1 | ILL +1.6 | L MSU covered |
| Total | 142.5 | 146.2 | Over 3.7 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | ILL 73.2 · MSU 73 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ILL -0.2 | ILL -4.0 |
| 1H total | 68.5 | 74 |
| 1H projected score | ILL 34.3 · MSU 34.1 | ILL 39 · MSU 35 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 10-0 100% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
| MSU | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
ILL 4–3 MSUILL leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · MSU has won the last 3 meetings · ILL 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | MSU 79 @ ILL 65 | ILL -6.5 | MSU W |
| Jan 19, 2024-25 | ILL 78 @ MSU 80 | MSU -1.5 | MSU W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | ILL 80 @ MSU 88 | MSU -4.5 | MSU W |
| Jan 11, 2023-24 | MSU 68 @ ILL 71 | ILL -3.5 | MSU W |
| Jan 13, 2022-23 | MSU 66 @ ILL 75 | ILL -6.5 | ILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois
23 games played
Straight up
20-3
87% wins
Against the spread
15-8
65% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-15
35% overs · avg −4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vs RUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @ NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vs MD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @ PUR | W 88-82 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 29 | vs WASH | W 75-66 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | @NEB | W 78-69 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 4 | vsNU | W 84-44 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+11.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−3.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
+10.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
+23.5
covered 15didn’t cover 8avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+17.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−12.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
−7.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
−21.5
over 8under 15avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan St
23 games played
Straight up
19-4
83% wins
Against the spread
11-12
48% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-15
35% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsCOLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vsIOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vs USC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vsNU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 13 | vs IU | W 81-60 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | @WASH | W 80-63 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | @ ORE | W 68-52 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 24 | vsMD | W 91-48 | -18.5 | W +24.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 27 | @RUTG | W 88-79 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 30 | vs MICH | L 71-83 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 4 | @MINN | L 73-76 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
+14.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
+13.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
+5.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
+24.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
−5.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
−9.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
−11.5
covered 11didn’t cover 12avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
−4.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
−2.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
−19.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
−2.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
+28.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
+4.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
+12.5
over 8under 15avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois
20-3 overall · 11-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Northwestern84–44
- W@ Nebraska78–69
- Wvs Washington75–66
- W@ Purdue88–82
- Wvs Maryland89–70
3 days since their last game.
Michigan St
19-4 overall · 9-3 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Minnesota73–76
- Lvs Michigan71–83
- W@ Rutgers88–79
- Wvs Maryland91–48
- W@ Oregon68–52
3 days since their last game.