NCAAB

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Day in numbers10 finalFavorites 7-3 ATS2 upsetsO/U 4-6Model Favorite 8-2Open
Games1010 final · 0 to play
Lines moved71+ pt since the open · 10 with a line
Totals moved91+ pt since the open
Favorites ATS7-370% covered
Upsets2outright
Over / Under4-640% over
Model Favorite8-280% won
GameSpread, open → closeMovedTotalMoved
VCU vs ILLILL -9.5 → ILL -12.53 → ILL154.5 → 151.5▼ 3
TEX vs GONZGONZ -4.5 → GONZ -5.51 → GONZ149.5 → 146.5▼ 3
SLU vs MICHMICH -13.5 → MICH -12.51 → SLU161.5 → 161.5no move
LOU vs MSUMSU -4.5 → MSU -5.51 → MSU150.5 → 151.5▲ 1
TA&M vs HOUHOU -9.5 → HOU -10.51 → HOU144.5 → 142.5▼ 2
DAY @ UNCWDAY -2.5 → DAY -3.51 → DAY139.5 → 138.5▼ 1
VAN vs NEBVAN -2.5 → VAN -1.51 → NEB147.5 → 146.5▼ 1
TCU vs DUKEDUKE -12.5 → DUKE -12.5no move138.5 → 140.5▲ 2
LIB @ NEVNEV -7.5 → NEV -7.5no move147.5 → 146.5▼ 1
HPU vs ARKARK -12.5 → ARK -12.5no move170.5 → 171.5▲ 1
Biggest moves since the open, in points. A move says where the market went, not where it should have.
Line movedCoveredCover rate
1+ pts5579-5698-549%
2+ pts2172-2236-249%
3+ pts880-90849%
5+ pts139-14948%
Did the side the line moved toward cover the closing number? Since 2023-24, when ESPN's opening lines begin. A break-even bet at standard prices needs 52.4%.
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FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Saint Louis
27-5 · #69 AP #9
72
Michigan
31-3 · #8 AP #1
95
Spread
MICH -12.5
✓ MICH W ATS
Total
161.5
▲ Over 167
Projected
75–89
✓ MICH won
Model: MICH by 1.8 ✓ Model: Over 2.0 ✓
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Louisville
23-10 · #14 AP #6
69
Michigan St
25-7 · #10 AP #3
77
Spread
MSU -5.5
✓ MSU W ATS
Total
151.5 ▲1
▼ Under 146
Projected
75–77
✓ MSU won
Model: LOU by 4.0 ✗ Model: Over 0.8 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
TCU
22-11 · #40 AP #9
58
Duke
32-2 · #3 AP #1
81
Spread
DUKE -12.5
✓ DUKE W ATS
Total
140.5 ▲2
▼ Under 139
Projected
65–78
✓ DUKE won
Model: TCU by 0.2 ✗ Model: Over 2.5 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Texas A&M
21-11 · #28 AP #10
57
Houston
28-6 · #2 AP #2
88
Spread
HOU -10.5
✓ HOU W ATS
Total
142.5 ▼2
▲ Over 145
Projected
70–79
✓ HOU won
Model: TA&M by 1.3 ✗ Model: Over 5.9 ✓
Game card ›
FinalNIT
Dayton
23-11 · #91
80
UNC Wilmington
24-6 · #120
61
Spread
DAY -3.5
✓ DAY W ATS
Total
138.5 ▼1
▲ Over 141
Projected
71–67
✓ DAY won
Model: DAY by 0.2 ✓ Model: Under 0.1 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Texas
17-14 · #11 AP #11
74
Gonzaga
30-3 · #17 AP #3
68
Spread
GONZ -5.5
✓ TEX W ATS
Total
146.5 ▼3
▼ Under 142
Projected
75–80
✗ GONZ lost
Model: TEX by 0.7 ✓ Model: Over 8.8 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
VCU
27-7 · #61 AP #11
55
Illinois
24-8 · #4 AP #3
76
Spread
ILL -12.5
✓ ILL W ATS
Total
151.5 ▼3
▼ Under 131
Projected
74–85
✓ ILL won
Model: VCU by 0.8 ✗ Model: Over 7.2 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNIT
Liberty
22-7 · #160
63
Nevada
22-12 · #96
73
Spread
NEV -7.5
✓ NEV W ATS
Total
146.5 ▼1
▼ Under 136
Projected
69–76
✓ NEV won
Model: Under 1.4 ✓
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Vanderbilt
26-8 · #22 AP #5
72
Nebraska
26-6 · #27 AP #4
74
Spread
VAN -1.5
✓ NEB W ATS
Total
146.5 ▼1
▼ Under 146
Projected
77–75
✗ VAN lost
Model: VAN by 0.6 ✗ Model: Over 4.7 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
High Point
27-4 · #90 AP #12
88
Arkansas
26-8 · #18 AP #4
94
Spread
ARK -12.5
✓ HPU W ATS
Total
171.5 ▲1
▲ Over 182
Projected
81–92
✓ ARK won
Model: HPU by 0.6 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✓
Game card ›
StatusMatchupSpreadTotalModel lineSpread edgeModel totalTotal edgeWin probModel
Final
Saint Louis
27-5 · #69
72
Michigan
31-3 · #8
95
 MICH -12.5 161.5 MICH -14.3 MICH +1.8 163.5 Over 2.0 89% MICH W W ›
Final
Louisville
23-10 · #14
69
Michigan St
25-7 · #10
77
 MSU -5.5 151.5 MSU -1.4 LOU +4.0 152.3 Over 0.8 55% MSU L L ›
Final
TCU
22-11 · #40
58
Duke
32-2 · #3
81
 DUKE -12.5 140.5 DUKE -12.3 TCU +0.2 143.0 Over 2.5 86% DUKE L L ›
Final
Texas A&M
21-11 · #28
57
Houston
28-6 · #2
88
 HOU -10.5 142.5 HOU -9.2 TA&M +1.3 148.4 Over 5.9 79% HOU L W ›
Final
Dayton
23-11 · #91
80
UNC Wilmington
24-6 · #120
61
 DAY -3.5 138.5 DAY -3.7 DAY +0.2 138.4 Under 0.1 63% DAY W L ›
Final
Texas
17-14 · #11
74
Gonzaga
30-3 · #17
68
 GONZ -5.5 146.5 GONZ -4.8 TEX +0.7 155.3 Over 8.8 66% GONZ W L ›
Final
VCU
27-7 · #61
55
Illinois
24-8 · #4
76
 ILL -12.5 151.5 ILL -11.7 VCU +0.8 158.7 Over 7.2 85% ILL L L ›
Final
Liberty
22-7 · #160
63
Nevada
22-12 · #96
73
 NEV -7.5 146.5 NEV -7.5 — 145.1 Under 1.4 75% NEV W ›
Final
Vanderbilt
26-8 · #22
72
Nebraska
26-6 · #27
74
 VAN -1.5 146.5 VAN -2.1 VAN +0.6 151.2 Over 4.7 57% VAN L L ›
Final
High Point
27-4 · #90
88
Arkansas
26-8 · #18
94
 ARK -12.5 171.5 ARK -11.9 HPU +0.6 173.0 Over 1.5 85% ARK W W ›
The # beside a record is the team’s power rank today, from the Rankings; AP is the poll. Spread is the market line (the favorite shows the minus). Model line and Model edge are from the model, never the market. Lines are pre-tip-off: after tip-off a tile shows the closing line. Model record