KeyBank Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
MSU -5.5✓ MSU covered by 2.5
MSU -5.5✓ MSU covered by 2.5Closing total151.5Under by 5.5
 LOU | This season | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| 24-10 | Record | 26-7 |
| 16-18 | ATS | 17-16 |
| 14-20 | O/U | 16-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 75–77 MSU · ✓ MSU (55%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 31 | 38 | 69 |
| MSU | 36 | 41 | 77 |
1st half: LOU 31, MSU 36 (MSU by 5). The model had MSU by 0.7 and a total of 71.2 (actual 67).
Team stats
| LOU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-63 41% | Field goals | 26-55 47% |
| 13-37 35% | 3-pointers | 11-26 42% |
| 4-6 67% | Free throws | 14-19 74% |
| 32 11 off | Rebounds | 39 11 off |
| 16 | Assists | 22 |
| 5 | Steals | 4 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac McKneely G | 35 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-9 | 3-7 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 34 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 7-15 | 5-11 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 30 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1-8 | 0-4 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 26 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 7-10 | 3-6 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kobe Rodgers G | 24 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Sananda Fru F | 18 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 14 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-6 |
| Khani Rooths F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, London Johnson, Mikel Brown Jr., Mouhamed Camara, Will Hanke
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 37 | 12 | 3 | 16 | 3-13 | 1-4 |
| Coen Carr F | 33 | 21 | 10 | 0 | 8-13 | 2-4 |
| Carson Cooper C | 30 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 28 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-7 |
| Jordan Scott F | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey Fort G | 19 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Cam Ward F | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Kur Teng G | 13 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nick Sanders, Jesse McCulloch, Brennan Walton, Colin Walton, Divine Ugochukwu, Kaleb Glenn
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -4.5
1 → MSU
CloseMSU -5.5
1 pt toward MSU
Total
Open150.5
▲ 1
Close151.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
LOU +215 · MSU -265
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -4.5 · closed MSU -5.5 · moved 1 toward MSUmodel MSU -1.5
model MSU -1.5
Opened 150.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 1 upmodel 152.5
model 152.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSU -5.5 | MSU -1.4 | LOU +4.0 | L MSU covered |
| Total | 151.5 | 152.3 | Over 0.8 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | LOU 75.4 · MSU 76.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSU -0.7 | MSU -5.0 |
| 1H total | 71.2 | 67 |
| 1H projected score | LOU 35.2 · MSU 36 | LOU 31 · MSU 36 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| MSU | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LOU 0–1 MSUMSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LOU 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2021-22 | LOU 64 @ MSU 73 | MSU -4 | MSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
34 games played
Straight up
24-10
71% wins
Against the spread
16-18
47% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-20
41% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs UVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs VT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 26 | @DUKE | L 52-83 | +8.5 | L −22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vs SMU | W 88-74 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs ND | W 76-65 | -19.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | @ WAKE | W 88-80 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 9 | vs NCSU | W 118-77 | -6.5 | W +34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vs BAY | W 82-71 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | @SMU | L 85-95 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 21 | vs GT | W 87-70 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 167.5 | U 157 |
| Feb 23 | @ UNC | L 74-77 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @ CLEM | L 75-80 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Mar 3 | vs SYR | W 77-62 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 7 | @ MIA | W 92-89 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 11 | vsSMU | W 62-58 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 120 |
| Mar 12 | vsMIA | L 73-78 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 153.5 | U 151 |
| Mar 19 | vs USF | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 160.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
+4.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−8.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
−1.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+34.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
+3.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
−14.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−6.5
23
@UNC
UNCL 74-77
−6.5
28
@CLEM
CLEML 75-80
−7.5
3
vsSYR
SYRW 77-62
+0.5
7
@MIA
MIAW 92-89
+4.5
11
vsSMU
SMUW 62-58
−3.5
12
vsMIA
MIAL 73-78
−6.5
19
vsUSF
USFW 83-79
+0.5
covered 16didn’t cover 18avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
−1.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−14.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
+5.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+33.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
−9.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
+11.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−10.5
23
@UNC
UNCL 74-77
−11.5
28
@CLEM
CLEML 75-80
+8.5
3
vsSYR
SYRW 77-62
−20.5
7
@MIA
MIAW 92-89
+25.5
11
vsSMU
SMUW 62-58
−44.5
12
vsMIA
MIAL 73-78
−2.5
19
vsUSF
USFW 83-79
+1.5
over 14under 20avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan St
33 games played
Straight up
26-7
79% wins
Against the spread
17-16
52% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-17
48% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vsARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vsUK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vsUNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vsDUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @ NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vs USC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vs NU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 13 | vsIU | W 81-60 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | @ WASH | W 80-63 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | @ ORE | W 68-52 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 24 | vs MD | W 91-48 | -18.5 | W +24.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 27 | @ RUTG | W 88-79 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 30 | vs MICH | L 71-83 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 4 | @ MINN | L 73-76 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 7 | vs ILL | W 85-82 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 13 | @ WIS | L 71-92 | -1.5 | L −22.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 17 | vs UCLA | W 82-59 | -8.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 22 | vs OSU | W 66-60 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Feb 26 | @ PUR | W 76-74 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 1 | @IU | W 77-64 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 5 | vsRUTG | W 91-87 | -20.5 | L −16.5 | 141.5 | O 178 |
| Mar 8 | @MICH | L 80-90 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Mar 13 | vsUCLA | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Mar 19 | vs NDSU | W 92-67 | -16.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
+14.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
+13.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
+5.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
+24.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
−5.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
−9.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
−11.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+1.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
−22.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+14.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−4.5
26
@PUR
PURW 76-74
+7.5
1
@IU
IUW 77-64
+10.5
5
vsRUTG
RUTGW 91-87
−16.5
8
@MICH
MICHL 80-90
+0.5
13
vsUCLA
UCLAL 84-88
−9.5
19
vsNDSU
NDSUW 92-67
+8.5
covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
−4.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
−2.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
−19.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
−2.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
+28.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
+4.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
+12.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+24.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
+13.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+1.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−20.5
26
@PUR
PURW 76-74
+6.5
1
@IU
IUW 77-64
−3.5
5
vsRUTG
RUTGW 91-87
+36.5
8
@MICH
MICHL 80-90
+17.5
13
vsUCLA
UCLAL 84-88
+30.5
19
vsNDSU
NDSUW 92-67
+14.5
over 16under 17avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
24-10 overall · 12-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs South Florida83–79
- Lvs Miami73–78
- Wvs SMU62–58
- W@ Miami92–89
- Wvs Syracuse77–62
2 days since their last game.
Michigan St
26-7 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs N Dakota St92–67
- Lvs UCLA84–88
- L@ Michigan80–90
- Wvs Rutgers91–87
- W@ Indiana77–64
2 days since their last game.