Maples Pavilion · at Stanford · Conference game
Closing line
LOU -7.5✓ STAN covered by 11.5
LOU -7.5✓ STAN covered by 11.5Closing total157.5Under by 1.5
| LOU | This season | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2 | Record | 11-3 |
| 9-4 | ATS | 7-7 |
| 7-6 | O/U | 6-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 84–72 STAN · ✗ LOU (85%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 34 | 42 | 76 |
| STAN | 35 | 45 | 80 |
1st half: LOU 34, STAN 35 (STAN by 1). The model had LOU by 7.3 and a total of 73.5 (actual 69).
Team stats
| LOU | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-60 43% | Field goals | 25-54 46% |
| 6-27 22% | 3-pointers | 9-19 47% |
| 18-21 86% | Free throws | 21-31 68% |
| 39 18 off | Rebounds | 31 14 off |
| 11 | Assists | 6 |
| 4 | Steals | 7 |
| 6 | Blocks | 4 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 23 | Fouls | 19 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac McKneely G | 37 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 5-11 | 3-8 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 35 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 6-21 | 2-14 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 32 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Sananda Fru F | 27 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6-6 | 0-0 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Khani Rooths F | 27 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 13 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kasean Pryor, London Johnson, Vangelis Zougris, Will Hanke, Mouhamed Camara, Mikel Brown Jr., Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg
| STAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebuka Okorie G | 38 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 9-18 | 2-5 |
| Chisom Okpara F | 30 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 5-11 | 2-3 |
| Ryan Agarwal G | 29 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-7 | 4-4 |
| Oskar Giltay C | 26 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Benny Gealer G | 24 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jeremy Dent-Smith G | 19 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Aidan Cammann F | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| AJ Rohosy F | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Donavin Young F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kristers Skrinda, Myles Jones, Ethan Kitch, Anthony Batson Jr., Cameron Grant, Evan Stinson, Tallis Toure, Jaylen Thompson
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -8.5
1 → STAN
CloseLOU -7.5
1 pt toward STAN
Total
Open157.5
no move
Close157.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
LOU -360 · STAN +285
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -8.5 · closed LOU -7.5 · moved 1 toward STANmodel LOU -12
model LOU -12
Opened 157.5 · unchangedmodel 157
model 157
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LOU -7.5 | LOU -12.0 | LOU +4.5 | L STAN covered |
| Total | 157.5 | 156.9 | Under 0.6 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | LOU 84.4 · STAN 72.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LOU -7.3 | STAN -1.0 |
| 1H total | 73.5 | 69 |
| 1H projected score | LOU 40.4 · STAN 33.1 | LOU 34 · STAN 35 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| STAN | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LOU 2–0 STANLOU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · LOU has won the last 2 meetings · LOU 1-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | STAN 73 vs LOU 75 | LOU -10.5 | STAN W |
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | STAN 48 @ LOU 68 | LOU -10.5 | LOU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
13 games played
Straight up
11-2
85% wins
Against the spread
9-4
69% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg −4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
covered 9didn’t cover 4avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
over 7under 6avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Stanford
14 games played
Straight up
11-3
79% wins
Against the spread
7-7
50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-8
43% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs PRST | W 89-79 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vsMONT | W 91-68 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 12 | vs MTST | W 77-68 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 18 | vs UL | W 93-66 | -20.5 | W +6.5 | 139.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 21 | vs SEA | L 69-77 | -10.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 27 | vs MINN | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs SLU | W 78-77 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs PORT | W 94-72 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 7 | vs UNLV | L 74-75 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | @ SJSU | W 86-82 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTA | W 76-60 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 20 | vs COLO | W 77-68 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 27 | vs CSUN | W 88-80 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 30 | vs ND | L 40-47 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
−1.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+10.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−5.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+6.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−18.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
+1.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
+2.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+2.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−10.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
−4.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
+5.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
+11.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
−7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−13.5
covered 7didn’t cover 7avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
+23.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+8.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−3.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+19.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−6.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
−2.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
−5.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+9.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−15.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
+22.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
−3.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
−9.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
+7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−56.5
over 6under 8avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
11-2 overall · 1-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ California90–70
- Wvs Montana94–54
- L@ Tennessee62–83
- Wvs Memphis99–73
- Wvs Indiana87–78
3 days since their last game.
Stanford
11-3 overall · 0-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Notre Dame40–47
- Wvs CSU Northridge88–80
- Wvs Colorado77–68
- Wvs UT Arlington76–60
- W@ San José St86–82
3 days since their last game.