Food City Center · at Tennessee
Closing line
TENN -4.5✓ TENN covered by 16.5
TENN -4.5✓ TENN covered by 16.5Closing total156.5Under by 11.5
 LOU | This season | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| 9-1 | Record | 7-3 |
| 7-3 | ATS | 3-7 |
| 6-4 | O/U | 6-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 78–78 TENN · ✗ LOU (51%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 27 | 35 | 62 |
| TENN | 34 | 49 | 83 |
1st half: LOU 27, TENN 34 (TENN by 7). The model had LOU by 0.3 and a total of 73.2 (actual 61).
Team stats
| LOU | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-58 38% | Field goals | 29-53 55% |
| 7-34 21% | 3-pointers | 7-18 39% |
| 11-18 61% | Free throws | 18-28 64% |
| 30 12 off | Rebounds | 35 10 off |
| 8 | Assists | 19 |
| 5 | Steals | 8 |
| 1 | Blocks | 5 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac McKneely G | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-10 | 1-7 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 34 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 6-13 | 2-8 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 33 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 7-19 | 4-13 |
| Sananda Fru F | 28 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 27 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Khani Rooths F | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Will Hanke, Mouhamed Camara, Cole Sherman, Mikel Brown Jr., Spencer Legg
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 34 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 5-12 | 3-7 |
| Felix Okpara F | 31 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Nate Ament F | 26 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 5-11 | 2-4 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 23 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| DeWayne Brown II F | 16 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Carey F | 24 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Amaree Abram G | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Ethan Burg G | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Amari Evans G | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Troy Henderson G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Clarence Massamba, Campbell Duncan, Gavin Paull, Cade Phillips, Grant Hurst
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -1.5
6 → TENN
CloseTENN -4.5
6 pts toward TENN
Total
Open157.5
▼ 1
Close156.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
LOU +160 · TENN -192
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -1.5 · closed TENN -4.5 · moved 6 toward TENNmodel LOU -0.5
model LOU -0.5
Opened 157.5 · closed 156.5 · moved 1 downmodel 156.5 matches the line
model 156.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TENN -4.5 | LOU -0.3 | LOU +4.8 | L TENN covered |
| Total | 156.5 | 156.4 | Under 0.1 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | LOU 78.3 · TENN 78.1 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LOU -0.3 | TENN -7.0 |
| 1H total | 73.2 | 61 |
| 1H projected score | LOU 36.8 · TENN 36.4 | LOU 27 · TENN 34 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| TENN | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LOU 0–1 TENNTENN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LOU 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024-25 | TENN 77 @ LOU 55 | LOU -2.5 | TENN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
10 games played
Straight up
9-1
90% wins
Against the spread
7-3
70% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-4
60% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
covered 7didn’t cover 3avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
over 6under 4avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Tennessee
10 games played
Straight up
7-3
70% wins
Against the spread
3-7
30% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-4
60% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MER | W 76-61 | -28.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs NKU | W 95-56 | -27.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNF | W 99-66 | -41.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 17 | vs RICE | W 91-66 | -26.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 20 | vs TNST | W 89-60 | -31.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs RUTG | W 85-60 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs HOU | W 76-73 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs KU | L 76-81 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | @ SYR | L 60-62 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs ILL | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+5.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
−12.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−9.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−14.5
covered 3didn’t cover 7avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+12.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
+16.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−25.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−12.5
over 6under 4avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
9-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Memphis99–73
- Wvs Indiana87–78
- L@ Arkansas80–89
- Wvs NJIT104–47
- Wvs E Michigan87–46
3 days since their last game.
Tennessee
7-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Illinois62–75
- L@ Syracuse60–62
- Lvs Kansas76–81
- Wvs Houston76–73
- Wvs Rutgers85–60
A week or more of rest.