Kohl Center · at Wisconsin · Conference game
Closing line
MSU -1.5✓ WIS covered by 22.5
MSU -1.5✓ WIS covered by 22.5Closing total149.5Over by 13.5
| MSU | This season | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| 20-4 | Record | 17-7 |
| 12-12 | ATS | 14-10 |
| 9-15 | O/U | 14-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSU 77–75 WIS · ✗ MSU (59%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 34 | 37 | 71 |
| WIS | 51 | 41 | 92 |
1st half: MSU 34, WIS 51 (WIS by 17). The model had MSU by 1.6 and a total of 71.1 (actual 85).
Team stats
| MSU | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-66 36% | Field goals | 30-62 48% |
| 8-27 30% | 3-pointers | 15-35 43% |
| 15-16 94% | Free throws | 17-23 74% |
| 38 14 off | Rebounds | 38 11 off |
| 13 | Assists | 14 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 14 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 24 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 32 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 3-12 | 1-4 |
| Coen Carr F | 31 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 6-10 | 1-2 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 30 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Jordan Scott F | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4-13 | 3-8 |
| Carson Cooper C | 19 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cam Ward F | 19 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Kur Teng G | 19 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 4-11 | 2-6 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
Did not play: Brennan Walton, Colin Walton, Nick Sanders, Divine Ugochukwu, Kaleb Glenn
| WIS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Boyd G | 32 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 10-17 | 5-7 |
| Nolan Winter F | 32 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-2 |
| Andrew Rohde G | 29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| John Blackwell G | 27 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 6-14 | 4-9 |
| Aleksas Bieliauskas F | 18 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Austin Rapp F | 23 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Braeden Carrington G | 19 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Jack Janicki G | 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Will Garlock F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Zach Kinziger G | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Hayden Jones G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Riccardo Greppi F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Gard G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jack Robison G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Elijah Gray
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -1.5
no move
CloseMSU -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open145.5
▲ 4
Close149.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
MSU -135 · WIS +114
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -1.5 · unchangedmodel MSU -2.5
model MSU -2.5
Opened 145.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 4 upmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSU -1.5 | MSU -2.5 | MSU +1.0 | L WIS covered |
| Total | 149.5 | 152.0 | Over 2.5 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | MSU 77.3 · WIS 74.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSU -1.6 | WIS -17.0 |
| 1H total | 71.1 | 85 |
| 1H projected score | MSU 36.4 · WIS 34.7 | MSU 34 · WIS 51 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| WIS | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
MSU 4–4 WISSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · MSU 4-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2024-25 | WIS 77 vs MSU 74 | MSU -1.5 | WIS W |
| Mar 2, 2024-25 | WIS 62 @ MSU 71 | MSU -4.5 | MSU W |
| Jan 26, 2023-24 | MSU 66 @ WIS 81 | WIS -2.5 | WIS W |
| Dec 5, 2023-24 | WIS 70 @ MSU 57 | MSU -5.5 | WIS W |
| Jan 10, 2022-23 | MSU 69 @ WIS 65 | WIS +1.5 | MSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan St
24 games played
Straight up
20-4
83% wins
Against the spread
12-12
50% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-15
38% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @ NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vs USC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vs NU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 13 | vs IU | W 81-60 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | @ WASH | W 80-63 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | @ ORE | W 68-52 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 24 | vs MD | W 91-48 | -18.5 | W +24.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 27 | @ RUTG | W 88-79 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 30 | vs MICH | L 71-83 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 4 | @ MINN | L 73-76 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 7 | vs ILL | W 85-82 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
+14.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
+13.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
+5.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
+24.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
−5.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
−9.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
−11.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+1.5
covered 12didn’t cover 12avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
−4.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
−2.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
−19.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
−2.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
+28.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
+4.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
+12.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+24.5
over 9under 15avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Wisconsin
24 games played
Straight up
17-7
71% wins
Against the spread
14-10
58% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-10
58% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAM | W 96-64 | -20.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 7 | vs NIU | W 97-72 | -28.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 11 | vs BALL | W 86-55 | -26.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 17 | vs SIUE | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 21 | @ BYU | L 70-98 | +4.5 | L −23.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 27 | vs PROV | W 104-83 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs TCU | L 63-74 | -5.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vsNU | W 85-73 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs MARQ | W 96-76 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | @NEB | L 60-90 | +1.5 | L −28.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 19 | vs VILL | L 66-76 | -3.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 22 | vs CMU | W 88-61 | -26.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 30 | vs MILW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 157.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vs PUR | L 73-89 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 6 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 10 | @MICH | W 91-88 | +19.5 | W +22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 13 | @MINN | W 78-75 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 17 | vsRUTG | W 96-87 | -15.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 22 | @PSU | W 98-71 | -5.5 | W +21.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 25 | vsUSC | L 71-73 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 158.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | vsMINN | W 67-63 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 31 | vs OSU | W 92-82 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 7 | @IU | L 77-78 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 10 | @ILL | W 92-90 | +9.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+11.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
−3.5
11
vsBALL
BALLW 86-55
+4.5
17
vsSIUE
SIUEW 94-69
−0.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 70-98
−23.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 104-83
+14.5
28
vsTCU
TCUL 63-74
−16.5
3
vsNU
NUW 85-73
+1.5
6
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-76
+8.5
10
@NEB
NEBL 60-90
−28.5
19
vsVILL
VILLL 66-76
−13.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 88-61
+0.5
30
vsMILW
MILWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsPUR
PURL 73-89
−10.5
6
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+4.5
10
@MICH
MICHW 91-88
+22.5
13
@MINN
MINNW 78-75
+1.5
17
vsRUTG
RUTGW 96-87
−6.5
22
@PSU
PSUW 98-71
+21.5
25
vsUSC
USCL 71-73
−9.5
28
vsMINN
MINNW 67-63
−5.5
31
vsOSU
OSUW 92-82
+5.5
7
@IU
IUL 77-78
+2.5
10
@ILL
ILLW 92-90
+11.5
covered 14didn’t cover 10avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+8.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
+11.5
11
vsBALL
BALLW 86-55
−15.5
17
vsSIUE
SIUEW 94-69
+16.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 70-98
+2.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 104-83
+20.5
28
vsTCU
TCUL 63-74
−20.5
3
vsNU
NUW 85-73
+2.5
6
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-76
+11.5
10
@NEB
NEBL 60-90
−8.5
19
vsVILL
VILLL 66-76
−10.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 88-61
−3.5
30
vsMILW
MILWW 80-60
−17.5
3
vsPUR
PURL 73-89
+8.5
6
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
−0.5
10
@MICH
MICHW 91-88
+9.5
13
@MINN
MINNW 78-75
+6.5
17
vsRUTG
RUTGW 96-87
+33.5
22
@PSU
PSUW 98-71
+11.5
25
vsUSC
USCL 71-73
−14.5
28
vsMINN
MINNW 67-63
−16.5
31
vsOSU
OSUW 92-82
+18.5
7
@IU
IUL 77-78
−2.5
10
@ILL
ILLW 92-90
+28.5
over 14under 10avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan St
20-4 overall · 10-3 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Illinois85–82
- L@ Minnesota73–76
- Lvs Michigan71–83
- W@ Rutgers88–79
- Wvs Maryland91–48
6 days since their last game.
Wisconsin
17-7 overall · 9-4 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Illinois92–90
- L@ Indiana77–78
- Wvs Ohio State92–82
- Wvs Minnesota67–63
- Lvs USC71–73
3 days since their last game.