Bon Secours Wellness Arena · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
DUKE -12.5✓ DUKE covered by 10.5
DUKE -12.5✓ DUKE covered by 10.5Closing total140.5Under by 1.5
 TCU | This season | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| 23-11 | Record | 33-2 |
| 19-15 | ATS | 20-15 |
| 15-19 | O/U | 12-23 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TCU 65–78 DUKE · ✓ DUKE (86%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 34 | 24 | 58 |
| DUKE | 38 | 43 | 81 |
1st half: TCU 34, DUKE 38 (DUKE by 4). The model had DUKE by 7.2 and a total of 66.9 (actual 72).
Team stats
| TCU | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-69 33% | Field goals | 27-49 55% |
| 7-24 29% | 3-pointers | 7-21 33% |
| 5-10 50% | Free throws | 20-23 87% |
| 25 11 off | Rebounds | 42 9 off |
| 12 | Assists | 17 |
| 12 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| TCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Robinson G | 37 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 7-18 | 3-9 |
| Brock Harding G | 36 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 3-8 | 2-3 |
| Jayden Pierre G | 33 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2-10 | 0-4 |
| David Punch F | 30 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-10 | 0-2 |
| Xavier Edmonds F | 20 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Liutauras Lelevicius F | 15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Tanner Toolson G | 15 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Vianney Salatchoum C | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Ashton Simmons G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kayden Edwards G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jace Posey G | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| RJ Jones G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Drew McElroy, Adam Stewart, Trey Stuart, Malick Diallo
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cayden Boozer G | 36 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Cameron Boozer F | 33 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 7-10 | 0-1 |
| Dame Sarr F | 29 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 29 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 6-14 | 2-8 |
| Maliq Brown F | 26 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nik Khamenia F | 26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Patrick Ngongba II C | 13 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Darren Harris G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cameron Sheffield G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jack Scott G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Brock Davis, Sebastian Wilkins, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Caleb Foster
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDUKE -12.5
no move
CloseDUKE -12.5
No change since the open
Total
Open138.5
▲ 2
Close140.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
TCU +575 · DUKE -850
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DUKE -12.5 · unchangedmodel DUKE -12.5 matches the line
model DUKE -12.5 = line ✓
Opened 138.5 · closed 140.5 · moved 2 upmodel 143
model 143
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | DUKE -12.5 | DUKE -12.3 | TCU +0.2 | L DUKE covered |
| Total | 140.5 | 143.0 | Over 2.5 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | TCU 65.4 · DUKE 77.6 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | DUKE -7.2 | DUKE -4.0 |
| 1H total | 66.9 | 72 |
| 1H projected score | TCU 29.9 · DUKE 37 | TCU 34 · DUKE 38 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
| DUKE | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
TCU
34 games played
Straight up
23-11
68% wins
Against the spread
19-15
56% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-19
44% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NOLA | L 74-78 | -21.5 | L −25.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 6 | vs SFPA | W 104-63 | -27.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 10 | vs LAM | W 78-65 | -18.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 14 | vs MICH | L 63-67 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs KC | W 81-45 | -23.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 27 | vs FLA | W 84-80 | +11.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs WIS | W 74-63 | +5.5 | W +16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 5 | vs ND | L 85-87 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 7 | @ UNT | W 65-55 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 15 | vs UIW | W 69-65 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 18 | vs ORU | W 72-53 | -23.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 21 | vs FAMU | W 80-56 | -29.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 29 | vs JKST | W 115-64 | -30.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs BAY | W 69-63 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 6 | @ KU | L 100-104 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 10 | vs ARIZ | L 73-86 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 14 | @ BYU | L 70-76 | +13.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 17 | @ UTAH | L 79-82 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 20 | vs OKST | W 68-65 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 24 | @BAY | W 97-90 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 28 | vs HOU | L 70-79 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 139.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 1 | @ COLO | L 61-87 | -1.5 | L −27.5 | 153.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 7 | vs KSU | W 84-82 | -9.5 | L −7.5 | 155.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 10 | vs ISU | W 62-55 | +7.5 | W +14.5 | 147.5 | U 117 |
| Feb 14 | @OKST | W 95-92 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 156.5 | O 187 |
| Feb 17 | @ UCF | L 71-82 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 21 | vs WVU | W 60-54 | -4.5 | W +1.5 | 133.5 | U 114 |
| Feb 24 | vs ASU | W 90-78 | -6.5 | W +5.5 | 149.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 28 | @KSU | W 77-68 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 159.5 | U 145 |
| Mar 3 | @ TTU | W 73-65 | +8.5 | W +16.5 | 147.5 | U 138 |
| Mar 7 | vs CIN | W 73-63 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Mar 11 | vsOKST | W 95-88 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 158.5 | O 183 |
| Mar 12 | vsKU | L 73-78 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 151 |
| Mar 19 | vs OSU | W 66-64 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
−25.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−5.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
+3.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
+12.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+15.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
+16.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
−8.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
+0.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−15.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−4.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−5.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+20.5
3
vsBAY
BAYW 69-63
+3.5
6
@KU
KUL 100-104
+2.5
10
vsARIZ
ARIZL 73-86
−5.5
14
@BYU
BYUL 70-76
+7.5
17
@UTAH
UTAHL 79-82
−7.5
20
vsOKST
OKSTW 68-65
−5.5
24
@BAY
BAYW 97-90
+11.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 70-79
−0.5
1
@COLO
COLOL 61-87
−27.5
7
vsKSU
KSUW 84-82
−7.5
10
vsISU
ISUW 62-55
+14.5
14
@OKST
OKSTW 95-92
+1.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 71-82
−12.5
21
vsWVU
WVUW 60-54
+1.5
24
vsASU
ASUW 90-78
+5.5
28
@KSU
KSUW 77-68
+5.5
3
@TTU
TTUW 73-65
+16.5
7
vsCIN
CINW 73-63
+7.5
11
vsOKST
OKSTW 95-88
−0.5
12
vsKU
KUL 73-78
−0.5
19
vsOSU
OSUW 66-64
+4.5
covered 19didn’t cover 15avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
+2.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−4.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
−34.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
−24.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+8.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
−20.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
+30.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
−15.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−9.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−22.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−6.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+35.5
3
vsBAY
BAYW 69-63
−22.5
6
@KU
KUL 100-104
+60.5
10
vsARIZ
ARIZL 73-86
+1.5
14
@BYU
BYUL 70-76
−16.5
17
@UTAH
UTAHL 79-82
+6.5
20
vsOKST
OKSTW 68-65
−28.5
24
@BAY
BAYW 97-90
+39.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 70-79
+9.5
1
@COLO
COLOL 61-87
−5.5
7
vsKSU
KSUW 84-82
+10.5
10
vsISU
ISUW 62-55
−30.5
14
@OKST
OKSTW 95-92
+30.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 71-82
−1.5
21
vsWVU
WVUW 60-54
−19.5
24
vsASU
ASUW 90-78
+18.5
28
@KSU
KSUW 77-68
−14.5
3
@TTU
TTUW 73-65
−9.5
7
vsCIN
CINW 73-63
−4.5
11
vsOKST
OKSTW 95-88
+24.5
12
vsKU
KUL 73-78
+4.5
19
vsOSU
OSUW 66-64
−15.5
over 15under 19avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Duke
35 games played
Straight up
33-2
94% wins
Against the spread
20-15
57% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-23
34% overs · avg −4.4 pts vs the total
Against the spread
20-1557%
2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs TEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vsKU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vsFLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @ MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vsTTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs GT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @ LOU | W 84-73 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs SMU | W 82-75 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | @ CAL | W 71-56 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | @ STAN | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vs WAKE | W 90-69 | -19.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 26 | vsLOU | W 83-52 | -8.5 | W +22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ VT | W 72-58 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 3 | vs BC | W 67-49 | -26.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 7 | @ UNC | L 68-71 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 10 | @ PITT | W 70-54 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 14 | vs CLEM | W 67-54 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 16 | vs SYR | W 101-64 | -20.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 21 | vsMICH | W 68-63 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | @ND | W 100-56 | -16.5 | W +27.5 | 141.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vs UVA | W 77-51 | -9.5 | W +16.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Mar 2 | @ NCSU | W 93-64 | -8.5 | W +20.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Mar 7 | vsUNC | W 76-61 | -18.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Mar 12 | vsFSU | W 80-79 | -16.5 | L −15.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Mar 13 | vsCLEM | W 73-61 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 134.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 14 | vsUVA | W 74-70 | -6.5 | L −2.5 | 140.5 | O 144 |
| Mar 19 | vs SIE | W 71-65 | -28.5 | L −22.5 | 137.5 | U 136 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
+9.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
−8.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
+0.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
+18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+1.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
+22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
+0.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−8.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−9.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−1.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
+0.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+16.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
+8.5
24
@ND
NDW 100-56
+27.5
28
vsUVA
UVAW 77-51
+16.5
2
@NCSU
NCSUW 93-64
+20.5
7
vsUNC
UNCW 76-61
−3.5
12
vsFSU
FSUW 80-79
−15.5
13
vsCLEM
CLEMW 73-61
+1.5
14
vsUVA
UVAW 74-70
−2.5
19
vsSIE
SIEW 71-65
−22.5
covered 20didn’t cover 15avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
−4.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
+1.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
−22.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
−18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+5.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
−22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
−18.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−25.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−13.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−12.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
−13.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+20.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
−20.5
24
@ND
NDW 100-56
+14.5
28
vsUVA
UVAW 77-51
−15.5
2
@NCSU
NCSUW 93-64
+6.5
7
vsUNC
UNCW 76-61
−10.5
12
vsFSU
FSUW 80-79
+8.5
13
vsCLEM
CLEMW 73-61
−0.5
14
vsUVA
UVAW 74-70
+3.5
19
vsSIE
SIEW 71-65
−1.5
over 12under 23avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
TCU
23-11 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Ohio State66–64
- Lvs Kansas73–78
- Wvs Oklahoma St95–88
- Wvs Cincinnati73–63
- W@ Texas Tech73–65
2 days since their last game.
Duke
33-2 overall · 20-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Siena71–65
- Wvs Virginia74–70
- Wvs Clemson73–61
- Wvs Florida St80–79
- Wvs North Carolina76–61
2 days since their last game.