Cameron Indoor Stadium · at Duke · Conference game
Closing line
DUKE -9.5✓ DUKE covered by 16.5
DUKE -9.5✓ DUKE covered by 16.5Closing total143.5Under by 15.5
 UVA | This season | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| 25-3 | Record | 26-2 |
| 15-13 | ATS | 17-11 |
| 11-17 | O/U | 9-19 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UVA 66–78 DUKE · ✓ DUKE (86%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 26 | 25 | 51 |
| DUKE | 41 | 36 | 77 |
1st half: UVA 26, DUKE 41 (DUKE by 15). The model had DUKE by 7.4 and a total of 67.5 (actual 67).
Team stats
| UVA | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 16-55 29% | Field goals | 26-53 49% |
| 7-35 20% | 3-pointers | 12-24 50% |
| 12-13 92% | Free throws | 13-14 93% |
| 29 9 off | Rebounds | 37 7 off |
| 10 | Assists | 17 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 16 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin Hall G | 29 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Sam Lewis G | 26 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-5 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 20 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 5-11 | 2-4 |
| Malik Thomas G | 20 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0-8 | 0-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 22 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Devin Tillis F | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 17 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Jacari White G | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-7 | 1-6 |
| Owen Odom G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Martin Carrere G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Desmond Roberts G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Elijah Gertrude G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Carter Lang F | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Silas Barksdale
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer F | 33 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 3-9 | 1-4 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 29 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 7-11 | 5-9 |
| Caleb Foster G | 24 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2-6 | 1-1 |
| Dame Sarr F | 23 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Patrick Ngongba II C | 23 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cayden Boozer G | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Maliq Brown F | 20 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Nik Khamenia F | 11 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Darren Harris G | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Cameron Sheffield G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jack Scott G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Sebastian Wilkins, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDUKE -9.5
no move
CloseDUKE -9.5
No change since the open
Total
Open137.5
▲ 6
Close143.5
Up 6 since the open
Moneyline
UVA +410 · DUKE -550
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DUKE -9.5 · unchangedmodel DUKE -12.5
model DUKE -12.5
Opened 137.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 6 upmodel 144
model 144
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | DUKE -9.5 | DUKE -12.6 | DUKE +3.1 | W DUKE covered |
| Total | 143.5 | 144.1 | Over 0.6 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | UVA 65.8 · DUKE 78.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | DUKE -7.4 | DUKE -15.0 |
| 1H total | 67.5 | 67 |
| 1H projected score | UVA 30 · DUKE 37.4 | UVA 26 · DUKE 41 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 9-1 90% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
| DUKE | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
UVA 2–4 DUKEDUKE leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · DUKE has won the last 3 meetings · UVA 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024-25 | DUKE 80 @ UVA 62 | UVA +13.5 | DUKE W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | UVA 48 @ DUKE 73 | DUKE -10 | DUKE W |
| Mar 11, 2022-23 | DUKE 59 vs UVA 49 | UVA +3.5 | DUKE W |
| Feb 11, 2022-23 | DUKE 62 @ UVA 69 | UVA -5.5 | UVA W |
| Feb 23, 2021-22 | DUKE 65 @ UVA 61 | UVA +5.5 | UVA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Virginia
28 games played
Straight up
25-3
89% wins
Against the spread
15-13
54% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-17
39% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @ VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs STAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @ LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ SMU | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vs UNC | L 80-85 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 27 | @ ND | W 100-97 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @ BC | W 73-66 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 3 | vs PITT | W 67-47 | -12.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 114 |
| Feb 7 | vs SYR | W 72-59 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 10 | @ FSU | W 61-58 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 14 | vs OSU | W 70-66 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 18 | @ GT | W 94-68 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 21 | vs MIA | W 86-83 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | vsNCSU | W 90-61 | -6.5 | W +22.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
+1.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
−11.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
−6.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−6.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
+7.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−0.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 61-58
−5.5
14
vsOSU
OSUW 70-66
−1.5
18
@GT
GTW 94-68
+12.5
21
vsMIA
MIAW 86-83
−4.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUW 90-61
+22.5
covered 15didn’t cover 13avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
−13.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
+12.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
+51.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−2.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
−28.5
7
vsSYR
SYRW 72-59
−16.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 61-58
−36.5
14
vsOSU
OSUW 70-66
−10.5
18
@GT
GTW 94-68
+11.5
21
vsMIA
MIAW 86-83
+23.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUW 90-61
−0.5
over 11under 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Duke
28 games played
Straight up
26-2
93% wins
Against the spread
17-11
61% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-19
32% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vsTEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vs KU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vs FLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @ MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vsGT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @LOU | W 84-73 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vsSMU | W 82-75 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | @CAL | W 71-56 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | @STAN | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vs WAKE | W 90-69 | -19.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 26 | vsLOU | W 83-52 | -8.5 | W +22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @VT | W 72-58 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 3 | vsBC | W 67-49 | -26.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 7 | @UNC | L 68-71 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 10 | @PITT | W 70-54 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 14 | vs CLEM | W 67-54 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 16 | vsSYR | W 101-64 | -20.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 21 | vs MICH | W 68-63 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | @ND | W 100-56 | -16.5 | W +27.5 | 141.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
+9.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
−8.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
+0.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
+18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+1.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
+22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
+0.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−8.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−9.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−1.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
+0.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+16.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
+8.5
24
@ND
NDW 100-56
+27.5
covered 17didn’t cover 11avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
−4.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
+1.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
−22.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
−18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+5.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
−22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
−18.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−25.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−13.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−12.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
−13.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+20.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
−20.5
24
@ND
NDW 100-56
+14.5
over 9under 19avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Virginia
25-3 overall · 13-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs NC State90–61
- Wvs Miami86–83
- W@ Georgia Tech94–68
- Wvs Ohio State70–66
- W@ Florida St61–58
4 days since their last game.
Duke
26-2 overall · 14-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Notre Dame100–56
- Wvs Michigan68–63
- Wvs Syracuse101–64
- Wvs Clemson67–54
- W@ Pitt70–54
4 days since their last game.