Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame · Conference game
Closing line
DUKE -16.5✓ DUKE covered by 27.5
DUKE -16.5✓ DUKE covered by 27.5Closing total141.5Over by 14.5
| DUKE | This season | ND |
|---|---|---|
| 25-2 | Record | 12-15 |
| 16-11 | ATS | 14-13 |
| 8-19 | O/U | 18-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DUKE 80–63 ND · ✓ DUKE (93%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 54 | 46 | 100 |
| ND | 22 | 34 | 56 |
1st half: DUKE 54, ND 22 (DUKE by 32). The model had DUKE by 9.9 and a total of 67.0 (actual 76).
Team stats
| DUKE | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-59 46% | Field goals | 19-52 37% |
| 12-33 36% | 3-pointers | 7-26 27% |
| 34-38 89% | Free throws | 11-19 58% |
| 49 14 off | Rebounds | 27 5 off |
| 20 | Assists | 9 |
| 11 | Steals | 1 |
| 1 | Blocks | 0 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 20 | Fouls | 22 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 19 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dame Sarr F | 26 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Cameron Boozer F | 24 | 24 | 13 | 2 | 5-8 | 2-2 |
| Caleb Foster G | 22 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 4-6 | 3-5 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 22 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2-7 | 2-6 |
| Patrick Ngongba II C | 15 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nik Khamenia F | 22 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Maliq Brown F | 22 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Cayden Boozer G | 21 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3-9 | 0-4 |
| Darren Harris G | 17 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-5 |
| Cameron Sheffield G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jack Scott G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Sebastian Wilkins, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Certa G | 31 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3-11 | 2-7 |
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 27 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-7 | 0-3 |
| Brady Koehler F | 27 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
| Carson Towt F | 24 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Logan Imes G | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sir Mohammed G | 28 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5-8 | 1-1 |
| Ryder Frost F | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-6 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Matthew MacLellan F | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Brady Stevens G | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Mark Zackery IV, Kebba Njie, Markus Burton, Jalen Haralson, Tommy Ahneman, Luke Devine
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDUKE -14.5
2 → DUKE
CloseDUKE -16.5
2 pts toward DUKE
Total
Open139.5
▲ 2
Close141.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
DUKE -2100 · ND +1100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DUKE -14.5 · closed DUKE -16.5 · moved 2 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -16.5 matches the line
model DUKE -16.5 = line ✓
Opened 139.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 2 upmodel 143
model 143
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | DUKE -16.5 | DUKE -16.5 | — | DUKE covered |
| Total | 141.5 | 143.2 | Over 1.7 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | DUKE 79.9 · ND 63.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | DUKE -9.9 | DUKE -32.0 |
| 1H total | 67.0 | 76 |
| 1H projected score | DUKE 38.5 · ND 28.6 | DUKE 54 · ND 22 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 2-8 20% |
| ND | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
DUKE 5–0 NDDUKE leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · DUKE has won the last 5 meetings · DUKE 2-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | ND 78 @ DUKE 86 | DUKE -19.5 | ND W |
| Feb 7, 2023-24 | ND 53 @ DUKE 71 | DUKE -17.5 | DUKE W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | DUKE 67 @ ND 59 | ND +14.5 | ND W |
| Feb 14, 2022-23 | ND 64 @ DUKE 68 | DUKE -12.5 | ND W |
| Jan 31, 2021-22 | DUKE 57 @ ND 43 | ND +5.5 | DUKE W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Duke
27 games played
Straight up
25-2
93% wins
Against the spread
16-11
59% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-19
30% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs TEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vs KU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vs FLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @ MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs GT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @ LOU | W 84-73 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs SMU | W 82-75 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | @ CAL | W 71-56 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | @ STAN | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vs WAKE | W 90-69 | -19.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 26 | vsLOU | W 83-52 | -8.5 | W +22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ VT | W 72-58 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 3 | vs BC | W 67-49 | -26.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 7 | @ UNC | L 68-71 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 10 | @ PITT | W 70-54 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 14 | vs CLEM | W 67-54 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 16 | vs SYR | W 101-64 | -20.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 21 | vs MICH | W 68-63 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
+9.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
−8.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
+0.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
+18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+1.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
+22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
+0.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−8.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−9.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−1.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
+0.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+16.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
+8.5
covered 16didn’t cover 11avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
−4.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
+1.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
−22.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
−18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+5.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
−22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
−18.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−25.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−13.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−12.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
−13.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+20.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
−20.5
over 8under 19avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Notre Dame
27 games played
Straight up
12-15
44% wins
Against the spread
14-13
52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-9
67% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vsKU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs EVAN | W 82-58 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 21 | vs PFW | L 69-72 | -11.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 30 | @STAN | W 47-40 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | @CAL | L 71-72 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | vsCLEM | L 61-76 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 133.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs MIA | L 69-81 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @VT | L 76-89 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | @UNC | L 69-91 | +13.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | vsBC | W 68-64 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 27 | vs UVA | L 97-100 | +9.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @SYR | L 72-86 | +6.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 4 | @LOU | L 65-76 | +19.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | vsFSU | L 79-82 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 10 | @SMU | L 81-89 | +10.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Feb 14 | vsGT | W 89-74 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 21 | @PITT | L 68-73 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+9.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−14.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
+13.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+2.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
−11.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
−6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
−6.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
−8.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−3.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+6.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
−7.5
4
@LOU
LOUL 65-76
+8.5
7
vsFSU
FSUL 79-82
−4.5
10
@SMU
SMUL 81-89
+2.5
14
vsGT
GTW 89-74
+9.5
21
@PITT
PITTL 68-73
−1.5
covered 14didn’t cover 13avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+3.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−8.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
−56.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+4.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
+3.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
+6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
+21.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
+10.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−5.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+51.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
+10.5
4
@LOU
LOUL 65-76
−14.5
7
vsFSU
FSUL 79-82
+6.5
10
@SMU
SMUL 81-89
+15.5
14
vsGT
GTW 89-74
+12.5
21
@PITT
PITTL 68-73
+0.5
over 18under 9avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Duke
25-2 overall · 13-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Michigan68–63
- Wvs Syracuse101–64
- Wvs Clemson67–54
- W@ Pitt70–54
- L@ North Carolina68–71
3 days since their last game.
Notre Dame
12-15 overall · 3-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Pitt68–73
- Wvs Georgia Tech89–74
- L@ SMU81–89
- Lvs Florida St79–82
- L@ Louisville65–76
3 days since their last game.