Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina · Conference game
Closing line
UNC -13.5✓ UNC covered by 8.5
UNC -13.5✓ UNC covered by 8.5Closing total149.5Over by 10.5
 ND | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 10-8 | Record | 14-4 |
| 10-8 | ATS | 9-9 |
| 11-7 | O/U | 8-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ND 68–79 UNC · ✓ UNC (82%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 33 | 36 | 69 |
| UNC | 42 | 49 | 91 |
1st half: ND 33, UNC 42 (UNC by 9). The model had UNC by 6.1 and a total of 68.7 (actual 75).
Team stats
| ND | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-75 36% | Field goals | 31-61 51% |
| 8-25 32% | 3-pointers | 13-34 38% |
| 7-13 54% | Free throws | 16-23 70% |
| 39 18 off | Rebounds | 44 10 off |
| 13 | Assists | 18 |
| 5 | Steals | 3 |
| 0 | Blocks | 5 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 27 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Cole Certa G | 24 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-5 |
| Brady Koehler F | 23 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Jalen Haralson G | 19 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6-16 | 0-1 |
| Carson Towt F | 18 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3-11 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Logan Imes G | 22 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-4 |
| Sir Mohammed G | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 6-11 | 1-3 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 15 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Ryder Frost F | 14 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 3-4 |
| Matthew MacLellan F | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Mark Zackery IV G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Brady Stevens G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Kebba Njie, Markus Burton, Tommy Ahneman, Luke Devine
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson F | 30 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 8-11 | 1-3 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 29 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 6-10 | 1-3 |
| Derek Dixon G | 27 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-6 | 3-5 |
| Seth Trimble G | 20 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Jaydon Young G | 14 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Luka Bogavac G | 24 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2-9 | 1-6 |
| Jonathan Powell G | 20 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 16 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Kyan Evans G | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Zayden High F | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Denis G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Davis G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| John Holbrook F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Evan Smith G | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ivan Matlekovic, James Brown
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -10.5
3 → UNC
CloseUNC -13.5
3 pts toward UNC
Total
Open145.5
▲ 4
Close149.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
ND +700 · UNC -1100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -10.5 · closed UNC -13.5 · moved 3 toward UNCmodel UNC -10.5
model UNC -10.5
Opened 145.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 4 upmodel 146.5
model 146.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNC -13.5 | UNC -10.5 | ND +3.0 | L UNC covered |
| Total | 149.5 | 146.7 | Under 2.8 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | ND 68.1 · UNC 78.6 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UNC -6.1 | UNC -9.0 |
| 1H total | 68.7 | 75 |
| 1H projected score | ND 31.3 · UNC 37.4 | ND 33 · UNC 42 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
| UNC | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
ND 1–5 UNCUNC leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · UNC has won the last 5 meetings · ND 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | ND 56 vs UNC 76 | UNC -10.5 | UNC W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | UNC 74 @ ND 73 | ND +3.5 | ND W |
| Mar 5, 2023-24 | ND 51 @ UNC 84 | UNC -16.5 | UNC W |
| Feb 22, 2022-23 | UNC 63 @ ND 59 | ND +6.5 | ND W |
| Jan 7, 2022-23 | ND 64 @ UNC 81 | UNC -11.5 | UNC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Notre Dame
18 games played
Straight up
10-8
56% wins
Against the spread
10-8
56% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-7
61% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs EVAN | W 82-58 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 21 | vs PFW | L 69-72 | -11.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 30 | @ STAN | W 47-40 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | @ CAL | L 71-72 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | vs CLEM | L 61-76 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 133.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs MIA | L 69-81 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ VT | L 76-89 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+9.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−14.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
+13.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+2.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
−11.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
−6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
−6.5
covered 10didn’t cover 8avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+3.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−8.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
−56.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+4.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
+3.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
+6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
+21.5
over 11under 7avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
18 games played
Straight up
14-4
78% wins
Against the spread
9-9
50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-10
44% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vsKU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vsOSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 30 | vs FSU | W 79-66 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ SMU | L 83-97 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 10 | vs WAKE | W 87-84 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | @STAN | L 90-95 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | @CAL | L 78-84 | -7.5 | L −13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
+0.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
−12.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
−7.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
−9.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
−13.5
covered 9didn’t cover 9avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
−21.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
+24.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
+16.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
+37.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
+10.5
over 8under 10avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Notre Dame
10-8 overall · 1-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Virginia Tech76–89
- Lvs Miami69–81
- Lvs Clemson61–76
- L@ California71–72
- W@ Stanford47–40
4 days since their last game.
North Carolina
14-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ California78–84
- L@ Stanford90–95
- Wvs Wake Forest87–84
- L@ SMU83–97
- Wvs Florida St79–66
4 days since their last game.