Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina · Conference game
Closing line
UNC -12.5✓ UNC covered by 0.5
UNC -12.5✓ UNC covered by 0.5Closing total166.5Under by 21.5
 FSU | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | Record | 12-1 |
| 7-6 | ATS | 8-5 |
| 5-8 | O/U | 4-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FSU 73–85 UNC · ✓ UNC (85%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 34 | 32 | 66 |
| UNC | 40 | 39 | 79 |
1st half: FSU 34, UNC 40 (UNC by 6). The model had UNC by 7.1 and a total of 73.8 (actual 74).
Team stats
| FSU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-66 35% | Field goals | 29-68 43% |
| 12-40 30% | 3-pointers | 7-29 24% |
| 8-14 57% | Free throws | 14-20 70% |
| 37 12 off | Rebounds | 47 16 off |
| 13 | Assists | 18 |
| 5 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 34 | 16 | 10 | 0 | 5-14 | 3-9 |
| Robert McCray V G | 33 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 5-13 | 1-5 |
| Martin Somerville G | 32 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-9 | 2-8 |
| Lajae Jones G | 30 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-5 |
| Alex Steen F | 20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kobe MaGee G | 23 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4-10 | 4-9 |
| Cam Miles G | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Alier Maluk F | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| AJ Swinton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jalen Crawford, Shah Muhammad, Max Garcia-Plata, Xavier Osceola
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson F | 36 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 9-15 | 0-1 |
| Seth Trimble G | 35 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 6-13 | 0-2 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 29 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| Kyan Evans G | 23 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 5-15 | 5-12 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 26 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Derek Dixon G | 20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Jaydon Young G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Isaiah Denis, John Holbrook, Elijah Davis, Ivan Matlekovic, Evan Smith, Zayden High, James Brown
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -16.5
4 → FSU
CloseUNC -12.5
4 pts toward FSU
Total
Open159.5
▲ 7
Close166.5
Up 7 since the open
Moneyline
FSU +675 · UNC -1050
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -16.5 · closed UNC -12.5 · moved 4 toward FSUmodel UNC -12
model UNC -12
Opened 159.5 · closed 166.5 · moved 7 upmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNC -12.5 | UNC -12.1 | FSU +0.4 | L UNC covered |
| Total | 166.5 | 157.7 | Under 8.8 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | FSU 72.8 · UNC 84.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UNC -7.1 | UNC -6.0 |
| 1H total | 73.8 | 74 |
| 1H projected score | FSU 33.4 · UNC 40.5 | FSU 34 · UNC 40 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| UNC | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
FSU 0–6 UNCUNC leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · UNC has won the last 6 meetings · FSU 1-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024-25 | UNC 96 @ FSU 85 | FSU +3.5 | UNC W |
| Mar 14, 2023-24 | FSU 67 vs UNC 92 | UNC -10.5 | UNC W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | UNC 75 @ FSU 68 | FSU +6.5 | UNC W |
| Dec 2, 2023-24 | FSU 70 @ UNC 78 | UNC -12.5 | FSU W |
| Feb 27, 2022-23 | UNC 77 @ FSU 66 | FSU +7.5 | UNC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Florida St
13 games played
Straight up
7-6
54% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg −5.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-8
38% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs JAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
over 5under 8avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
13 games played
Straight up
12-1
92% wins
Against the spread
8-5
62% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-9
31% overs · avg −10.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
covered 8didn’t cover 5avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
over 4under 9avg −10.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Florida St
7-6 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Jacksonville87–63
- Wvs Miss Valley St96–49
- L@ Dayton69–97
- Lvs UMass95–103
- Lvs Houston67–82
A week or more of rest.
North Carolina
12-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs East Carolina99–51
- Wvs Ohio State71–70
- Wvs ETSU77–58
- Wvs SC Upstate80–62
- Wvs Georgetown81–61
A week or more of rest.