Savage Arena · at Toledo · Conference game
Closing line
TOL -10.5✓ WMU covered by 5.5
TOL -10.5✓ WMU covered by 5.5Closing total160.5Over by 2.5
 WMU | This season | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | Record | 4-6 |
| 6-5 | ATS | 5-5 |
| 6-5 | O/U | 4-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: WMU 76–84 TOL · ✓ TOL (78%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 41 | 38 | 79 |
| TOL | 32 | 52 | 84 |
1st half: WMU 41, TOL 32 (WMU by 9). The model had TOL by 5.1 and a total of 74.8 (actual 73).
Team stats
| WMU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-69 43% | Field goals | 28-65 43% |
| 9-26 35% | 3-pointers | 4-25 16% |
| 10-14 71% | Free throws | 24-36 67% |
| 42 18 off | Rebounds | 44 21 off |
| 14 | Assists | 10 |
| 6 | Steals | 6 |
| 5 | Blocks | 4 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 27 | Fouls | 17 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 19 |
Players
| WMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Ryans G | 31 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4-10 | 2-4 |
| Max Burton F | 27 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Brewer G | 23 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 2-9 | 0-2 |
| Jalen Griffith G | 19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Brady Swartz G | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Justice Williams G | 30 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 8-23 | 1-7 |
| Trey Lewis G | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4-7 | 3-6 |
| Sharod Barnes G | 14 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Declan Peterson C | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Carson Vis G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Camden Thompson, Nicholas Errica, Junior Sileu, Hudson Ward, Michael Sulaka
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 38 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 3-10 | 0-1 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 35 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 5-10 | 1-4 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 34 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 12-23 | 3-10 |
| Sean Craig F | 30 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 6-10 | 0-4 |
| Austin Parks C | 17 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 17 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Will James Jr. G | 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Mynor Strong G | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| London Praytor F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Tyler Ode, Phoenix Glassnor, Toby Nwokolo, Chris Riddle
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTOL -10.5
no move
CloseTOL -10.5
No change since the open
Total
Open162.5
▼ 2
Close160.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
WMU +440 · TOL -600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TOL -10.5 · unchangedmodel TOL -8.5
model TOL -8.5
Opened 162.5 · closed 160.5 · moved 2 downmodel 160
model 160
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TOL -10.5 | TOL -8.7 | WMU +1.8 | W WMU covered |
| Total | 160.5 | 159.8 | Under 0.7 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | WMU 75.6 · TOL 84.2 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TOL -5.1 | WMU -9.0 |
| 1H total | 74.8 | 73 |
| 1H projected score | WMU 34.9 · TOL 39.9 | WMU 41 · TOL 32 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| TOL | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
WMU 0–5 TOLTOL leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 5 meetings · WMU 0-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | TOL 76 @ WMU 70 | WMU +2.5 | TOL W |
| Jan 30, 2023-24 | WMU 63 @ TOL 88 | TOL -11.5 | TOL W |
| Jan 6, 2022-23 | WMU 74 @ TOL 102 | TOL -15.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 22, 2021-22 | TOL 92 @ WMU 50 | WMU +13 | TOL W |
| Dec 29, 2021-22 | WMU 56 @ TOL 83 | TOL -17 | TOL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
W Michigan
11 games played
Straight up
5-6
45% wins
Against the spread
6-5
55% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CCU | W 76-71 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 9 | @ CAM | L 82-91 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 12 | vs PFW | W 83-71 | +3.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | @ SDAK | L 78-83 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 172.5 | U 161 |
| Nov 20 | @ OSU | L 58-91 | +26.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 23 | vs MSM | W 83-60 | -1.5 | W +21.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 29 | @ VAL | L 55-84 | +4.5 | L −24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 3 | vs USI | W 88-74 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 6 | @ SIUE | W 83-73 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 139.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 14 | @ IOWA | L 51-91 | +25.5 | L −14.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 20 | vs BUF | L 71-88 | +2.5 | L −14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCCU
CCUW 76-71
+2.5
9
@CAM
CAML 82-91
+0.5
12
vsPFW
PFWW 83-71
+15.5
16
@SDAK
SDAKL 78-83
−1.5
20
@OSU
OSUL 58-91
−6.5
23
vsMSM
MSMW 83-60
+21.5
29
@VAL
VALL 55-84
−24.5
3
vsUSI
USIW 88-74
+8.5
6
@SIUE
SIUEW 83-73
+15.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 51-91
−14.5
20
vsBUF
BUFL 71-88
−14.5
covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCCU
CCUW 76-71
+0.5
9
@CAM
CAML 82-91
+20.5
12
vsPFW
PFWW 83-71
−7.5
16
@SDAK
SDAKL 78-83
−11.5
20
@OSU
OSUL 58-91
−10.5
23
vsMSM
MSMW 83-60
−7.5
29
@VAL
VALL 55-84
−7.5
3
vsUSI
USIW 88-74
+11.5
6
@SIUE
SIUEW 83-73
+16.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 51-91
+4.5
20
vsBUF
BUFL 71-88
+8.5
over 6under 5avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Toledo
10 games played
Straight up
4-6
40% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-6
40% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
over 4under 6avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
W Michigan
5-6 overall · 0-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Buffalo71–88
- L@ Iowa51–91
- W@ SIUE83–73
- Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles88–74
- L@ Valparaiso55–84
A week or more of rest.
Toledo
4-6 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Michigan St69–92
- L@ Robert Morris70–75
- L@ Oakland97–98
- Lvs Belmont72–87
- Wvs Troy75–68
A week or more of rest.