Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame · Conference game
Closing line
UVA -9.5✓ ND covered by 6.5
UVA -9.5✓ ND covered by 6.5Closing total145.5Over by 51.5
| UVA | This season | ND |
|---|---|---|
| 16-3 | Record | 11-9 |
| 12-7 | ATS | 10-10 |
| 8-11 | O/U | 12-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UVA 76–69 ND · ✓ UVA (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | 2OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 35 | 38 | 12 | 15 | 100 |
| ND | 44 | 29 | 12 | 12 | 97 |
1st half: UVA 35, ND 44 (ND by 9). The model had UVA by 4.0 and a total of 68.0 (actual 79).
Team stats
| UVA | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-65 48% | Field goals | 29-61 48% |
| 10-29 34% | 3-pointers | 11-27 41% |
| 28-35 80% | Free throws | 28-34 82% |
| 40 14 off | Rebounds | 35 9 off |
| 21 | Assists | 15 |
| 5 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 27 | Fouls | 25 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Lewis G | 43 | 21 | 9 | 6 | 7-13 | 5-8 |
| Dallin Hall G | 43 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 34 | 32 | 8 | 3 | 9-20 | 0-5 |
| Malik Thomas G | 22 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 37 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 5-9 | 3-6 |
| Devin Tillis F | 30 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-3 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Jacari White G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Elijah Gertrude G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Martin Carrere G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Owen Odom, Desmond Roberts, Silas Barksdale, Carter Lang
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 47 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 6-15 | 5-9 |
| Jalen Haralson G | 44 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 6-11 | 0-1 |
| Brady Koehler F | 42 | 16 | 10 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Cole Certa G | 40 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 10-19 | 5-13 |
| Carson Towt F | 17 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Garrett Sundra F | 25 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Logan Imes G | 17 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sir Mohammed G | 14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Ryder Frost F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tommy Ahneman, Luke Devine, Matthew MacLellan, Brady Stevens, Mark Zackery IV, Kebba Njie, Markus Burton
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -9.5
ModelUVA -6.5
Model edgeND +3.0
W ND covered
Total
Market145.5
Model145.1
Model edgeUnder 0.4
L Over
Projected score
UVA 75.8 · ND 69.3
UVA 100 · ND 97
Win probability
UVA 72%
1st half
Spread
UVA -4.0
ND -9.0
Total
68.0
79 points
Projected score
UVA 36 · ND 32
UVA 35 · ND 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -6.5
3 → UVA
CloseUVA -9.5
3 pts toward UVA
Total
Open140.5
▲ 5
Close145.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
UVA -520 · ND +390
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -6.5 · closed UVA -9.5 · moved 3 toward UVAmodel UVA -6.5
model UVA -6.5
Opened 140.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 5 upmodel 145
model 145
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| ND | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UVA 2–3 NDND leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · UVA 0-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | ND 74 @ UVA 59 | UVA +1.5 | ND W |
| Jan 31, 2023-24 | ND 53 @ UVA 65 | UVA -13.5 | ND W |
| Dec 30, 2023-24 | UVA 54 @ ND 76 | ND +9.5 | ND W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | ND 55 @ UVA 57 | UVA -12.5 | ND W |
| Jan 29, 2021-22 | UVA 65 @ ND 69 | ND -3 | ND W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Virginia
19 games played
Straight up
16-3
84% wins
Against the spread
12-7
63% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-11
42% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @ VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs STAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @ LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ SMU | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vs UNC | L 80-85 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
+1.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
−11.5
covered 12didn’t cover 7avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
−13.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
+12.5
over 8under 11avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Notre Dame
20 games played
Straight up
11-9
55% wins
Against the spread
10-10
50% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-8
60% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs EVAN | W 82-58 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 21 | vs PFW | L 69-72 | -11.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 30 | @STAN | W 47-40 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | @CAL | L 71-72 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | vs CLEM | L 61-76 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 133.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs MIA | L 69-81 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @VT | L 76-89 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | @UNC | L 69-91 | +13.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | vs BC | W 68-64 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+9.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−14.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
+13.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+2.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
−11.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
−6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
−6.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
−8.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−3.5
covered 10didn’t cover 10avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+3.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−8.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
−56.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+4.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
+3.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
+6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
+21.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
+10.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−5.5
over 12under 8avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Virginia
16-3 overall · 5-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs North Carolina80–85
- W@ SMU72–68
- W@ Louisville79–70
- Wvs Stanford70–55
- Wvs California84–60
3 days since their last game.
Notre Dame
11-9 overall · 2-5 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Boston College68–64
- L@ North Carolina69–91
- L@ Virginia Tech76–89
- Lvs Miami69–81
- Lvs Clemson61–76
3 days since their last game.