John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia
Closing line
UVA -16.5✓ MD covered by 8.5
UVA -16.5✓ MD covered by 8.5Closing total153.5Under by 1.5
 MD | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | Record | 9-1 |
| 4-7 | ATS | 6-4 |
| 9-2 | O/U | 6-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MD 71–81 UVA · ✓ UVA (80%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD | 19 | 53 | 72 |
| UVA | 24 | 56 | 80 |
1st half: MD 19, UVA 24 (UVA by 5). The model had UVA by 5.6 and a total of 71.3 (actual 43).
Team stats
| MD | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-54 41% | Field goals | 30-66 45% |
| 12-29 41% | 3-pointers | 7-20 35% |
| 16-22 73% | Free throws | 13-21 62% |
| 41 17 off | Rebounds | 34 16 off |
| 12 | Assists | 18 |
| 2 | Steals | 15 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 12 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| MD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solomon Washington F | 36 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 2-8 | 0-2 |
| George Turkson Jr. G | 26 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| David Coit G | 26 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 4-9 | 3-7 |
| Myles Rice G | 24 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 3-10 | 2-4 |
| Elijah Saunders F | 24 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Andre Mills G | 23 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Darius Adams G | 22 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-10 | 1-4 |
| Isaiah Watts G | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Collin Metcalf C | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jaziah Harper, Guillermo Del Pino, Aleks Alston, Nick Blake, Lukas Sotell, Pharrel Payne, Rakease Passmore
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Lewis G | 28 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-2 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 24 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Dallin Hall G | 24 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 8-8 | 1-1 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 22 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1-8 | 0-2 |
| Malik Thomas G | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 24 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2-9 | 0-2 |
| Devin Tillis F | 22 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Jacari White G | 22 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 4-10 | 3-7 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
Did not play: Owen Odom, Martin Carrere, Desmond Roberts, Silas Barksdale, Elijah Gertrude, Carter Lang
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -14.5
2 → UVA
CloseUVA -16.5
2 pts toward UVA
Total
Open153.5
no move
Close153.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MD +1000 · UVA -1800
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -14.5 · closed UVA -16.5 · moved 2 toward UVAmodel UVA -9.5
model UVA -9.5
Opened 153.5 · unchangedmodel 152.5
model 152.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UVA -16.5 | UVA -9.5 | MD +7.0 | W MD covered |
| Total | 153.5 | 152.3 | Under 1.2 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | MD 71.4 · UVA 80.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UVA -5.6 | UVA -5.0 |
| 1H total | 71.3 | 43 |
| 1H projected score | MD 32.9 · UVA 38.5 | MD 19 · UVA 24 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
| UVA | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Maryland
11 games played
Straight up
6-5
55% wins
Against the spread
4-7
36% covers · avg −6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-2
82% overs · avg +7.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COPP | W 83-61 | -28.5 | L −6.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 7 | vs GTWN | L 60-70 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 11 | vs ALCN | W 84-64 | -29.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 15 | @ MARQ | W 89-82 | +8.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | vs MSM | W 95-90 | -17.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 24 | vs UNLV | W 74-67 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 164.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 25 | vs GONZ | L 61-100 | +14.5 | L −24.5 | 157.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs ALA | L 72-105 | +14.5 | L −18.5 | 166.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 2 | vs WAG | W 89-63 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 6 | @ IOWA | L 64-83 | +10.5 | L −8.5 | 137.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 13 | vs MICH | L 83-101 | +19.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOPP
COPPW 83-61
−6.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNL 60-70
−14.5
11
vsALCN
ALCNW 84-64
−9.5
15
@MARQ
MARQW 89-82
+15.5
19
vsMSM
MSMW 95-90
−12.5
24
vsUNLV
UNLVW 74-67
+4.5
25
vsGONZ
GONZL 61-100
−24.5
26
vsALA
ALAL 72-105
−18.5
2
vsWAG
WAGW 89-63
+3.5
6
@IOWA
IOWAL 64-83
−8.5
13
vsMICH
MICHL 83-101
+1.5
covered 4didn’t cover 7avg −6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOPP
COPPW 83-61
+4.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNL 60-70
−14.5
11
vsALCN
ALCNW 84-64
+1.5
15
@MARQ
MARQW 89-82
+24.5
19
vsMSM
MSMW 95-90
+39.5
24
vsUNLV
UNLVW 74-67
−23.5
25
vsGONZ
GONZL 61-100
+3.5
26
vsALA
ALAL 72-105
+10.5
2
vsWAG
WAGW 89-63
+8.5
6
@IOWA
IOWAL 64-83
+9.5
13
vsMICH
MICHL 83-101
+20.5
over 9under 2avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
10 games played
Straight up
9-1
90% wins
Against the spread
6-4
60% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-4
60% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
over 6under 4avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Maryland
6-5 overall · 0-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Michigan83–101
- L@ Iowa64–83
- Wvs Wagner89–63
- Lvs Alabama72–105
- Lvs Gonzaga61–100
A week or more of rest.
Virginia
9-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs MD Eastern84–60
- Wvs Dayton86–73
- W@ Texas88–69
- Wvs Queens University Royals94–69
- Lvs Butler73–80
A week or more of rest.