John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia · Conference game
Closing line
UVA -6.5✓ UNC covered by 11.5
UVA -6.5✓ UNC covered by 11.5Closing total152.5Over by 12.5
 UNC | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 15-4 | Record | 16-2 |
| 10-9 | ATS | 12-6 |
| 9-10 | O/U | 7-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNC 74–77 UVA · ✗ UVA (61%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 34 | 51 | 85 |
| UVA | 43 | 37 | 80 |
1st half: UNC 34, UVA 43 (UVA by 9). The model had UVA by 1.8 and a total of 71.0 (actual 77).
Team stats
| UNC | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-61 49% | Field goals | 29-64 45% |
| 10-22 45% | 3-pointers | 8-27 30% |
| 15-22 68% | Free throws | 14-20 70% |
| 28 8 off | Rebounds | 44 16 off |
| 17 | Assists | 14 |
| 5 | Steals | 2 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 21 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Trimble G | 34 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 5-6 | 2-2 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 34 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 8-12 | 0-0 |
| Derek Dixon G | 33 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 4-11 | 2-3 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Jaydon Young G | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Luka Bogavac G | 28 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 4-7 | 3-5 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 16 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 6-9 | 2-4 |
| Jonathan Powell G | 10 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Kyan Evans G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Zayden High F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Elijah Davis, Isaiah Denis, John Holbrook, Ivan Matlekovic, James Brown, Evan Smith
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thijs De Ridder F | 31 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 7-11 | 1-1 |
| Dallin Hall G | 30 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 4-8 | 0-2 |
| Sam Lewis G | 28 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Malik Thomas G | 28 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 22 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 24 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 18 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-1 |
| Jacari White G | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Devin Tillis F | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Silas Barksdale, Elijah Gertrude, Desmond Roberts, Martin Carrere, Carter Lang, Owen Odom
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -6.5
no move
CloseUVA -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open149.5
▲ 3
Close152.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
UNC +235 · UVA -290
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -6.5 · unchangedmodel UVA -3
model UVA -3
Opened 149.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 3 upmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UVA -6.5 | UVA -3.2 | UNC +3.3 | W UNC covered |
| Total | 152.5 | 151.6 | Under 0.9 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | UNC 74.2 · UVA 77.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UVA -1.8 | UVA -9.0 |
| 1H total | 71.0 | 77 |
| 1H projected score | UNC 34.6 · UVA 36.4 | UNC 34 · UVA 43 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| UVA | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
UNC 5–2 UVAUNC leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · UNC has won the last 2 meetings · UNC 5-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | UVA 66 @ UNC 81 | UNC -9.5 | UNC W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | UNC 54 @ UVA 44 | UVA +3 | UNC W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | UNC 59 vs UVA 68 | UVA -1.5 | UVA W |
| Feb 25, 2022-23 | UVA 63 @ UNC 71 | UNC -4.5 | UNC W |
| Jan 10, 2022-23 | UNC 58 @ UVA 65 | UVA -4.5 | UVA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
North Carolina
19 games played
Straight up
15-4
79% wins
Against the spread
10-9
53% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-10
47% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 30 | vs FSU | W 79-66 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ SMU | L 83-97 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 10 | vs WAKE | W 87-84 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | @ STAN | L 90-95 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | @ CAL | L 78-84 | -7.5 | L −13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 21 | vs ND | W 91-69 | -13.5 | W +8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
+0.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
−12.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
−7.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
−9.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
−13.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+8.5
covered 10didn’t cover 9avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
−21.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
+24.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
+16.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
+37.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
+10.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+10.5
over 9under 10avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
18 games played
Straight up
16-2
89% wins
Against the spread
12-6
67% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-11
39% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vsNCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @ VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vsCAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vsSTAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @ LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @SMU | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
+1.5
covered 12didn’t cover 6avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
−13.5
over 7under 11avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
North Carolina
15-4 overall · 3-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Notre Dame91–69
- L@ California78–84
- L@ Stanford90–95
- Wvs Wake Forest87–84
- L@ SMU83–97
3 days since their last game.
Virginia
16-2 overall · 5-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ SMU72–68
- W@ Louisville79–70
- Wvs Stanford70–55
- Wvs California84–60
- W@ NC State76–61
A week or more of rest.