John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia · Conference game
Closing line
UVA -12.5✓ UVA covered by 2.5
UVA -12.5✓ UVA covered by 2.5Closing total143.5Under by 18.5
 STAN | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 13-3 | Record | 13-2 |
| 9-7 | ATS | 9-6 |
| 6-10 | O/U | 7-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: STAN 70–80 UVA · ✓ UVA (81%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 34 | 21 | 55 |
| UVA | 41 | 29 | 70 |
1st half: STAN 34, UVA 41 (UVA by 7). The model had UVA by 5.9 and a total of 70.1 (actual 75).
Team stats
| STAN | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 18-56 32% | Field goals | 25-57 44% |
| 5-26 19% | 3-pointers | 6-22 27% |
| 14-17 82% | Free throws | 14-17 82% |
| 33 12 off | Rebounds | 37 12 off |
| 9 | Assists | 17 |
| 7 | Steals | 3 |
| 4 | Blocks | 7 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| STAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Gealer G | 32 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 5-12 | 3-9 |
| Ebuka Okorie G | 30 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 5-20 | 0-6 |
| Oskar Giltay C | 23 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Agarwal G | 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Chisom Okpara F | 20 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cameron Grant G | 18 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Jeremy Dent-Smith G | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-5 |
| AJ Rohosy F | 15 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Donavin Young F | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Aidan Cammann F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Thompson F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Stinson, Anthony Batson Jr., Tallis Toure, Ethan Kitch, Myles Jones, Kristers Skrinda
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin Hall G | 33 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 31 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 8-11 | 1-2 |
| Malik Thomas G | 29 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 5-15 | 0-5 |
| Sam Lewis G | 28 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-4 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 20 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 26 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 20 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Devin Tillis F | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Desmond Roberts, Martin Carrere, Elijah Gertrude, Silas Barksdale, Owen Odom, Carter Lang, Jacari White
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -11.5
1 → UVA
CloseUVA -12.5
1 pt toward UVA
Total
Open147.5
▼ 4
Close143.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
STAN +600 · UVA -900
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -11.5 · closed UVA -12.5 · moved 1 toward UVAmodel UVA -10
model UVA -10
Opened 147.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 4 downmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UVA -12.5 | UVA -10.1 | STAN +2.4 | L UVA covered |
| Total | 143.5 | 149.7 | Over 6.2 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | STAN 69.8 · UVA 79.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UVA -5.9 | UVA -7.0 |
| 1H total | 70.1 | 75 |
| 1H projected score | STAN 32.1 · UVA 38 | STAN 34 · UVA 41 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| UVA | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
STAN 1–0 UVASTAN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · STAN 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | UVA 65 @ STAN 88 | STAN -8.5 | STAN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Stanford
16 games played
Straight up
13-3
81% wins
Against the spread
9-7
56% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-10
38% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs PRST | W 89-79 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs MONT | W 91-68 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 12 | vs MTST | W 77-68 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 18 | vs UL | W 93-66 | -20.5 | W +6.5 | 139.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 21 | vs SEA | L 69-77 | -10.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 27 | vs MINN | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs SLU | W 78-77 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs PORT | W 94-72 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 7 | vs UNLV | L 74-75 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | @ SJSU | W 86-82 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTA | W 76-60 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 20 | vs COLO | W 77-68 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 27 | vs CSUN | W 88-80 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 30 | vs ND | L 40-47 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | vs LOU | W 80-76 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 7 | @ VT | W 69-68 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
−1.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+10.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−5.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+6.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−18.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
+1.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
+2.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+2.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−10.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
−4.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
+5.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
+11.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
−7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−13.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
+11.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
+4.5
covered 9didn’t cover 7avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
+23.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+8.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−3.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+19.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−6.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
−2.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
−5.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+9.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−15.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
+22.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
−3.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
−9.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
+7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−56.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
−1.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
−11.5
over 6under 10avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
15 games played
Straight up
13-2
87% wins
Against the spread
9-6
60% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-8
47% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
over 7under 8avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Stanford
13-3 overall · 2-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Virginia Tech69–68
- Wvs Louisville80–76
- Lvs Notre Dame40–47
- Wvs CSU Northridge88–80
- Wvs Colorado77–68
3 days since their last game.
Virginia
13-2 overall · 2-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs California84–60
- W@ NC State76–61
- L@ Virginia Tech85–95
- Wvs American95–51
- Wvs Maryland80–72
3 days since their last game.