Stanford Cardinal at Virginia Tech Hokies: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ETCassell Coliseum · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

#85STANStanford69▲ winner

Final

Closing lineVT -3.5✓ STAN covered by 4.5

Closing total148.5Under by 11.5

Season records: Stanford and Virginia Tech
STAN	This season	VT
12-3	Record	12-3
8-7	ATS	9-6
6-9	O/U	9-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STAN 75–79 VT · ✗ VT (63%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
STAN	24	45	69
VT	31	37	68

1st half: STAN 24, VT 31 (VT by 7). The model had VT by 2.2 and a total of 72.4 (actual 55).

Team stats

STAN		VT
26-58 45%	Field goals	21-53 40%
10-28 36%	3-pointers	7-20 35%
7-9 78%	Free throws	19-25 76%
31 10 off	Rebounds	36 14 off
11	Assists	7
7	Steals	4
6	Blocks	2
8	Turnovers	9
21	Fouls	13
30	Points in paint	20
4	Fast-break points	0

Players

STAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ebuka Okorie G	38	31	2	6	11-18	4-8
Oskar Giltay C	31	8	13	1	4-6	0-0
Benny Gealer G	28	9	5	0	3-6	3-5
Chisom Okpara F	27	4	1	0	1-11	0-5
Ryan Agarwal G	22	2	1	0	1-4	0-3
Bench
Donavin Young F	19	11	0	2	4-6	3-5
Aidan Cammann F	13	4	3	0	2-4	0-0
Jeremy Dent-Smith G	12	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
AJ Rohosy F	7	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Cameron Grant G	3	0	1	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jaylen Thompson, Tallis Toure, Kristers Skrinda, Myles Jones, Ethan Kitch, Anthony Batson Jr., Evan Stinson

VT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amani Hansberry F	37	11	11	2	4-10	1-4
Neo Avdalas G	35	21	2	3	7-15	1-5
Jaden Schutt G	31	6	2	0	2-5	2-4
Jailen Bedford G	25	7	4	0	2-10	1-4
Christian Gurdak C	23	2	9	0	0-3	0-0
Bench
Ben Hammond G	24	14	2	1	4-7	2-2
Tobi Lawal F	18	5	3	1	2-3	0-1
Izaiah Pasha G	5	2	1	0	0-0	0-0
Sin'Cere Jones F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Antonio Dorn, Solomon Davis, Shamarius Peterkin, Brett Freeman, Tyler Johnson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VT -3.5	VT -3.9	VT +0.4	L STAN covered
Total	148.5	154.6	Over 6.1	L Under
Projected score	—	STAN 75.4 · VT 79.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VT -2.2	VT -7.0
1H total	72.4	55
1H projected score	STAN 35.1 · VT 37.3	STAN 24 · VT 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN WWLLW	8-7	53%	0-1	3-0
VT WWLWW	9-6	60%	6-3	5-4

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN UUOUU	6-9	40%	12-3
VT OUOOO	9-6	60%	12-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
VT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

STAN 1–0 VTSTAN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · STAN 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 8, 2024-25	VT 59 @ STAN 70	STAN -9.5	STAN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stanford

15 games played

Straight up

12-3

80% wins

Against the spread

8-7

53% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-9

40% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-380%

W W W W L W W W L W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

8-753%

L W L W L W W W L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-940%

O O U O U U U O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsPRST	W 89-79	-11.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsMONT	W 91-68	-12.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMTST	W 77-68	-14.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	vsUL	W 93-66	-20.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	vsSEA	L 69-77	-10.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 27	vsMINN	W 72-68	-2.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSLU	W 78-77	+1.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 155
Dec 1	vsPORT	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	156.5	O 166
Dec 7	vsUNLV	L 74-75	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 149
Dec 13	@SJSU	W 86-82	-8.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 17	vsUTA	W 76-60	-10.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 136
Dec 20	vsCOLO	W 77-68	+2.5	W +11.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 27	vsCSUN	W 88-80	-15.5	L −7.5	160.5	O 168
Dec 30	vsND	L 40-47	-6.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 87
Jan 2	vsLOU	W 80-76	+7.5	W +11.5	157.5	U 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

−1.5

MONT

W 91-68

+10.5

MTST

W 77-68

−5.5

W 93-66

+6.5

SEA

L 69-77

−18.5

MINN

W 72-68

+1.5

SLU

W 78-77

+2.5

PORT

W 94-72

+2.5

UNLV

L 74-75

−10.5

SJSU

W 86-82

−4.5

UTA

W 76-60

+5.5

COLO

W 77-68

+11.5

CSUN

W 88-80

−7.5

L 40-47

−13.5

LOU

W 80-76

+11.5

covered 8didn’t cover 7avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

+23.5

MONT

W 91-68

+8.5

MTST

W 77-68

−3.5

W 93-66

+19.5

SEA

L 69-77

−6.5

MINN

W 72-68

−2.5

SLU

W 78-77

−5.5

PORT

W 94-72

+9.5

UNLV

L 74-75

−15.5

SJSU

W 86-82

+22.5

UTA

W 76-60

−3.5

COLO

W 77-68

−9.5

CSUN

W 88-80

+7.5

L 40-47

−56.5

LOU

W 80-76

−1.5

over 6under 9avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Virginia Tech

15 games played

Straight up

12-3

80% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-6

60% overs · avg +6.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-380%

W W W W W W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-660%

W W W L L L L L W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-660%

O O U O U U U O O U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHSO	W 98-67	-18.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsPROV	W 107-101	+2.5	W +8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 12	vsJOES	W 94-59	-12.5	W +22.5	158.5	U 153
Nov 16	vsCLT	W 84-76	-18.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 19	vsBRY	W 78-61	-24.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 26	vsCSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 130
Nov 27	vsSMC	L 66-77	+5.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVCU	L 68-86	+2.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 154
Dec 2	@SC	W 86-83	+2.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsGMU	W 73-62	-4.5	W +6.5	144.5	U 135
Dec 11	vsWCU	W 96-74	-20.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 14	vsUMES	W 82-53	-27.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 20	vsELON	W 82-81	-12.5	L −11.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 31	vsUVA	W 95-85	+5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 180
Jan 3	@WAKE	L 78-81	+5.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+12.5

PROV

W 107-101

+8.5

JOES

W 94-59

+22.5

CLT

W 84-76

−10.5

BRY

W 78-61

−7.5

CSU

W 66-64

−2.5

SMC

L 66-77

−5.5

VCU

L 68-86

−15.5

W 86-83

+5.5

GMU

W 73-62

+6.5

WCU

W 96-74

+1.5

UMES

W 82-53

+1.5

ELON

W 82-81

−11.5

UVA

W 95-85

+15.5

WAKE

L 78-81

+2.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+18.5

PROV

W 107-101

+50.5

JOES

W 94-59

−5.5

CLT

W 84-76

+14.5

BRY

W 78-61

−12.5

CSU

W 66-64

−23.5

SMC

L 66-77

−1.5

VCU

L 68-86

+0.5

W 86-83

+19.5

GMU

W 73-62

−9.5

WCU

W 96-74

+17.5

UMES

W 82-53

−4.5

ELON

W 82-81

+4.5

UVA

W 95-85

+26.5

WAKE

L 78-81

+5.5

over 9under 6avg +6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stanford Cardinal at Virginia Tech Hokies

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Stanford

Virginia Tech

Stanford

Virginia Tech