Bucknell Bison at Navy Midshipmen: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ETAlumni Hall (Navy) · at Navy · Conference game

#299BUCKBucknell55final

Final

#199NAVYNavy76▲ winner

Closing lineNAVY -8.5✓ NAVY covered by 12.5

Closing total137.5Under by 6.5

Season records: Bucknell and Navy
BUCK	This season	NAVY
4-11	Record	8-5
7-8	ATS	7-6
3-12	O/U	4-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BUCK 65–74 NAVY · ✓ NAVY (78%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BUCK	32	23	55
NAVY	33	43	76

1st half: BUCK 32, NAVY 33 (NAVY by 1). The model had NAVY by 5.3 and a total of 64.7 (actual 65).

Team stats

BUCK		NAVY
18-53 34%	Field goals	26-55 47%
8-31 26%	3-pointers	10-23 43%
11-14 79%	Free throws	14-18 78%
27 7 off	Rebounds	42 12 off
13	Assists	21
6	Steals	10
5	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	14
20	Fouls	16
20	Points in paint	32
3	Fast-break points	8

Players

BUCK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ruot Bijiek F	31	16	6	0	4-11	4-11
Achile Spadone G	31	4	4	0	1-9	1-8
Jayden Williams G	29	4	2	6	1-5	0-2
Pat Curtin G	28	11	2	0	4-9	1-5
Amon Dorries C	24	15	1	1	6-10	1-2
Bench
Quin Berger G	16	0	3	1	0-1	0-0
Aleksander Pachucki G	14	0	0	1	0-2	0-1
Jacob Meachem G	9	0	2	3	0-1	0-0
Patrick O'Brien F	9	0	3	0	0-2	0-1
Grgur Brcic F	5	2	1	1	1-2	0-0
Matt Lange G	2	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Kellen Welch F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Brady Muller, Brandon McCreesh, Josh Fulton

NAVY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Austin Benigni G	37	23	6	6	8-17	3-6
Jordan Pennick G	37	23	3	3	8-15	7-12
Mike Woods F	36	5	9	2	2-7	0-1
Aidan Kehoe C	33	20	12	1	8-9	0-0
Jinwoo Kim G	21	0	1	2	0-2	0-2
Bench
Cam Cole G	24	4	4	7	0-4	0-1
David Burnett G	8	1	2	0	0-1	0-1
Cam Cormany G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Sam Krist G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Cooper Jackson F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Colin Pollock, Steven McLeod, Jerry Ashley Jr., Jordan McConnell, Matt Gaffney, Luke Morgan, C.J. Kearns, Owen Gray, Tobi Raji, Davyn de Jongh, Julien King, Nyles Howard and 3 more

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NAVY -8.5	NAVY -9.0	NAVY +0.5	W NAVY covered
Total	137.5	138.0	Over 0.5	L Under
Projected score	—	BUCK 64.5 · NAVY 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NAVY -5.3	NAVY -1.0
1H total	64.7	65
1H projected score	BUCK 29.7 · NAVY 35	BUCK 32 · NAVY 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUCK LWLLW	7-8	47%	3-5	4-6
NAVY LLWWW	7-6	54%	2-3	5-4

Venue/role: BUCK away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUCK UUUUU	3-12	20%	4-11
NAVY UUUOU	4-9	31%	8-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUCK	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
NAVY	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

BUCK 4–5 NAVYNAVY leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · BUCK 4-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 9, 2024-25	NAVY 83 @ BUCK 77	BUCK -5.5	NAVY W
Feb 1, 2024-25	BUCK 85 @ NAVY 75	NAVY -3.5	BUCK W
Jan 18, 2024-25	NAVY 69 @ BUCK 73	BUCK -4.5	NAVY W
Feb 7, 2023-24	BUCK 80 @ NAVY 67	NAVY -1.5	BUCK W
Jan 24, 2023-24	NAVY 63 @ BUCK 71	BUCK -2.5	BUCK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucknell

15 games played

Straight up

4-11

27% wins

Against the spread

7-8

47% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-12

20% overs · avg −4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-1127%

W W L L L L L L L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-847%

W W L L L L W W L W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-1220%

U U U O U U U U O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsBUF	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsCOR	L 72-101	+5.5	L −23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 3	@AKR	L 77-97	+23.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	vsUMBC	L 66-73	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	@RID	W 51-38	-2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 20	@IOWA	L 39-94	+25.5	L −29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 31	@HC	L 58-65	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsLEH	W 72-65	-4.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

BUF

L 71-73

+2.5

COR

L 72-101

−23.5

AKR

L 77-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−8.5

RID

W 51-38

+10.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−29.5

L 58-65

−8.5

LEH

W 72-65

+2.5

covered 7didn’t cover 8avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

BUF

L 71-73

−2.5

COR

L 72-101

+13.5

AKR

L 77-97

+16.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−4.5

RID

W 51-38

−46.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−0.5

L 58-65

−10.5

LEH

W 72-65

−0.5

over 3under 12avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Navy

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

7-6

54% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-9

31% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W L L L W W L L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-654%

W L W W L W L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-931%

U O U U O U O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PRES	W 76-55	-3.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 7	vsYALE	L 68-97	+5.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 165
Nov 11	@PSU	L 71-80	+11.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 18	@UNC	L 61-73	+26.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 134
Nov 22	vsNJIT	W 86-70	-17.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 26	vsGWEB	W 84-51	-10.5	W +22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	@UNCW	L 57-87	+8.5	L −21.5	138.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsSELA	L 65-69	-3.5	L −7.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 3	@DSU	W 66-59	-15.5	L −8.5	132.5	U 125
Dec 7	vsAF	W 61-56	-9.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 117
Dec 19	vsCOPP	W 88-55	-20.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 31	vsBU	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	137.5	O 159
Jan 3	@HC	W 65-58	-5.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

+17.5

YALE

L 68-97

−23.5

PSU

L 71-80

+2.5

UNC

L 61-73

+14.5

NJIT

W 86-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 84-51

+22.5

UNCW

L 57-87

−21.5

SELA

L 65-69

−7.5

DSU

W 66-59

−8.5

W 61-56

−4.5

COPP

W 88-55

+12.5

W 82-77

+0.5

W 65-58

+1.5

covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

−10.5

YALE

L 68-97

+17.5

PSU

L 71-80

−4.5

UNC

L 61-73

−26.5

NJIT

W 86-70

+15.5

GWEB

W 84-51

−18.5

UNCW

L 57-87

+5.5

SELA

L 65-69

−2.5

DSU

W 66-59

−7.5

W 61-56

−16.5

COPP

W 88-55

−2.5

W 82-77

+21.5

W 65-58

−14.5

over 4under 9avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bucknell Bison at Navy Midshipmen

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Bucknell

Navy

Bucknell

Navy