Bucknell Bison at Rider Broncs: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 9, 7:00 PM ETAlumni Gymnasium (Rider) · at Rider

#299BUCKBucknell51▲ winner

Final

#347RIDRider38final

Closing lineBUCK -2.5✓ BUCK covered by 10.5

Closing total135.5Under by 46.5

Season records: Bucknell and Rider
BUCK	This season	RID
2-9	Record	0-7
5-6	ATS	2-5
3-8	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BUCK 71–70 RID · ✓ BUCK (54%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BUCK	26	25	51
RID	16	22	38

1st half: BUCK 26, RID 16 (BUCK by 10). The model had BUCK by 0.8 and a total of 65.6 (actual 42).

Team stats

BUCK		RID
20-53 38%	Field goals	16-47 34%
5-24 21%	3-pointers	3-13 23%
6-8 75%	Free throws	3-9 33%
35 6 off	Rebounds	32 6 off
10	Assists	3
9	Steals	7
2	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	15
13	Fouls	12
30	Points in paint	18
5	Fast-break points	2

Players

BUCK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Achile Spadone G	37	14	5	3	6-14	1-5
Jayden Williams G	31	9	3	2	3-8	1-4
Amon Dorries C	29	6	4	1	2-7	0-2
Grgur Brcic F	24	4	7	0	2-3	0-0
Quin Berger G	18	2	1	1	1-6	0-5
Bench
Ruot Bijiek F	23	6	4	1	2-6	1-4
Aleksander Pachucki G	19	8	4	0	3-5	2-3
Jacob Meachem G	19	2	2	2	1-4	0-1

Did not play: Pat Curtin, Kellen Welch, Patrick O'Brien, Brady Muller, Matt Lange, Josh Fulton, Brandon McCreesh

RID	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Caleb Smith G	32	6	8	0	3-6	0-0
Flash Burton G	24	3	3	1	1-9	0-1
Antwan Wilson G	20	7	2	0	2-6	2-3
Shemani Fuller F	17	2	8	0	1-3	0-1
Cole McCabe F	11	0	0	0	0-3	0-1
Bench
AB Coulibaly G	34	3	2	1	1-7	1-4
Kristupas Kepežinskas G	22	5	2	1	2-5	0-3
Davis Bynum F	13	6	4	0	3-4	0-0
Jamir McNeil G	9	4	0	0	2-3	0-0
Devean Williams G	8	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Mohamad Diallo F	7	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Daniel Helterhoff F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Maurizio D'Alessandro, Xaviel Rodriguez, Zion Cruz

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BUCK -2.5	BUCK -1.1	RID +1.4	L BUCK covered
Total	135.5	140.1	Over 4.6	L Under
Projected score	—	BUCK 70.6 · RID 69.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BUCK -0.8	BUCK -10.0
1H total	65.6	42
1H projected score	BUCK 33.2 · RID 32.4	BUCK 26 · RID 16

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUCK WWLWL	5-6	45%	2-3	1-1
RID LLLWW	2-5	29%	0-1	2-4

Venue/role: BUCK away, as favorite; RID home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUCK UUOOU	3-8	27%	2-9
RID OOUUU	2-5	29%	0-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUCK	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
RIDlast 7	0-7 0%	2-5 29%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BUCK 1–2 RIDRID leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · RID has won the last 2 meetings · BUCK 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 23, 2024-25	RID 57 @ BUCK 53	BUCK -4.5	RID W
Nov 24, 2021-22	RID 85 vs BUCK 79	BUCK +2	RID W
Nov 17, 2021-22	RID 74 @ BUCK 81	BUCK -1	BUCK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucknell

11 games played

Straight up

2-9

18% wins

Against the spread

5-6

45% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-8

27% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-918%

W W L L L L L L L L L

9 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-645%

W W L L L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-827%

U U U O U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsBUF	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsCOR	L 72-101	+5.5	L −23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 3	@AKR	L 77-97	+23.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	vsUMBC	L 66-73	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

BUF

L 71-73

+2.5

COR

L 72-101

−23.5

AKR

L 77-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−8.5

covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

BUF

L 71-73

−2.5

COR

L 72-101

+13.5

AKR

L 77-97

+16.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−4.5

over 3under 8avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rider

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UVA	L 53-87	+26.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 5	@RUTG	L 53-81	+18.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 18	@TEX	L 65-99	+30.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 164
Nov 20	@HOU	L 45-91	+40.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 25	vsCOPP	L 65-68	-8.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 133
Dec 4	@MRMK	L 66-68	+9.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	@QUIN	L 58-72	+14.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−7.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−9.5

TEX

L 65-99

−3.5

HOU

L 45-91

−5.5

COPP

L 65-68

−11.5

MRMK

L 66-68

+7.5

QUIN

L 58-72

+0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−8.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−5.5

TEX

L 65-99

+20.5

HOU

L 45-91

+1.5

COPP

L 65-68

−6.5

MRMK

L 66-68

−4.5

QUIN

L 58-72

−17.5

over 2under 5avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bucknell Bison at Rider Broncs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Bucknell

Rider

Bucknell

Rider