LJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest · Conference game
Closing line
WAKE -1.5✓ MIA covered by 5.5
WAKE -1.5✓ MIA covered by 5.5Closing total157.5Over by 0.5
 MIA | This season | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2 | Record | 10-5 |
| 8-6 | ATS | 6-9 |
| 9-5 | O/U | 8-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIA 79–78 WAKE · ✓ MIA (52%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 39 | 42 | 81 |
| WAKE | 38 | 39 | 77 |
1st half: MIA 39, WAKE 38 (MIA by 1). The model had MIA by 0.5 and a total of 73.7 (actual 77).
Team stats
| MIA | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-54 50% | Field goals | 28-54 52% |
| 4-18 22% | 3-pointers | 11-21 52% |
| 23-30 77% | Free throws | 10-14 71% |
| 37 13 off | Rebounds | 20 4 off |
| 15 | Assists | 15 |
| 6 | Steals | 10 |
| 1 | Blocks | 6 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson G | 36 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 7-10 | 1-2 |
| Tru Washington G | 31 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 31 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Malik Reneau F | 29 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 6-13 | 1-3 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 24 | 10 | 13 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Timo Malovec F | 20 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-7 |
| Dante Allen G | 16 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JJ Laboy, Jordyn Kee, Treyvon Maddox, Marcus Allen
| WAKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Colvin G | 37 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 5-8 | 3-4 |
| Juke Harris G | 36 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 9-15 | 4-8 |
| Tre'Von Spillers F | 35 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-0 |
| Nate Calmese G | 32 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 8-13 | 3-4 |
| Cooper Schwieger F | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mekhi Mason G | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Omaha Biliew F | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Sebastian Akins G | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Anson Beard Jr., Dimitrije Kovacevic, Isaac Carr, Jaylen Cross, Will Underwood, Vincent Ricchiuti, Marqus Marion, Owen Kmety
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -1.5
3 → WAKE
CloseWAKE -1.5
3 pts toward WAKE
Total
Open155.5
▲ 2
Close157.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MIA -108 · WAKE -112
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -1.5 · closed WAKE -1.5 · moved 3 toward WAKEmodel MIA -0.5
model MIA -0.5
Opened 155.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 2 upmodel 157.5 matches the line
model 157.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | WAKE -1.5 | MIA -0.6 | MIA +2.1 | W MIA covered |
| Total | 157.5 | 157.3 | Under 0.2 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | MIA 79 · WAKE 78.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MIA -0.5 | MIA -1.0 |
| 1H total | 73.7 | 77 |
| 1H projected score | MIA 37.1 · WAKE 36.6 | MIA 39 · WAKE 38 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| WAKE | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
MIA 4–2 WAKEMIA leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · WAKE has won the last 2 meetings · MIA 4-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | WAKE 88 @ MIA 78 | MIA +3.5 | WAKE W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | MIA 82 @ WAKE 86 | WAKE -4.5 | MIA W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | WAKE 72 vs MIA 74 | MIA -6.5 | WAKE W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | WAKE 87 @ MIA 96 | MIA -5.5 | MIA W |
| Feb 12, 2021-22 | MIA 76 @ WAKE 72 | WAKE -6.5 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Miami
14 games played
Straight up
12-2
86% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-5
64% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
over 9under 5avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Wake Forest
15 games played
Straight up
10-5
67% wins
Against the spread
6-9
40% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-7
53% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs AMER | W 88-74 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 7 | vs MORE | W 81-65 | -22.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 11 | vs MICH | L 84-85 | +15.5 | W +14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 16 | vs UML | W 109-75 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 20 | vs TTU | L 83-84 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs MEM | W 69-68 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs CAM | W 99-51 | -17.5 | W +30.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 28 | vs NE | W 86-73 | -17.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 2 | vs OU | L 68-86 | -4.5 | L −22.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 6 | vs WVU | W 75-66 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 14 | vs QUC | W 111-73 | -18.5 | W +19.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 17 | vs LONG | W 71-68 | -24.5 | L −21.5 | 163.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | vs VAN | L 67-98 | +5.5 | L −25.5 | 164.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 31 | @ NCSU | L 57-70 | +10.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs VT | W 81-78 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
−5.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+14.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+3.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+8.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−1.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
+30.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
−4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−22.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
+11.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+19.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−21.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
−25.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−2.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
−2.5
covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
+22.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+0.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+6.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−23.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
−9.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
+4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−5.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
−2.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+18.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−24.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
+0.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−32.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
+5.5
over 8under 7avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Miami
12-2 overall · 1-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Pitt76–69
- Wvs North Florida105–67
- Wvs FIU98–81
- Wvs UL Monroe104–79
- Wvs Southern Miss88–64
A week or more of rest.
Wake Forest
10-5 overall · 1-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Virginia Tech81–78
- L@ NC State57–70
- Lvs Vanderbilt67–98
- Wvs Longwood71–68
- Wvs Queens University Royals111–73
4 days since their last game.