Xavier Musketeers at Marquette Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Marquette · Conference game

#49XAVXavier65final

Final

#42MARQMarquette66▲ winner

Closing lineMARQ -5.5✓ XAV covered by 4.5

Closing total157.5Under by 26.5

Season records: Xavier and Marquette
XAV	This season	MARQ
9-6	Record	5-10
6-9	ATS	4-11
9-6	O/U	7-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: XAV 77–81 MARQ · ✓ MARQ (62%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
XAV	27	38	65
MARQ	37	29	66

1st half: XAV 27, MARQ 37 (MARQ by 10). The model had MARQ by 2.0 and a total of 73.7 (actual 64).

Team stats

XAV		MARQ
22-59 37%	Field goals	26-65 40%
11-24 46%	3-pointers	5-22 23%
10-14 71%	Free throws	9-18 50%
34 10 off	Rebounds	47 19 off
11	Assists	16
12	Steals	13
6	Blocks	3
16	Turnovers	15
18	Fouls	10
14	Points in paint	38
17	Fast-break points	8

Players

XAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Malik Messina-Moore G	37	22	3	3	7-13	4-6
Tre Carroll F	34	12	6	3	6-13	0-3
Filip Borovicanin F	29	9	7	1	3-9	2-3
Roddie Anderson G	25	10	3	1	2-9	1-3
Jovan Milicevic F	17	6	4	1	2-9	2-6
Bench
All Wright G	19	3	1	1	1-1	1-1
Pape N'Diaye F	19	3	1	0	1-1	1-1
Anthony Robinson F	10	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Isaiah Walker G	10	0	1	1	0-3	0-1

Did not play: Henry Thole, Kason Westphal, Gabriel Pozzato, Luke Naser, Ian Sabourin, Mier Panoam, Michael Wolf

MARQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chase Ross G	38	12	9	3	5-14	0-3
Royce Parham F	36	14	8	1	5-12	0-4
Adrien Stevens G	32	9	0	2	3-8	3-6
Ben Gold F	32	10	7	0	4-10	0-3
Nigel James Jr. G	21	10	4	6	5-11	0-2
Bench
Tre Norman G	13	1	3	3	0-0	0-0
Michael Phillips II SF	9	0	5	1	0-2	0-1
Damarius Owens SF	8	6	3	0	2-4	2-3
Caedin Hamilton F	6	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Joshua Clark F	5	2	2	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Nash Walker, Braeden Brenn, Sheek Pearson, Ian Miletic, Casey O'Malley, Sean Jones, Jonah Lucas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MARQ -5.5	MARQ -3.5	XAV +2.0	W XAV covered
Total	157.5	157.4	Under 0.1	W Under
Projected score	—	XAV 77 · MARQ 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MARQ -2.0	MARQ -10.0
1H total	73.7	64
1H projected score	XAV 35.9 · MARQ 37.8	XAV 27 · MARQ 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
XAV LLWLL	6-9	40%	1-2	4-3
MARQ LLLLW	4-11	27%	2-7	2-7

Venue/role: XAV away, as underdog; MARQ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
XAV UOOOO	9-6	60%	9-6
MARQ UUUOU	7-8	47%	5-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
XAV	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
MARQ	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

XAV 3–7 MARQMARQ leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · XAV 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 13, 2024-25	MARQ 89 vs XAV 87	XAV +2.5	XAV W
Jan 18, 2024-25	XAV 59 @ MARQ 57	MARQ -9.5	XAV W
Dec 21, 2024-25	MARQ 72 @ XAV 70	XAV +4.5	XAV W
Mar 9, 2023-24	MARQ 86 @ XAV 80	XAV +3.5	MARQ W
Feb 25, 2023-24	XAV 64 @ MARQ 88	MARQ -11.5	MARQ W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Xavier

15 games played

Straight up

9-6

60% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-6

60% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-660%

W W L L W L W W W W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-940%

L L L L W W W W L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-660%

U U U U O U O O O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRST	W 66-62	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 6	vsLEM	W 74-69	-24.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 10	vsSCU	L 68-87	-3.5	L −22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 14	@IOWA	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsODU	W 99-69	-10.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsUGA	L 77-78	+10.5	W +9.5	165.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsWVU	W 78-68	+5.5	W +15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsAMCC	W 88-67	-13.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 155
Dec 1	vsSFPA	W 96-74	-27.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 5	vsCIN	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 12	vsMOST	W 75-57	-18.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 132
Dec 17	vsCREI	L 57-98	-2.5	L −43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	@GTWN	W 80-77	+4.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157
Dec 31	vsCONN	L 67-90	+11.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 157
Jan 3	@DEP	L 77-86	+2.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−8.5

LEM

W 74-69

−19.5

SCU

L 68-87

−22.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−3.5

ODU

W 99-69

+19.5

UGA

L 77-78

+9.5

WVU

W 78-68

+15.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+7.5

SFPA

W 96-74

−5.5

CIN

W 79-74

+6.5

MOST

W 75-57

−0.5

CREI

L 57-98

−43.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

−11.5

DEP

L 77-86

−6.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−11.5

LEM

W 74-69

−13.5

SCU

L 68-87

−0.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−0.5

ODU

W 99-69

+17.5

UGA

L 77-78

−10.5

WVU

W 78-68

+5.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+8.5

SFPA

W 96-74

+17.5

CIN

W 79-74

+5.5

MOST

W 75-57

−19.5

CREI

L 57-98

+3.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

+12.5

DEP

L 77-86

+13.5

over 9under 6avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marquette

15 games played

Straight up

5-10

33% wins

Against the spread

4-11

27% covers · avg −7.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-1033%

W W L W L L W L W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-1127%

W L L W L L L W L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-847%

U O O U O U O U O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUALB	W 80-53	-24.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 5	vsSOU	W 100-82	-24.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 9	vsIU	L 77-100	+3.5	L −19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsLR	W 89-49	-21.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMD	L 82-89	-8.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsDAY	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsCMU	W 85-71	-25.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsOU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsVAL	W 75-72	-17.5	L −14.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 6	@WIS	L 76-96	+11.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@PUR	L 59-79	+16.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 138
Dec 17	vsGTWN	L 69-78	-6.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 20	@CREI	L 63-84	+6.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 30	vsHALL	L 73-79	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 4	@CONN	L 57-73	+17.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

+2.5

SOU

W 100-82

−6.5

L 77-100

−19.5

W 89-49

+18.5

L 82-89

−15.5

DAY

L 71-77

−12.5

CMU

W 85-71

−11.5

L 74-75

+0.5

VAL

W 75-72

−14.5

WIS

L 76-96

−8.5

PUR

L 59-79

−3.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−15.5

CREI

L 63-84

−14.5

HALL

L 73-79

−7.5

CONN

L 57-73

+1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 11avg −7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

−16.5

SOU

W 100-82

+26.5

L 77-100

+20.5

W 89-49

−17.5

L 82-89

+24.5

DAY

L 71-77

−3.5

CMU

W 85-71

+3.5

L 74-75

−13.5

VAL

W 75-72

+0.5

WIS

L 76-96

+11.5

PUR

L 59-79

−16.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−2.5

CREI

L 63-84

−4.5

HALL

L 73-79

+6.5

CONN

L 57-73

−14.5

over 7under 8avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Xavier Musketeers at Marquette Golden Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Xavier

Marquette

Xavier

Marquette