Xavier Musketeers at DePaul Blue Demons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 2:00 PM ETWintrust Arena · at DePaul · Conference game

#49XAVXavier77final

Final

#66DEPDePaul86▲ winner

Closing lineDEP -2.5✓ DEP covered by 6.5

Closing total149.5Over by 13.5

Season records: Xavier and DePaul
XAV	This season	DEP
9-5	Record	8-6
6-8	ATS	9-5
8-6	O/U	4-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: XAV 73–75 DEP · ✓ DEP (57%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
XAV	37	40	77
DEP	40	46	86

1st half: XAV 37, DEP 40 (DEP by 3). The model had DEP by 1.1 and a total of 69.5 (actual 77).

Team stats

XAV		DEP
28-69 41%	Field goals	26-52 50%
11-33 33%	3-pointers	9-24 38%
10-14 71%	Free throws	25-31 81%
34 15 off	Rebounds	35 8 off
19	Assists	17
7	Steals	3
2	Blocks	4
8	Turnovers	10
21	Fouls	14
30	Points in paint	28
6	Fast-break points	11

Players

XAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Filip Borovicanin F	37	10	10	3	4-10	2-4
Malik Messina-Moore G	35	14	1	3	5-12	2-6
Tre Carroll F	34	17	7	4	7-16	1-8
Roddie Anderson G	32	15	2	2	5-16	2-6
Jovan Milicevic F	10	5	3	2	2-4	1-3
Bench
Isaiah Walker G	19	8	3	4	2-3	2-3
Pape N'Diaye F	19	8	5	0	3-5	1-1
All Wright G	14	0	0	1	0-3	0-2

Did not play: Kason Westphal, Gabriel Pozzato, Luke Naser, Henry Thole, Mier Panoam, Anthony Robinson, Ian Sabourin, Michael Wolf

DEP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
RJ Smith G	38	10	6	5	2-4	2-4
Layden Blocker G	35	18	1	4	5-10	3-5
CJ Gunn G	33	22	6	1	8-15	3-8
NJ Benson F	31	10	7	3	3-7	0-0
Kaleb Banks F	23	11	7	1	2-6	1-5
Bench
Brandon Maclin G	28	13	5	2	5-9	0-2
Fabian Flores C	9	2	0	1	1-1	0-0
Theo Pierre-Justin F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jonas Johnson, Isaiah Medina, Kruz McClure, Nate Kasher, Amsal Delalic, Ilija Milijasevic, Jeremy Lorenz, Khaman Maker

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DEP -2.5	DEP -2.0	XAV +0.5	L DEP covered
Total	149.5	148.3	Under 1.2	L Over
Projected score	—	XAV 73.1 · DEP 75.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DEP -1.1	DEP -3.0
1H total	69.5	77
1H projected score	XAV 34.2 · DEP 35.3	XAV 37 · DEP 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
XAV WLLWL	6-8	43%	1-1	4-2
DEP WWWLW	9-5	64%	5-4	5-3

Venue/role: XAV away, as underdog; DEP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
XAV OUOOO	8-6	57%	9-5
DEP UUUUU	4-10	29%	8-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
XAV	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
DEP	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

XAV 7–2 DEPXAV leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · XAV has won the last 6 meetings · XAV 5-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 15, 2024-25	DEP 68 @ XAV 85	XAV -12.5	XAV W
Jan 11, 2024-25	XAV 77 @ DEP 63	DEP +4.5	XAV W
Feb 28, 2023-24	DEP 58 @ XAV 91	XAV -19.5	XAV W
Feb 3, 2023-24	XAV 93 @ DEP 68	DEP +13.5	XAV W
Mar 9, 2022-23	DEP 84 vs XAV 89	XAV -12.5	DEP W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Xavier

14 games played

Straight up

9-5

64% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-6

57% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-564%

W W L L W L W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-843%

L L L L W W W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-657%

U U U U O U O O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRST	W 66-62	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 6	vsLEM	W 74-69	-24.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 10	vsSCU	L 68-87	-3.5	L −22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 14	@IOWA	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsODU	W 99-69	-10.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsUGA	L 77-78	+10.5	W +9.5	165.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsWVU	W 78-68	+5.5	W +15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsAMCC	W 88-67	-13.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 155
Dec 1	vsSFPA	W 96-74	-27.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 5	vsCIN	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 12	vsMOST	W 75-57	-18.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 132
Dec 17	vsCREI	L 57-98	-2.5	L −43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	@GTWN	W 80-77	+4.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157
Dec 31	vsCONN	L 67-90	+11.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−8.5

LEM

W 74-69

−19.5

SCU

L 68-87

−22.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−3.5

ODU

W 99-69

+19.5

UGA

L 77-78

+9.5

WVU

W 78-68

+15.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+7.5

SFPA

W 96-74

−5.5

CIN

W 79-74

+6.5

MOST

W 75-57

−0.5

CREI

L 57-98

−43.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

−11.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−11.5

LEM

W 74-69

−13.5

SCU

L 68-87

−0.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−0.5

ODU

W 99-69

+17.5

UGA

L 77-78

−10.5

WVU

W 78-68

+5.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+8.5

SFPA

W 96-74

+17.5

CIN

W 79-74

+5.5

MOST

W 75-57

−19.5

CREI

L 57-98

+3.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

+12.5

over 8under 6avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

DePaul

14 games played

Straight up

8-6

57% wins

Against the spread

9-5

64% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-10

29% overs · avg −4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-657%

W W L L W W W L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-564%

W L L W W W W L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-1029%

O U U O U O U O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHST	W 92-62	-24.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsSTO	W 72-64	-22.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	vsBUF	L 53-66	-18.5	L −31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 14	vsNU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 18	vsGWEB	W 93-62	-21.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsDETM	W 95-75	-19.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 170
Nov 28	vsGT	W 75-61	-1.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsLSU	L 63-96	+5.5	L −27.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsUAPB	W 76-72	-23.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 148
Dec 9	vsMORG	W 92-49	-21.5	W +21.5	150.5	U 141
Dec 13	@WICH	W 61-58	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 16	@SJU	L 66-79	+19.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 21	vsCONN	L 54-72	+12.5	L −5.5	133.5	U 126
Dec 31	@VILL	L 66-71	+12.5	W +7.5	139.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+5.5

STO

W 72-64

−14.5

BUF

L 53-66

−31.5

L 79-81

+3.5

GWEB

W 93-62

+9.5

DETM

W 95-75

+0.5

W 75-61

+12.5

LSU

L 63-96

−27.5

UAPB

W 76-72

−19.5

MORG

W 92-49

+21.5

WICH

W 61-58

+10.5

SJU

L 66-79

+6.5

CONN

L 54-72

−5.5

VILL

L 66-71

+7.5

covered 9didn’t cover 5avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+10.5

STO

W 72-64

−11.5

BUF

L 53-66

−34.5

L 79-81

+14.5

GWEB

W 93-62

−0.5

DETM

W 95-75

+18.5

W 75-61

−11.5

LSU

L 63-96

+6.5

UAPB

W 76-72

−8.5

MORG

W 92-49

−9.5

WICH

W 61-58

−26.5

SJU

L 66-79

−2.5

CONN

L 54-72

−7.5

VILL

L 66-71

−2.5

over 4under 10avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Xavier @ DePaul

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Xavier

DePaul

Xavier

DePaul