Creighton Bluejays at Xavier Musketeers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 17, 6:30 PM ETCintas Center · at Xavier · Conference game

#37CREICreighton98▲ winner

Final

#49XAVXavier57final

Closing lineXAV -2.5✓ CREI covered by 43.5

Closing total151.5Over by 3.5

Season records: Creighton and Xavier
CREI	This season	XAV
5-5	Record	8-3
3-7	ATS	5-6
2-8	O/U	5-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CREI 75–75 XAV · ✓ CREI (52%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CREI	49	49	98
XAV	22	35	57

1st half: CREI 49, XAV 22 (CREI by 27). The model had CREI by 0.5 and a total of 70.3 (actual 71).

Team stats

CREI		XAV
38-63 60%	Field goals	24-66 36%
16-33 48%	3-pointers	6-24 25%
6-10 60%	Free throws	3-6 50%
42 6 off	Rebounds	28 9 off
31	Assists	16
11	Steals	5
4	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	14
12	Fouls	14
42	Points in paint	28
21	Fast-break points	11

Players

CREI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Dix G	29	9	5	3	3-6	3-4
Isaac Traudt F	28	8	3	0	3-6	1-4
Austin Swartz G	23	27	7	4	10-17	7-13
Jasen Green F	22	11	6	3	5-6	0-0
Ty Davis G	20	0	2	4	0-3	0-2
Bench
Nik Graves G	20	12	1	5	4-6	3-5
Blake Harper G	19	11	5	5	3-5	2-2
Fedor Zugic G	17	6	1	1	3-6	0-3
Owen Freeman F	14	8	5	3	4-5	0-0
Kerem Konan F	4	4	1	2	2-2	0-0
Shane Thomas G	4	2	1	1	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Hudson Greer, Aleksa Dimitrijevic, Josh Townley-Thomas, Jackson McAndrew, Liam McChesney

XAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Malik Messina-Moore G	34	14	5	3	5-12	2-4
Filip Borovicanin F	29	5	4	6	2-6	1-2
All Wright G	22	4	4	1	2-6	0-2
Jovan Milicevic F	18	0	2	0	0-8	0-2
Tre Carroll F	17	7	2	2	3-7	0-3
Bench
Roddie Anderson G	24	12	2	2	6-12	0-4
Isaiah Walker G	21	3	4	0	1-7	1-4
Pape N'Diaye F	18	10	2	2	4-5	2-3
Mier Panoam G	12	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Anthony Robinson F	5	0	2	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Kason Westphal, Gabriel Pozzato, Luke Naser, Henry Thole, Ian Sabourin, Michael Wolf

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	XAV -2.5	CREI -0.5	CREI +3.0	W CREI covered
Total	151.5	150.0	Under 1.5	L Over
Projected score	—	CREI 75.3 · XAV 74.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CREI -0.5	CREI -27.0
1H total	70.3	71
1H projected score	CREI 35.4 · XAV 34.9	CREI 49 · XAV 22

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CREI LWWLL	3-7	30%	0-2	0-4
XAV WWLWL	5-6	45%	3-5	2-5

Venue/role: CREI away, as underdog; XAV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CREI UUOUU	2-8	20%	5-5
XAV OOOOU	5-6	45%	8-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CREI	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
XAV	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

CREI 4–5 XAVXAV leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · CREI 4-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 1, 2024-25	CREI 61 @ XAV 83	XAV -1.5	XAV W
Jan 29, 2024-25	XAV 77 @ CREI 86	CREI -7.5	CREI W
Feb 10, 2023-24	CREI 78 @ XAV 71	XAV +1.5	CREI W
Jan 23, 2023-24	XAV 78 @ CREI 85	CREI -7.5	XAV W
Mar 10, 2022-23	CREI 60 vs XAV 82	XAV +3.5	XAV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Creighton

10 games played

Straight up

5-5

50% wins

Against the spread

3-7

30% covers · avg −6.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-8

20% overs · avg −6.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-550%

W L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-730%

L L W L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-820%

U U U U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	vsUMES	W 84-45	-33.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 19	vsUND	W 75-60	-29.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 24	vsBAY	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsISU	L 60-78	+9.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 138
Nov 27	vsORE	W 76-66	-2.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsNICH	W 96-76	-18.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 172
Dec 7	@NEB	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsKSU	L 76-83	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

UMES

W 84-45

+5.5

UND

W 75-60

−14.5

BAY

L 74-81

−3.5

ISU

L 60-78

−8.5

ORE

W 76-66

+7.5

NICH

W 96-76

+1.5

NEB

L 50-71

−15.5

KSU

L 76-83

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 7avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

UMES

W 84-45

−6.5

UND

W 75-60

−20.5

BAY

L 74-81

+0.5

ISU

L 60-78

−14.5

ORE

W 76-66

−8.5

NICH

W 96-76

+28.5

NEB

L 50-71

−34.5

KSU

L 76-83

−0.5

over 2under 8avg −6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Xavier

11 games played

Straight up

8-3

73% wins

Against the spread

5-6

45% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-6

45% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-373%

W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-645%

L L L L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-645%

U U U U O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRST	W 66-62	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 6	vsLEM	W 74-69	-24.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 10	vsSCU	L 68-87	-3.5	L −22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 14	@IOWA	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsODU	W 99-69	-10.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsUGA	L 77-78	+10.5	W +9.5	165.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsWVU	W 78-68	+5.5	W +15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsAMCC	W 88-67	-13.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 155
Dec 1	vsSFPA	W 96-74	-27.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 5	vsCIN	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 12	vsMOST	W 75-57	-18.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−8.5

LEM

W 74-69

−19.5

SCU

L 68-87

−22.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−3.5

ODU

W 99-69

+19.5

UGA

L 77-78

+9.5

WVU

W 78-68

+15.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+7.5

SFPA

W 96-74

−5.5

CIN

W 79-74

+6.5

MOST

W 75-57

−0.5

covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−11.5

LEM

W 74-69

−13.5

SCU

L 68-87

−0.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−0.5

ODU

W 99-69

+17.5

UGA

L 77-78

−10.5

WVU

W 78-68

+5.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+8.5

SFPA

W 96-74

+17.5

CIN

W 79-74

+5.5

MOST

W 75-57

−19.5

over 5under 6avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Creighton Bluejays at Xavier Musketeers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Creighton

Xavier

Creighton

Xavier