Missouri State Bears at Xavier Musketeers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 12, 7:00 PM ETCintas Center · at Xavier

Final

#49XAVXavier75▲ winner

Closing lineXAV -18.5✓ MOST covered by 0.5

Closing total151.5Under by 19.5

Season records: Missouri St and Xavier
MOST	This season	XAV
1-4	Record	7-3
1-4	ATS	5-5
2-3	O/U	5-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MOST 66–84 XAV · ✓ XAV (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MOST	28	29	57
XAV	31	44	75

1st half: MOST 28, XAV 31 (XAV by 3). The model had XAV by 10.7 and a total of 69.8 (actual 59).

Team stats

MOST		XAV
21-53 40%	Field goals	28-65 43%
3-14 21%	3-pointers	12-30 40%
12-15 80%	Free throws	7-12 58%
36 10 off	Rebounds	37 13 off
15	Assists	23
4	Steals	8
3	Blocks	8
13	Turnovers	6
13	Fouls	15
36	Points in paint	32
6	Fast-break points	15

Players

MOST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Keith Palek III F	35	23	11	5	9-22	1-6
Kobi Williams G	35	9	3	0	3-8	1-2
Zaxton King G	31	3	3	3	0-4	0-2
Trey Williams Jr. G	26	3	6	6	1-6	1-3
Cameron Boone F	14	3	1	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Darrion Sutton F	25	12	5	1	6-10	0-0
Melakih Cunningham G	18	2	3	0	1-2	0-1
Logan Epes G	16	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Ryder Cheesman, Collin Clark, Antwan Burnett, Tyrique Brooks, Michael Osei-Bonsu, Amar Kuljuhovic

XAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Filip Borovicanin F	36	13	11	8	5-9	3-5
Tre Carroll F	33	13	7	4	4-11	3-5
Malik Messina-Moore G	32	7	1	3	2-7	1-4
Jovan Milicevic F	27	17	7	2	6-11	2-4
All Wright G	21	10	0	3	4-7	2-3
Bench
Roddie Anderson G	17	6	4	2	3-11	0-4
Isaiah Walker G	17	6	2	0	3-7	0-3
Pape N'Diaye F	13	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Mier Panoam G	3	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Ian Sabourin F	1	3	1	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Kason Westphal, Gabriel Pozzato, Luke Naser, Henry Thole, Anthony Robinson, Michael Wolf

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	XAV -18.5	XAV -17.9	MOST +0.6	W MOST covered
Total	151.5	149.2	Under 2.3	W Under
Projected score	—	MOST 65.6 · XAV 83.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	XAV -10.7	XAV -3.0
1H total	69.8	59
1H projected score	MOST 29.6 · XAV 40.3	MOST 28 · XAV 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MOST LLWLL	1-4	20%	0-2	0-2
XAV WWWLW	5-5	50%	3-4	2-4

Venue/role: MOST away, as underdog; XAV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST OUUUO	2-3	40%	1-4
XAV UOOOO	5-5	50%	7-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOSTlast 5	1-4 20%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%
XAV	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Missouri St

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −9.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsARST	L 85-86	-1.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@UTA	L 49-67	+3.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 116
Nov 22	vsRGV	W 74-67	-3.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsLIU	L 61-75	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 136
Dec 6	@TLSA	L 74-98	+7.5	L −16.5	142.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

−2.5

UTA

L 49-67

−14.5

RGV

W 74-67

+3.5

LIU

L 61-75

−18.5

TLSA

L 74-98

−16.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −9.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

+18.5

UTA

L 49-67

−27.5

RGV

W 74-67

−8.5

LIU

L 61-75

−9.5

TLSA

L 74-98

+29.5

over 2under 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Xavier

10 games played

Straight up

7-3

70% wins

Against the spread

5-5

50% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-5

50% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-370%

W W L L W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-550%

L L L L W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-550%

U U U U O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRST	W 66-62	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 6	vsLEM	W 74-69	-24.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 10	vsSCU	L 68-87	-3.5	L −22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 14	@IOWA	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsODU	W 99-69	-10.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsUGA	L 77-78	+10.5	W +9.5	165.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsWVU	W 78-68	+5.5	W +15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsAMCC	W 88-67	-13.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 155
Dec 1	vsSFPA	W 96-74	-27.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 5	vsCIN	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−8.5

LEM

W 74-69

−19.5

SCU

L 68-87

−22.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−3.5

ODU

W 99-69

+19.5

UGA

L 77-78

+9.5

WVU

W 78-68

+15.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+7.5

SFPA

W 96-74

−5.5

CIN

W 79-74

+6.5

covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−11.5

LEM

W 74-69

−13.5

SCU

L 68-87

−0.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−0.5

ODU

W 99-69

+17.5

UGA

L 77-78

−10.5

WVU

W 78-68

+5.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+8.5

SFPA

W 96-74

+17.5

CIN

W 79-74

+5.5

over 5under 5avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Missouri State Bears at Xavier Musketeers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Missouri St

Xavier

Missouri St

Xavier