Morgan State Bears at DePaul Blue Demons: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 9, 8:00 PM ETWintrust Arena · at DePaul

#345MORGMorgan St49final

Final

#66DEPDePaul92▲ winner

Closing lineDEP -21.5✓ DEP covered by 21.5

Closing total150.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Morgan St and DePaul
MORG	This season	DEP
0-7	Record	6-3
4-3	ATS	5-4
3-4	O/U	4-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MORG 67–88 DEP · ✓ DEP (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MORG	15	34	49
DEP	46	46	92

1st half: MORG 15, DEP 46 (DEP by 31). The model had DEP by 12.4 and a total of 72.2 (actual 61).

Team stats

MORG		DEP
11-55 20%	Field goals	26-46 57%
3-16 19%	3-pointers	11-22 50%
24-31 77%	Free throws	29-37 78%
39 21 off	Rebounds	32 6 off
8	Assists	21
5	Steals	11
2	Blocks	6
20	Turnovers	9
24	Fouls	21
10	Points in paint	30
6	Fast-break points	16

Players

MORG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eugene Alvin F	28	3	7	0	1-7	1-4
Christian Meeks F	27	6	6	1	2-3	0-0
Elijah Davis G	26	6	0	4	0-6	0-0
Alfred Worrell Jr. G	17	2	3	0	0-10	0-4
Dallas James C	12	2	2	0	0-3	0-0
Bench
Rob Lawson G	31	13	2	2	5-16	0-4
David Bumpass G	19	6	4	0	1-3	1-1
Marland Harris F	15	3	2	0	0-1	0-0
Matar Wade F	11	2	1	1	0-1	0-1
Christian Oliver C	9	6	4	0	2-5	1-2
Breon Barnett G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Walter Peggs Jr., Manok Lual, Jayden Socka, Trent Edwards

DEP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
RJ Smith G	25	6	1	3	2-5	2-4
Kruz McClure G	24	5	1	4	2-4	1-3
Layden Blocker G	23	14	2	2	3-6	1-2
Theo Pierre-Justin F	21	8	2	2	1-3	0-2
NJ Benson F	13	6	3	1	2-2	0-0
Bench
Kaleb Banks F	26	18	4	1	4-6	2-3
CJ Gunn G	19	15	4	1	5-8	3-3
Ilija Milijasevic G	17	6	3	3	2-5	2-5
Khaman Maker C	15	6	4	0	3-4	0-0
Jeremy Lorenz F	13	8	3	3	2-2	0-0
Nate Kasher G	4	0	1	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Fabian Flores, Jonas Johnson, Isaiah Medina, Brandon Maclin, Amsal Delalic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DEP -21.5	DEP -20.8	MORG +0.7	L DEP covered
Total	150.5	154.2	Over 3.7	L Under
Projected score	—	MORG 66.7 · DEP 87.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DEP -12.4	DEP -31.0
1H total	72.2	61
1H projected score	MORG 29.9 · DEP 42.3	MORG 15 · DEP 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MORG LLLWW	4-3	57%	1-2	4-3
DEP WWWLL	5-4	56%	4-3	4-3

Venue/role: MORG away, as underdog; DEP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MORG OUUUO	3-4	43%	0-7
DEP UOUOU	4-5	44%	6-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MORGlast 7	0-7 0%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%
DEPlast 9	6-3 67%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Morgan St

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GTWN	L 70-87	+27.5	W +10.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 11	vsUMBC	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 15	@MERC	L 72-86	+6.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsNCAT	L 73-79	+2.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 152
Nov 21	@ODU	L 56-88	+11.5	L −20.5	156.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsDREX	L 66-71	+5.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsLONG	L 80-84	+5.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GTWN

L 70-87

+10.5

UMBC

L 79-81

+2.5

MERC

L 72-86

−7.5

NCAT

L 73-79

−3.5

ODU

L 56-88

−20.5

DREX

L 66-71

+0.5

LONG

L 80-84

+1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GTWN

L 70-87

+2.5

UMBC

L 79-81

−2.5

MERC

L 72-86

+11.5

NCAT

L 73-79

−9.5

ODU

L 56-88

−12.5

DREX

L 66-71

−6.5

LONG

L 80-84

+9.5

over 3under 4avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

DePaul

9 games played

Straight up

6-3

67% wins

Against the spread

5-4

56% covers · avg −6.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-5

44% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-367%

W W L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-456%

W L L W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-544%

O U U O U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHST	W 92-62	-24.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsSTO	W 72-64	-22.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	vsBUF	L 53-66	-18.5	L −31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 14	vsNU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 18	vsGWEB	W 93-62	-21.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsDETM	W 95-75	-19.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 170
Nov 28	vsGT	W 75-61	-1.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsLSU	L 63-96	+5.5	L −27.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsUAPB	W 76-72	-23.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+5.5

STO

W 72-64

−14.5

BUF

L 53-66

−31.5

L 79-81

+3.5

GWEB

W 93-62

+9.5

DETM

W 95-75

+0.5

W 75-61

+12.5

LSU

L 63-96

−27.5

UAPB

W 76-72

−19.5

covered 5didn’t cover 4avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+10.5

STO

W 72-64

−11.5

BUF

L 53-66

−34.5

L 79-81

+14.5

GWEB

W 93-62

−0.5

DETM

W 95-75

+18.5

W 75-61

−11.5

LSU

L 63-96

+6.5

UAPB

W 76-72

−8.5

over 4under 5avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Morgan St @ DePaul

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Morgan St

DePaul

Morgan St

DePaul