Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 31, 12:00 PM ETLenovo Center · at NC State · Conference game

Final

#48NCSUNC State70▲ winner

Closing lineNCSU -10.5✓ NCSU covered by 2.5

Closing total159.5Under by 32.5

Season records: Wake Forest and NC State
WAKE	This season	NCSU
9-4	Record	9-4
6-7	ATS	7-6
7-6	O/U	7-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WAKE 77–84 NCSU · ✓ NCSU (73%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WAKE	32	25	57
NCSU	36	34	70

1st half: WAKE 32, NCSU 36 (NCSU by 4). The model had NCSU by 4.1 and a total of 75.1 (actual 68).

Team stats

WAKE		NCSU
20-59 34%	Field goals	25-59 42%
8-31 26%	3-pointers	6-21 29%
9-13 69%	Free throws	14-17 82%
35 10 off	Rebounds	40 10 off
13	Assists	16
9	Steals	10
4	Blocks	3
16	Turnovers	15
19	Fouls	17
24	Points in paint	38
10	Fast-break points	9

Players

WAKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tre'Von Spillers F	37	4	8	2	2-8	0-1
Juke Harris G	36	17	6	3	5-16	2-10
Nate Calmese G	33	0	2	3	0-5	0-3
Omaha Biliew F	28	18	10	0	6-10	3-6
Myles Colvin G	22	13	2	2	5-11	2-6
Bench
Mekhi Mason G	21	3	2	2	1-5	1-5
Cooper Schwieger F	12	2	4	0	1-4	0-0
Sebastian Akins G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jaylen Cross G	5	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dimitrije Kovacevic, Anson Beard Jr., Isaac Carr, Will Underwood, Vincent Ricchiuti, Marqus Marion, Owen Kmety

NCSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ven-Allen Lubin F	32	12	11	2	6-10	0-0
Quadir Copeland G	31	14	2	8	5-11	0-0
Paul McNeil Jr. G	26	13	2	0	3-6	2-5
Darrion Williams F	21	8	6	4	3-12	2-6
Alyn Breed G	17	4	4	0	2-5	0-3
Bench
Tre Holloman G	28	4	1	2	1-4	1-3
Musa Sagnia C	26	6	8	0	2-4	0-0
Matt Able G	18	9	2	0	3-7	1-4
Scottie Ebube C	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jayme Kontuniemi, Jerry Deng, Colt Langdon, Terrance Arceneaux, Jordan Snell, Zymicah Wilkins

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NCSU -10.5	NCSU -7.1	WAKE +3.4	L NCSU covered
Total	159.5	160.5	Over 1.0	L Under
Projected score	—	WAKE 76.7 · NCSU 83.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NCSU -4.1	NCSU -4.0
1H total	75.1	68
1H projected score	WAKE 35.5 · NCSU 39.6	WAKE 32 · NCSU 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LWWLL	6-7	46%	—	3-1
NCSU LWLWW	7-6	54%	5-3	7-5

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UUOUO	7-6	54%	9-4
NCSU UUOOU	7-6	54%	9-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NCSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

WAKE 4–4 NCSUSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · WAKE 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2024-25	WAKE 73 @ NCSU 85	NCSU +4.5	NCSU W
Jan 4, 2024-25	NCSU 59 @ WAKE 77	WAKE -5.5	WAKE W
Feb 10, 2023-24	NCSU 79 @ WAKE 83	WAKE -8.5	NCSU W
Jan 16, 2023-24	WAKE 76 @ NCSU 83	NCSU -1.5	NCSU W
Feb 22, 2022-23	WAKE 74 @ NCSU 90	NCSU -4.5	NCSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wake Forest

13 games played

Straight up

9-4

69% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg −0 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-469%

W W L W L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-746%

L L W W W L W L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-654%

O U O O O U U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAMER	W 88-74	-19.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMORE	W 81-65	-22.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 11	vsMICH	L 84-85	+15.5	W +14.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsUML	W 109-75	-30.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 184
Nov 20	vsTTU	L 83-84	+9.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsMEM	W 69-68	-2.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsCAM	W 99-51	-17.5	W +30.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 28	vsNE	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsOU	L 68-86	-4.5	L −22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsWVU	W 75-66	+2.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 141
Dec 14	vsQUC	W 111-73	-18.5	W +19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 17	vsLONG	W 71-68	-24.5	L −21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsVAN	L 67-98	+5.5	L −25.5	164.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

−5.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+14.5

UML

W 109-75

+3.5

TTU

L 83-84

+8.5

MEM

W 69-68

−1.5

CAM

W 99-51

+30.5

W 86-73

−4.5

L 68-86

−22.5

WVU

W 75-66

+11.5

QUC

W 111-73

+19.5

LONG

W 71-68

−21.5

VAN

L 67-98

−25.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

+22.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+0.5

UML

W 109-75

+18.5

TTU

L 83-84

+6.5

MEM

W 69-68

−23.5

CAM

W 99-51

−9.5

W 86-73

+4.5

L 68-86

−5.5

WVU

W 75-66

−2.5

QUC

W 111-73

+18.5

LONG

W 71-68

−24.5

VAN

L 67-98

+0.5

over 7under 6avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

NC State

13 games played

Straight up

9-4

69% wins

Against the spread

7-6

54% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +6.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-469%

W W W W L W L L W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-654%

W W W L L W L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-654%

O O O U O U O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNCCU	W 114-66	-31.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	vsUAB	W 94-70	-19.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 164
Nov 12	vsUNCG	W 110-64	-30.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsVCU	W 85-79	-11.5	L −5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 24	vsHALL	L 74-85	-7.5	L −18.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsBOIS	W 81-70	-6.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTEX	L 97-102	-1.5	L −6.5	161.5	O 199
Dec 3	@AUB	L 73-83	+5.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 156
Dec 6	vsUNCA	W 75-63	-28.5	L −16.5	155.5	U 138
Dec 10	vsLIB	W 85-45	-12.5	W +27.5	149.5	U 130
Dec 13	vsKU	L 76-77	-1.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 153
Dec 17	vsTXSO	W 108-72	-34.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 180
Dec 21	vsMISS	W 76-62	-7.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+16.5

UAB

W 94-70

+4.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+15.5

VCU

W 85-79

−5.5

HALL

L 74-85

−18.5

BOIS

W 81-70

+4.5

TEX

L 97-102

−6.5

AUB

L 73-83

−4.5

UNCA

W 75-63

−16.5

LIB

W 85-45

+27.5

L 76-77

−2.5

TXSO

W 108-72

+1.5

MISS

W 76-62

+6.5

covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+34.5

UAB

W 94-70

+1.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+20.5

VCU

W 85-79

−0.5

HALL

L 74-85

+15.5

BOIS

W 81-70

−1.5

TEX

L 97-102

+37.5

AUB

L 73-83

−6.5

UNCA

W 75-63

−17.5

LIB

W 85-45

−19.5

L 76-77

+4.5

TXSO

W 108-72

+27.5

MISS

W 76-62

−10.5

over 7under 6avg +6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wake Forest

NC State

Wake Forest

NC State