Lenovo Center · at NC State
Closing line
NCSU -12.5✓ NCSU covered by 27.5
NCSU -12.5✓ NCSU covered by 27.5Closing total149.5Under by 19.5
 LIB | This season | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 6-3 |
| 3-3 | ATS | 4-5 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 5-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LIB 72–84 NCSU · ✓ NCSU (85%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 19 | 26 | 45 |
| NCSU | 45 | 40 | 85 |
1st half: LIB 19, NCSU 45 (NCSU by 26). The model had NCSU by 7.1 and a total of 72.5 (actual 64).
Team stats
| LIB | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 18-51 35% | Field goals | 31-60 52% |
| 6-28 21% | 3-pointers | 10-24 42% |
| 3-10 30% | Free throws | 13-19 68% |
| 31 6 off | Rebounds | 42 9 off |
| 14 | Assists | 17 |
| 3 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| LIB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Cleveland F | 33 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Metheny G | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-8 | 1-6 |
| JJ Harper G | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 6-9 | 0-3 |
| Brett Decker Jr. G | 28 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-12 | 3-8 |
| Colin Porter G | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zander Carter G | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Zander Yates F | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Josh Smith F | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Ryan Jones Jr. F | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Drew Grimes F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Brady Kester F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| TJ Drain F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| JC Shirer Jr. G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Torr Sorensen F | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Isaiah Ihnen
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadir Copeland G | 24 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Tre Holloman G | 24 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4-7 | 1-4 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 19 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Darrion Williams F | 19 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 3-9 | 1-3 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 23 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Alyn Breed G | 18 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| Matt Able G | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jerry Deng F | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Scottie Ebube C | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Snell G | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Colt Langdon F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jayme Kontuniemi, Zymicah Wilkins
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNCSU -12.5
ModelNCSU -12.0
Model edgeLIB +0.5
L NCSU covered
Total
Market149.5
Model154.9
Model edgeOver 5.4
L Under
Projected score
LIB 71.5 · NCSU 83.5
LIB 45 · NCSU 85
Win probability
NCSU 85%
1st half
Spread
NCSU -7.1
NCSU -26.0
Total
72.5
64 points
Projected score
LIB 32.7 · NCSU 39.8
LIB 19 · NCSU 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -11.5
1 → NCSU
CloseNCSU -12.5
1 pt toward NCSU
Total
Open157.5
▼ 8
Close149.5
Down 8 since the open
Moneyline
LIB +650 · NCSU -1000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -11.5 · closed NCSU -12.5 · moved 1 toward NCSUmodel NCSU -12
model NCSU -12
Opened 157.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 8 downmodel 155
model 155
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIBlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 3-3 50% | 4-2 67% |
| NCSUlast 9 | 6-3 67% | 4-5 44% | 5-4 56% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Liberty
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vs
COFC
COFCW 90-75
+5.5
9
vs
FAU
FAUW 88-68
+12.5
24
vs
UVM
UVMW 79-73
−2.5
25
vs
TOW
TOWL 69-72
−9.5
26
vs
BRAD
BRADL 64-74
−14.5
6
vs
COPP
COPPW 92-50
+11.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+19.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+3.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
+10.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
+3.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−6.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
−1.5
over 4under 2avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
NC State
9 games played
Straight up
6-3
67% wins
Against the spread
4-5
44% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-4
56% overs · avg +9.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
covered 4didn’t cover 5avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
over 5under 4avg +9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Liberty
4-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Coppin St92–50
- Lvs Bradley64–74
- Lvs Towson69–72
- Wvs Vermont79–73
- Wvs FAU88–68
4 days since their last game.
NC State
6-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UNC Asheville75–63
- L@ Auburn73–83
- Lvs Texas97–102
- Wvs Boise St81–70
- Lvs Seton Hall74–85
4 days since their last game.