Coppin State Eagles at Liberty Flames: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 2:00 PM ETLiberty Arena (VA) · at Liberty

#352COPPCoppin St50final

Final

#160LIBLiberty92▲ winner

Closing lineLIB -30.5✓ LIB covered by 11.5

Closing total143.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Coppin St and Liberty
COPP	This season	LIB
1-9	Record	3-2
4-6	ATS	2-3
7-3	O/U	4-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: COPP 61–86 LIB · ✓ LIB (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
COPP	14	36	50
LIB	55	37	92

1st half: COPP 14, LIB 55 (LIB by 41). The model had LIB by 14.9 and a total of 68.9 (actual 69).

Team stats

COPP		LIB
16-56 29%	Field goals	36-62 58%
6-21 29%	3-pointers	16-30 53%
12-18 67%	Free throws	4-7 57%
31 11 off	Rebounds	38 9 off
12	Assists	28
6	Steals	8
1	Blocks	6
15	Turnovers	11
11	Fouls	17
18	Points in paint	38
10	Fast-break points	7

Players

COPP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Baasil Saunders G	21	1	2	1	0-3	0-2
Hassan Perkins G	20	2	0	2	0-3	0-2
Chris Morgan F	16	2	2	0	1-8	0-1
Khali Horton F	15	5	2	1	1-5	0-4
Demariontay Hall F	14	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Nelson Lamizana F	24	13	3	0	5-10	1-2
Hussain Williams G	23	4	3	2	1-6	1-3
Taj Thweatt F	16	11	2	1	3-7	3-5
Daveyon Lydner G	14	0	1	4	0-2	0-0
Jamari Piercy G	13	9	8	0	4-8	1-2
Tyler Koenig F	11	3	2	1	1-2	0-0
Torrin Andrews G	9	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Josiah Brown G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Camaren Sparrow, Macahi Nelson, Favour Aire, Elijah Taylor

LIB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brett Decker Jr. G	28	20	1	1	7-14	6-10
Kaden Metheny G	26	13	2	7	4-6	4-6
Zach Cleveland F	26	8	7	13	4-6	0-0
JJ Harper G	22	16	7	2	5-7	3-4
Josh Smith F	22	16	7	0	8-10	0-0
Bench
Zander Carter G	24	7	3	5	3-6	1-3
Zander Yates F	21	3	2	0	1-5	1-4
Ryan Jones Jr. F	13	5	5	0	2-3	1-2
JC Shirer Jr. G	5	2	1	0	1-3	0-0
Drew Grimes F	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Brady Kester F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Torr Sorensen F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
TJ Drain F	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Colin Porter, Isaiah Ihnen

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LIB -30.5	LIB -24.9	COPP +5.6	L LIB covered
Total	143.5	147.1	Over 3.6	L Under
Projected score	—	COPP 61.1 · LIB 86

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LIB -14.9	LIB -41.0
1H total	68.9	69
1H projected score	COPP 27 · LIB 41.9	COPP 14 · LIB 55

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COPP WLWLL	4-6	40%	2-5	4-6
LIB WWLLL	2-3	40%	2-0	2-3

Venue/role: COPP away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
COPP OOUOO	7-3	70%	1-9
LIB OOOOU	4-1	80%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COPP	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
LIBlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Coppin St

10 games played

Straight up

1-9

10% wins

Against the spread

4-6

40% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-3

70% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-910%

L L L L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-640%

W L W L L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-370%

O O O U U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMD	L 61-83	+28.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 5	@LAS	L 59-87	+17.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 9	@JMU	L 70-84	+18.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@USF	L 50-100	+34.5	L −15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 14	vsCMU	L 59-82	+10.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsUSA	L 62-72	+18.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 22	@VCU	L 58-101	+32.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 25	@RID	W 68-65	+8.5	W +11.5	139.5	U 133
Nov 30	@L-MD	L 84-95	+9.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@WVU	L 49-91	+31.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 61-83

+6.5

LAS

L 59-87

−10.5

JMU

L 70-84

+4.5

USF

L 50-100

−15.5

CMU

L 59-82

−12.5

USA

L 62-72

+8.5

VCU

L 58-101

−10.5

RID

W 68-65

+11.5

L-MD

L 84-95

−1.5

WVU

L 49-91

−10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 6avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 61-83

+4.5

LAS

L 59-87

+6.5

JMU

L 70-84

+12.5

USF

L 50-100

−17.5

CMU

L 59-82

−1.5

USA

L 62-72

+0.5

VCU

L 58-101

+7.5

RID

W 68-65

−6.5

L-MD

L 84-95

+35.5

WVU

L 49-91

+5.5

over 7under 3avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Liberty

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCOFC	W 90-75	-9.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 9	vsFAU	W 88-68	-7.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsUVM	W 79-73	-8.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTOW	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsBRAD	L 64-74	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+5.5

FAU

W 88-68

+12.5

UVM

W 79-73

−2.5

TOW

L 69-72

−9.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−14.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+19.5

FAU

W 88-68

+3.5

UVM

W 79-73

+10.5

TOW

L 69-72

+3.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−6.5

over 4under 1avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Coppin State Eagles at Liberty Flames

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Coppin St

Liberty

Coppin St

Liberty