Boise State Broncos at Butler Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 2:00 PM ETHinkle Fieldhouse · at Butler

#86BOISBoise St77▲ winner

Final

#72BTLRButler68final

Closing lineBTLR -2.5✓ BOIS covered by 11.5

Closing total148.5Under by 3.5

Season records: Boise St and Butler
BOIS	This season	BTLR
4-2	Record	7-1
3-3	ATS	7-1
1-5	O/U	4-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BOIS 72–77 BTLR · ✗ BTLR (67%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BOIS	33	44	77
BTLR	31	37	68

1st half: BOIS 33, BTLR 31 (BOIS by 2). The model had BTLR by 3.0 and a total of 70.0 (actual 64).

Team stats

BOIS		BTLR
26-63 41%	Field goals	27-60 45%
4-15 27%	3-pointers	4-18 22%
21-26 81%	Free throws	10-17 59%
45 16 off	Rebounds	31 9 off
11	Assists	13
5	Steals	6
4	Blocks	4
8	Turnovers	8
16	Fouls	19
42	Points in paint	42
9	Fast-break points	10

Players

BOIS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dylan Andrews G	33	20	6	4	4-19	1-6
Javan Buchanan F	29	10	6	2	5-10	0-1
R.J. Keene II G	26	0	8	4	0-2	0-1
Andrew Meadow F	24	10	3	0	3-6	1-2
Drew Fielder F	19	16	5	1	7-11	1-3
Bench
Dominic Parolin F	24	8	10	0	3-4	0-0
Aginaldo Neto G	20	4	1	0	1-2	0-0
Pearson Carmichael F	17	9	1	0	3-6	1-2
Spencer Ahrens F	8	0	1	0	0-3	0-0

Did not play: Noah Bendinger, Bhan Buom, Brennan Ramirez, Ethan Lathan, Julian Bowie, Rayzhon Bergersen

BTLR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Finley Bizjack G	35	10	2	3	5-12	0-5
Michael Ajayi F	34	16	8	3	6-13	1-4
Jamie Kaiser Jr. F	32	7	4	1	3-6	0-1
Drayton Jones C	27	12	5	1	4-5	0-0
Azavier Robinson G	18	3	0	1	1-2	1-1
Bench
Yame Butler G	20	6	3	2	3-8	0-2
Yohan Traore F	11	2	1	1	1-4	0-0
Evan Haywood G	10	6	0	0	2-7	2-5
Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor G	6	6	3	0	2-3	0-0
Jack McCaffery F	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Jackson Keith F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jalen Jackson, Kevin Ndzie, Bryson Cardinal, Ethan McComb

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BTLR -2.5	BTLR -5.2	BTLR +2.7	L BOIS covered
Total	148.5	149.4	Over 0.9	L Under
Projected score	—	BOIS 72.1 · BTLR 77.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BTLR -3.0	BOIS -2.0
1H total	70.0	64
1H projected score	BOIS 33.5 · BTLR 36.5	BOIS 33 · BTLR 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS WLLWL	3-3	50%	—	1-1
BTLR WWWWL	7-1	88%	4-1	5-1

Venue/role: BOIS away, as underdog; BTLR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS UUUUU	1-5	17%	4-2
BTLR OOUOU	4-4	50%	7-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOISlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
BTLRlast 8	7-1 88%	7-1 88%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BOIS 1–1 BTLRSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · BOIS 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 2, 2024-25	BTLR 93 vs BOIS 100	BOIS -8.5	BTLR W
Nov 26, 2023-24	BTLR 70 vs BOIS 56	BOIS -1.5	BTLR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Boise St

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −10.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsUVU	W 101-77	-12.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 178
Nov 11	vsRGV	W 85-65	-16.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsMTST	W 62-58	-16.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 120
Nov 18	vsWICH	W 62-59	-9.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsUSC	L 67-70	+3.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsNCSU	L 70-81	+6.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVU

W 101-77

+11.5

RGV

W 85-65

+3.5

MTST

W 62-58

−12.5

WICH

W 62-59

−6.5

USC

L 67-70

+0.5

NCSU

L 70-81

−4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVU

W 101-77

+26.5

RGV

W 85-65

−11.5

MTST

W 62-58

−27.5

WICH

W 62-59

−29.5

USC

L 67-70

−18.5

NCSU

L 70-81

−1.5

over 1under 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Butler

8 games played

Straight up

7-1

88% wins

Against the spread

7-1

88% covers · avg +7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-188%

W W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-188%

W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-450%

U U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUSI	W 88-58	-22.5	W +7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 8	vsIUIN	W 112-80	-20.5	W +11.5	192.5	U 192
Nov 11	vsCHST	W 98-66	-26.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	@SMU	L 85-87	+7.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 21	vsSC	W 79-72	-3.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsUVA	W 80-73	+6.5	W +13.5	155.5	U 153
Nov 28	vsWRST	W 94-69	-14.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 163
Dec 2	vsEMU	W 84-68	-17.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 88-58

+7.5

IUIN

W 112-80

+11.5

CHST

W 98-66

+5.5

SMU

L 85-87

+5.5

W 79-72

+3.5

UVA

W 80-73

+13.5

WRST

W 94-69

+10.5

EMU

W 84-68

−1.5

covered 7didn’t cover 1avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 88-58

−10.5

IUIN

W 112-80

−0.5

CHST

W 98-66

+5.5

SMU

L 85-87

+8.5

W 79-72

+0.5

UVA

W 80-73

−2.5

WRST

W 94-69

+12.5

EMU

W 84-68

−1.5

over 4under 4avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Boise State Broncos at Butler Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Boise St

Butler

Boise St

Butler