Benchmark International Arena · Neutral site
#25MIAMiami AP #14
vs
#1FLAFlorida AP #1
LineFLA -4.5moved 1 toward MIA
Total160.5no move
Season records: Miami and Florida
MIAThis seasonFLA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FLA 87–71 · win probability FLA 91%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
FLA -4.5
moved 1 toward MIA
Total
160.5
model 157.9 · Under by 2.5
Model edge
FLA by 11
a gap this big often means news the model can’t see
Public on the spread
55% FLA
68% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FLA has more of the edges

MIA 1, FLA 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIA 16.1%, FLA 16.4%. Forced: MIA 18.3%, FLA 15.2%
FLASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MIA 55.3 and allows 51.8; FLA 54.1 and allows 46.1
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: MIA plays 69.2 a game (170th fastest), FLA 72.0 (34th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
MIA has played the 75th-hardest schedule, FLA the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less
FLASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIA 52%, FLA 85%. Transfers in: MIA 8, FLA 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIA 37.1, FLA 39.0. Allowed: MIA 29.5, FLA 34.0
Even
MIA offense vs FLA defense
Offense 30th of 366 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
Even
FLA offense vs MIA defense
Offense 1st of 366 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
MIA hits 34.9% and allows 35.8%; FLA hits 31.2% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 31.9% and 37.0% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIA 37.2%, FLA 43.4%. Defensive: MIA 74.1%, FLA 75.2%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Neutral-site favorites of 3 to 6.592866%50%47%
Non-conference games at this spread173667%50%49%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 160 to 164.578778%50%54%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward MIA
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
MIA +180 · FLA -219
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened FLA -5.5 · now FLA -5 · moved 0.5 toward MIAmodel FLA -15.5
Opened 160.5 · now 161 · moved 0.5 upmodel 158
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
MIA +4.5SpreadFLA -4.5
Bets
Money
Money is 13 pts ahead of bets on FLA -4.5
Over 160.5TotalUnder 160.5
Bets
Money
MIAWinnerFLA
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
MIAFLAOverUnderMIAFLA
BetMGMMGM——161.5+100161.5-120+180-220
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-5-115+5-105161-105161-115——
BetRiversBetRivers-5.5-114+5.5-109160.5-110160.5-113+165-210
BetUSBetUS-5-115+5-105161-105161-115——
BovadaBovada-5-110+5-110160-110160-110——
DraftKingsDK-4.5-102+4.5-118160.5-110160.5-110+180-218
FanDuelFD-5.5-115+5.5-105160.5-118160.5-104+184-225
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-5-111+5-101161-103161-113——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadFLA -4.5FLA -15.7FLA +11.2
Total160.5157.9Under 2.6
Projected score—MIA 71.1 · FLA 86.8

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadFLA -9.2—
1H total73.8—
1H projected scoreMIA 32.3 · FLA 41.5—

Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Miami 0, Florida 2, even 3
MiamiBetterFlorida
G B. Bland TR13.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
FLASmall
G D. Aberdeen TR13.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 90
G A. Lewis TR12.2 pts · 3 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92
Even
G B. Fland11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 89
F D. Goode TR15.7 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
Even
F T. Haugh17.1 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 97
F S. Henderson13.8 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81
FLASmall
F A. Condon15.1 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98
F M. Reneau18.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 98
Even
C R. Chinyelu10.9 pts · 11.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 97
MiamiBetterFlorida
MIA offense30th of 366 · +6.0
Even
FLA defense4th of 366 · +10.4
MIA defense26th of 366 · +4.3
Even
FLA offense1st of 366 · +17.0
Backcourt+4.0 · 2 players
FLASmall
Backcourt+5.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
FLABig
Frontcourt+17.1 · 3 players
Bench+3.0 · 5 players
Even
Bench+3.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIA betterFLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Miami
Guards
B. Bland34 min · TRA. Lewis31 min · TRD. Allen24 minN. Dorn23 min · TRL. Cason19 min · TRQ. Berger17 min · TR
Forwards
D. Goode31 min · TRS. Henderson31 minM. Reneau29 minR. Miller19 min · TRM. Allen19 minC. GaskinsNew
Centers
S. Cyril21 min · TRE. RyzhovNew
Florida
Guards
D. Aberdeen31 min · TRB. Fland30 minU. Klavzar21 minI. Brown13 minC. Ingram6 minA. Lloyd5 min
Forwards
T. Haugh33 minA. Condon31 minD. PetrovicNewA. ButajevasNew
Centers
R. Chinyelu25 minV. Mikic3 minJ. LayNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MIAFLA
Scoring
81.5 #39Points per game87.1 #5
1.18 #38Points per possession1.21 #7
69.2 #170Pace (possessions)72.0 #34
Shooting
55.3 #32Effective FG%54.1 #63
34.9 #1273-point %31.2 #315
31.9 #3313-point attempt rate37.0 #230
37.1 #125Free throw rate39.0 #80
Possessions
16.1 #147Turnover rate16.4 #162
37.2 #14Offensive rebound rate43.4 #2
16.2 #42Assists per game17.0 #26
Defense
71.2 #79Points allowed71.5 #93
1.03 #60Points allowed per possession0.99 #19
51.8 #198Opponent effective FG%46.1 #10
35.8 #296Opponent 3-point %32.1 #66
18.3 #87Turnovers forced15.2 #269
74.1 #19Defensive rebound rate75.2 #7
7.9 #48Steals per game6.6 #158
3.3 #174Blocks per game5.0 #16

Miami

26-9 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue69–79
  • Wvs Missouri80–66
  • Lvs Virginia62–84
  • Wvs Louisville78–73
  • Lvs Louisville89–92

A week or more of rest.

Florida

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa72–73
  • Wvs Prairie View114–55
  • Lvs Vanderbilt74–91
  • Wvs Kentucky71–63
  • W@ Kentucky84–77

A week or more of rest.