1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 9
  3. UNF @ MIA
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 9

North Florida Ospreys at Miami Hurricanes

Watsco Center · at Miami
#333UNFNorth Florida
@
#25MIAMiami AP #14
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNFThis seasonMIA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 97–62 · win probability MIA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 159.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

UNF 0, MIA 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIABig
MIA offense vs UNF defense
Offense 30th of 366 against a defense 363rd, on the model’s ratings
MIABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNF 25.2%, MIA 37.2%. Defensive: UNF 62.4%, MIA 74.1%
MIABig
UNF offense vs MIA defense
Offense 228th of 366 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
MIABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNF 17.8%, MIA 16.1%. Forced: UNF 12.8%, MIA 18.3%
MIABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNF 28.8, MIA 37.1. Allowed: UNF 31.4, MIA 29.5
MIABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNF 52.9 and allows 56.3; MIA 55.3 and allows 51.8
Context
Schedule so far
UNF has played the 168th-hardest schedule, MIA the 75th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: UNF plays 72.3 a game (31st fastest), MIA 69.2 (170th). Faster games mean more points
MIASmall
Home court
MIA at home. This season: MIA 0-0 at home, UNF 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
UNF hits 35.0% and allows 35.1%; MIA hits 34.9% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 51.7% and 31.9% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNF 45%, MIA 52%. Transfers in: UNF 3, MIA 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIA -34.7—
Total—159.0—
Projected score—UNF 62.1 · MIA 96.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIA -20.5—
1H total74.3—
1H projected scoreUNF 26.9 · MIA 47.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Miami has the better starters

Position by position: North Florida 0, Miami 5, even 0
North FloridaBetterMiami
G K. Jackson14.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 38
MIABig
G B. Bland TR13.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
G B. Plummer7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
MIABig
G A. Lewis TR12.2 pts · 3 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92
G M. Lee7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29
MIABig
F D. Goode TR15.7 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
G E. Placer TR8.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 21
MIABig
F S. Henderson13.8 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81
G E. Elliott TR4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 8
MIABig
F M. Reneau18.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 98
North FloridaBetterMiami
UNF offense228th of 366 · -7.0
MIABig
MIA defense26th of 366 · +4.3
UNF defense363rd of 366 · -12.0
MIABig
MIA offense30th of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-12.6 · 5 players
MIABig
Backcourt+4.0 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
MIABig
Bench+3.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUNF betterMIA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Florida
Guards
K. Jackson33 minB. Plummer27 minM. Lee26 minE. Placer26 min · TRE. Elliott22 min · TRG. Jacobs3 min
Forwards
A. Bryant8 min · TRA. BegajNewI. BrownNew
Miami
Guards
B. Bland34 min · TRA. Lewis31 min · TRD. Allen24 minN. Dorn23 min · TRL. Cason19 min · TRQ. Berger17 min · TR
Forwards
D. Goode31 min · TRS. Henderson31 minM. Reneau29 minR. Miller19 min · TRM. Allen19 minC. GaskinsNew
Centers
S. Cyril21 min · TRE. RyzhovNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNFMIA
Scoring
77.1 #112Points per game81.5 #39
1.06 #218Points per possession1.18 #38
72.3 #31Pace (possessions)69.2 #170
Shooting
52.9 #106Effective FG%55.3 #32
35.0 #1173-point %34.9 #127
51.7 #73-point attempt rate31.9 #331
28.8 #333Free throw rate37.1 #125
Possessions
17.8 #261Turnover rate16.1 #147
25.2 #335Offensive rebound rate37.2 #14
13.4 #185Assists per game16.2 #42
Defense
89.6 #365Points allowed71.2 #79
1.24 #364Points allowed per possession1.03 #60
56.3 #349Opponent effective FG%51.8 #198
35.1 #253Opponent 3-point %35.8 #296
12.8 #360Turnovers forced18.3 #87
62.4 #361Defensive rebound rate74.1 #19
4.6 #352Steals per game7.9 #48
1.4 #364Blocks per game3.3 #174
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Florida

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Georgia85–93
  • Lvs Jacksonville61–85
  • Wvs FGCU76–70
  • L@ Stetson71–76
  • Lvs Austin Peay76–77

A week or more of rest.

Miami

26-9 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue69–79
  • Wvs Missouri80–66
  • Lvs Virginia62–84
  • Wvs Louisville78–73
  • Lvs Louisville89–92

A week or more of rest.