1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. MAN @ MIA
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Manhattan Jaspers at Miami Hurricanes

Watsco Center · at Miami
#330MANManhattan
@
#25MIAMiami AP #14
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MANThis seasonMIA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 94–59 · win probability MIA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

MAN 0, MIA 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIABig
MIA offense vs MAN defense
Offense 30th of 366 against a defense 346th, on the model’s ratings
MIABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MAN 28.6%, MIA 37.2%. Defensive: MAN 63.0%, MIA 74.1%
MIABig
MAN offense vs MIA defense
Offense 301st of 366 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MAN has played the 336th-hardest schedule, MIA the 75th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MIABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MAN 47.9 and allows 53.9; MIA 55.3 and allows 51.8
MIASmall
Three-pointers
MAN hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%; MIA hits 34.9% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 37.1% and 31.9% of their shots
MIASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MAN 10%, MIA 52%. Transfers in: MAN 5, MIA 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MIASmall
Home court
MIA at home. This season: MIA 0-0 at home, MAN 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MAN 15.6%, MIA 16.1%. Forced: MAN 16.6%, MIA 18.3%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MAN 34.0, MIA 37.1. Allowed: MAN 25.7, MIA 29.5
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MAN plays 69.0 a game (182nd fastest), MIA 69.2 (170th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIA -34.7—
Total—152.3—
Projected score—MAN 58.8 · MIA 93.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIA -20.5—
1H total71.2—
1H projected scoreMAN 25.3 · MIA 45.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Miami has the better starters

Position by position: Manhattan 0, Miami 3, even 2
ManhattanBetterMiami
G B. Tweedy TR9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 29
MIABig
G B. Bland TR13.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
G J. Sabino TR7.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 53
MIABig
G A. Lewis TR12.2 pts · 3 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92
G Q. Elliott3.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 17
MIABig
F D. Goode TR15.7 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
G J. Delaney0.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F S. Henderson13.8 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81
F O. Stankovic TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
F M. Reneau18.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 98
ManhattanBetterMiami
MAN offense301st of 366 · -9.4
MIABig
MIA defense26th of 366 · +4.3
MAN defense346th of 366 · -9.3
MIABig
MIA offense30th of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-4.3 · 4 players
MIABig
Backcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
MIABig
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
Bench-0.5 · 3 players
MIABig
Bench+3.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMAN betterMIA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Manhattan
Guards
B. Tweedy30 min · TRJ. Sabino21 min · TRQ. Elliott12 minJ. Delaney5 minA. Miguel4 minB. PearceNew
Forwards
O. Stankovic6 min · TRK. Kearney4 min · TRL. McChesney3 min · TRI. JohnsonNewD. EricNewN. ManojlovicNew
Miami
Guards
B. Bland34 min · TRA. Lewis31 min · TRD. Allen24 minN. Dorn23 min · TRL. Cason19 min · TRQ. Berger17 min · TR
Forwards
D. Goode31 min · TRS. Henderson31 minM. Reneau29 minR. Miller19 min · TRM. Allen19 minC. GaskinsNew
Centers
S. Cyril21 min · TRE. RyzhovNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MANMIA
Scoring
72.4 #232Points per game81.5 #39
1.05 #247Points per possession1.18 #38
69.0 #182Pace (possessions)69.2 #170
Shooting
47.9 #315Effective FG%55.3 #32
32.0 #2803-point %34.9 #127
37.1 #2283-point attempt rate31.9 #331
34.0 #208Free throw rate37.1 #125
Possessions
15.6 #112Turnover rate16.1 #147
28.6 #247Offensive rebound rate37.2 #14
12.3 #268Assists per game16.2 #42
Defense
79.6 #309Points allowed71.2 #79
1.15 #330Points allowed per possession1.03 #60
53.9 #297Opponent effective FG%51.8 #198
36.6 #332Opponent 3-point %35.8 #296
16.6 #175Turnovers forced18.3 #87
63.0 #358Defensive rebound rate74.1 #19
7.8 #54Steals per game7.9 #48
2.3 #325Blocks per game3.3 #174
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Manhattan

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fairfield60–71
  • Lvs Iona65–69
  • L@ Saint Peter's65–75
  • Lvs Marist70–84
  • W@ Canisius69–65

A week or more of rest.

Miami

26-9 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue69–79
  • Wvs Missouri80–66
  • Lvs Virginia62–84
  • Wvs Louisville78–73
  • Lvs Louisville89–92

A week or more of rest.