1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. TCU vs MIA
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

TCU Horned Frogs vs Miami Hurricanes

T-Mobile Arena · Neutral site
#40TCUTCU
vs
#25MIAMiami AP #14
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TCUThis seasonMIA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 78–74 · win probability MIA 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

TCU 1, MIA 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: TCU 50.4 and allows 51.2; MIA 55.3 and allows 51.8
MIASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TCU 34.0%, MIA 37.2%. Defensive: TCU 70.9%, MIA 74.1%
TCUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TCU 15.3%, MIA 16.1%. Forced: TCU 19.5%, MIA 18.3%
Context
Schedule so far
TCU has played the 29th-hardest schedule, MIA the 75th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: TCU plays 70.2 a game (108th fastest), MIA 69.2 (170th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
TCU hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%; MIA hits 34.9% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 36.8% and 31.9% of their shots
Even
TCU offense vs MIA defense
Offense 48th of 366 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TCU 37.5, MIA 37.1. Allowed: TCU 30.4, MIA 29.5
Even
MIA offense vs TCU defense
Offense 30th of 366 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TCU 52%, MIA 52%. Transfers in: TCU 3, MIA 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIA -4.0—
Total—151.0—
Projected score—TCU 73.5 · MIA 77.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIA -2.3—
1H total70.6—
1H projected scoreTCU 34.2 · MIA 36.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: TCU 1, Miami 1, even 3
TCUBetterMiami
G G. Sykes TR19.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89
TCUSmall
G B. Bland TR13.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
G B. Harding8 pts · 2.9 reb · 5.6 ast Score 67
MIASmall
G A. Lewis TR12.2 pts · 3 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92
G M. Robinson10.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 85
Even
F D. Goode TR15.7 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
G T. Toolson7.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 75
Even
F S. Henderson13.8 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81
F X. Edmonds12.7 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 98
Even
F M. Reneau18.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 98
TCUBetterMiami
TCU offense48th of 366 · +3.8
Even
MIA defense26th of 366 · +4.3
TCU defense27th of 366 · +3.9
Even
MIA offense30th of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
TCUSmall
Backcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
MIABig
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
Bench+1.6 · 3 players
MIASmall
Bench+3.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTCU betterMIA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
TCU
Guards
G. Sykes34 min · TRB. Harding32 minM. Robinson27 minT. Toolson21 minD. McElroy1 minG. MurphyNew
Forwards
X. Edmonds23 minD. Thomas17 min · TRL. Bamgboye17 min · TRR. HuntNewS. FlemingNewM. SojicNew
Miami
Guards
B. Bland34 min · TRA. Lewis31 min · TRD. Allen24 minN. Dorn23 min · TRL. Cason19 min · TRQ. Berger17 min · TR
Forwards
D. Goode31 min · TRS. Henderson31 minM. Reneau29 minR. Miller19 min · TRM. Allen19 minC. GaskinsNew
Centers
S. Cyril21 min · TRE. RyzhovNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TCUMIA
Scoring
77.4 #109Points per game81.5 #39
1.10 #127Points per possession1.18 #38
70.2 #108Pace (possessions)69.2 #170
Shooting
50.4 #221Effective FG%55.3 #32
33.2 #2203-point %34.9 #127
36.8 #2333-point attempt rate31.9 #331
37.5 #112Free throw rate37.1 #125
Possessions
15.3 #90Turnover rate16.1 #147
34.0 #67Offensive rebound rate37.2 #14
15.4 #71Assists per game16.2 #42
Defense
72.1 #107Points allowed71.2 #79
1.02 #50Points allowed per possession1.03 #60
51.2 #172Opponent effective FG%51.8 #198
33.5 #158Opponent 3-point %35.8 #296
19.5 #33Turnovers forced18.3 #87
70.9 #112Defensive rebound rate74.1 #19
7.7 #61Steals per game7.9 #48
4.5 #39Blocks per game3.3 #174
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

TCU

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke58–81
  • Wvs Ohio State66–64
  • Lvs Kansas73–78
  • Wvs Oklahoma St95–88
  • Wvs Cincinnati73–63

A week or more of rest.

Miami

26-9 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue69–79
  • Wvs Missouri80–66
  • Lvs Virginia62–84
  • Wvs Louisville78–73
  • Lvs Louisville89–92

A week or more of rest.