TCU Horned Frogs at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 2:00 PM ETPurcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame

#40TCUTCU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: TCU and Notre Dame
TCU	This season	ND
0-0	Record	1-0
0-0	ATS	1-0
0-0	O/U	1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TCU 75–74 · win probability TCU 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TCU has more of the edges

TCU 3, ND 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TCUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TCU 15.3%, ND 16.9%. Forced: TCU 19.5%, ND 14.0%

TCUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TCU 37.5, ND 34.1. Allowed: TCU 30.4, ND 36.2

NDSmall

Three-pointers

TCU hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%; ND hits 35.6% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 36.8% and 43.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: TCU plays 70.2 a game (108th fastest), ND 67.7 (239th). Faster games mean more points

NDSmall

Home court

ND at home. This season: ND 0-0 at home, TCU 0-0 away

TCUSmall

ND offense vs TCU defense

Offense 76th of 366 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

TCU has played the 29th-hardest schedule, ND the 69th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TCU 50.4 and allows 51.2; ND 52.3 and allows 51.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TCU 52%, ND 38%. Transfers in: TCU 3, ND 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

TCU offense vs ND defense

Offense 48th of 366 against a defense 63rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TCU 34.0%, ND 31.2%. Defensive: TCU 70.9%, ND 73.3%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TCU -1.4	—
Total	—	149.3	—
Projected score	—	TCU 75.3 · ND 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TCU -0.9	—
1H total	69.8	—
1H projected score	TCU 35.4 · ND 34.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU WLLWL	19-16	54%	7-3	—
ND LLWLL	15-16	48%	8-9	—

Venue/role: TCU away; ND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU UOOUU	15-20	43%	23-12
ND OOOOO	22-9	71%	13-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
ND	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

TCU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs ALST	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs CLEM	L66–74LU

Notre Dame

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs LIU	W89–67WO
Dec 12	vs OSU	L63–64WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TCU 0–1 NDND leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TCU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 5, 2025-26	ND 87 @ TCU 85	TCU -6.5	ND W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

TCU

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

L W W L W W W L W W W W W W L L L L W W L L W W W L W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L W L W W W W L W L L L W W W L W L L W L L L W W L W W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

O O U U U O U O U U U U O U O O U O U O O U O U O U U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNOLA	L 74-78	-21.5	L −25.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 6	vsSFPA	W 104-63	-27.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 167
Nov 10	vsLAM	W 78-65	-18.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 143
Nov 14	vsMICH	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	164.5	U 130
Nov 19	vsKC	W 81-45	-23.5	W +12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 27	vsFLA	W 84-80	+11.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 164
Nov 28	vsWIS	W 74-63	+5.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 137
Dec 5	vsND	L 85-87	-6.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 7	@UNT	W 65-55	-9.5	W +0.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 15	vsUIW	W 69-65	-19.5	L −15.5	143.5	U 134
Dec 18	vsORU	W 72-53	-23.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 125
Dec 21	vsFAMU	W 80-56	-29.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 29	vsJKST	W 115-64	-30.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsBAY	W 69-63	-2.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 132
Jan 6	@KU	L 100-104	+6.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 204
Jan 10	vsARIZ	L 73-86	+7.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 159
Jan 14	@BYU	L 70-76	+13.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 146
Jan 17	@UTAH	L 79-82	-4.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 161
Jan 20	vsOKST	W 68-65	-8.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 133
Jan 24	@BAY	W 97-90	+4.5	W +11.5	147.5	O 187
Jan 28	vsHOU	L 70-79	+8.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 149
Feb 1	@COLO	L 61-87	-1.5	L −27.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsKSU	W 84-82	-9.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 166
Feb 10	vsISU	W 62-55	+7.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 117
Feb 14	@OKST	W 95-92	-1.5	W +1.5	156.5	O 187
Feb 17	@UCF	L 71-82	-1.5	L −12.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 21	vsWVU	W 60-54	-4.5	W +1.5	133.5	U 114
Feb 24	vsASU	W 90-78	-6.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 168
Feb 28	@KSU	W 77-68	-3.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 145
Mar 3	@TTU	W 73-65	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 138
Mar 7	vsCIN	W 73-63	-2.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 136
Mar 11	vsOKST	W 95-88	-7.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 183
Mar 12	vsKU	L 73-78	+4.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 151
Mar 19	vsOSU	W 66-64	+2.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 130
Mar 21	vsDUKE	L 58-81	+12.5	L −10.5	140.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NOLA

L 74-78

−25.5

SFPA

W 104-63

+13.5

LAM

W 78-65

−5.5

MICH

L 63-67

+3.5

W 81-45

+12.5

FLA

W 84-80

+15.5

WIS

W 74-63

+16.5

L 85-87

−8.5

UNT

W 65-55

+0.5

UIW

W 69-65

−15.5

ORU

W 72-53

−4.5

FAMU

W 80-56

−5.5

JKST

W 115-64

+20.5

BAY

W 69-63

+3.5

L 100-104

+2.5

ARIZ

L 73-86

−5.5

BYU

L 70-76

+7.5

UTAH

L 79-82

−7.5

OKST

W 68-65

−5.5

BAY

W 97-90

+11.5

HOU

L 70-79

−0.5

COLO

L 61-87

−27.5

KSU

W 84-82

−7.5

ISU

W 62-55

+14.5

OKST

W 95-92

+1.5

UCF

L 71-82

−12.5

WVU

W 60-54

+1.5

ASU

W 90-78

+5.5

KSU

W 77-68

+5.5

TTU

W 73-65

+16.5

CIN

W 73-63

+7.5

OKST

W 95-88

−0.5

L 73-78

−0.5

OSU

W 66-64

+4.5

DUKE

L 58-81

−10.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NOLA

L 74-78

+2.5

SFPA

W 104-63

+13.5

LAM

W 78-65

−4.5

MICH

L 63-67

−34.5

W 81-45

−24.5

FLA

W 84-80

+8.5

WIS

W 74-63

−20.5

L 85-87

+30.5

UNT

W 65-55

−15.5

UIW

W 69-65

−9.5

ORU

W 72-53

−22.5

FAMU

W 80-56

−6.5

JKST

W 115-64

+35.5

BAY

W 69-63

−22.5

L 100-104

+60.5

ARIZ

L 73-86

+1.5

BYU

L 70-76

−16.5

UTAH

L 79-82

+6.5

OKST

W 68-65

−28.5

BAY

W 97-90

+39.5

HOU

L 70-79

+9.5

COLO

L 61-87

−5.5

KSU

W 84-82

+10.5

ISU

W 62-55

−30.5

OKST

W 95-92

+30.5

UCF

L 71-82

−1.5

WVU

W 60-54

−19.5

ASU

W 90-78

+18.5

KSU

W 77-68

−14.5

TTU

W 73-65

−9.5

CIN

W 73-63

−4.5

OKST

W 95-88

+24.5

L 73-78

+4.5

OSU

W 66-64

−15.5

DUKE

L 58-81

−1.5

over 15under 20avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Notre Dame

31 games played

Straight up

13-18

42% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-9

71% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1842%

W W W L W L W L W W W W L W L L L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

W W L W L L L W W W W W L W W L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

22-971%

O O U U O U U U O O O O U U O O O O O U O O U O O O O O O O O

8 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIU	W 89-67	-15.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 7	vsDETM	W 102-70	-21.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsEIU	W 78-58	-23.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 16	@OSU	L 63-64	+9.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 19	vsBELL	W 86-79	-24.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	vsKU	L 61-71	+5.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsRUTG	W 68-63	-6.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsHOU	L 56-66	+11.5	W +1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 2	vsMIZ	W 76-71	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 5	@TCU	W 87-85	+6.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 10	vsIDHO	W 80-65	-11.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 145
Dec 13	vsEVAN	W 82-58	-14.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 21	vsPFW	L 69-72	-11.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 141
Dec 30	@STAN	W 47-40	+6.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 87
Jan 2	@CAL	L 71-72	+3.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 10	vsCLEM	L 61-76	+3.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 13	vsMIA	L 69-81	+5.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 17	@VT	L 76-89	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 21	@UNC	L 69-91	+13.5	L −8.5	149.5	O 160
Jan 24	vsBC	W 68-64	-7.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 27	vsUVA	L 97-100	+9.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 197
Jan 31	@SYR	L 72-86	+6.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 4	@LOU	L 65-76	+19.5	W +8.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 7	vsFSU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 10	@SMU	L 81-89	+10.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 170
Feb 14	vsGT	W 89-74	-5.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 21	@PITT	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 24	vsDUKE	L 56-100	+16.5	L −27.5	141.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsNCSU	W 96-90	+6.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 186
Mar 4	vsSTAN	L 78-86	+1.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 164
Mar 7	@BC	L 69-77	-1.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+6.5

DETM

W 102-70

+10.5

EIU

W 78-58

−3.5

OSU

L 63-64

+8.5

BELL

W 86-79

−17.5

L 61-71

−4.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−1.5

HOU

L 56-66

+1.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+6.5

TCU

W 87-85

+8.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+3.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+9.5

PFW

L 69-72

−14.5

STAN

W 47-40

+13.5

CAL

L 71-72

+2.5

CLEM

L 61-76

−11.5

MIA

L 69-81

−6.5

L 76-89

−6.5

UNC

L 69-91

−8.5

W 68-64

−3.5

UVA

L 97-100

+6.5

SYR

L 72-86

−7.5

LOU

L 65-76

+8.5

FSU

L 79-82

−4.5

SMU

L 81-89

+2.5

W 89-74

+9.5

PITT

L 68-73

−1.5

DUKE

L 56-100

−27.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+12.5

STAN

L 78-86

−6.5

L 69-77

−9.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+20.5

DETM

W 102-70

+24.5

EIU

W 78-58

−7.5

OSU

L 63-64

−29.5

BELL

W 86-79

+14.5

L 61-71

−11.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−9.5

HOU

L 56-66

−10.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+0.5

TCU

W 87-85

+30.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+0.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+3.5

PFW

L 69-72

−8.5

STAN

W 47-40

−56.5

CAL

L 71-72

+4.5

CLEM

L 61-76

+3.5

MIA

L 69-81

+6.5

L 76-89

+21.5

UNC

L 69-91

+10.5

W 68-64

−5.5

UVA

L 97-100

+51.5

SYR

L 72-86

+10.5

LOU

L 65-76

−14.5

FSU

L 79-82

+6.5

SMU

L 81-89

+15.5

W 89-74

+12.5

PITT

L 68-73

+0.5

DUKE

L 56-100

+14.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+32.5

STAN

L 78-86

+16.5

L 69-77

+4.5

over 22under 9avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

TCU has the better starters

Position by position: TCU 2, Notre Dame 0, even 3

TCUBetterNotre Dame

G G. Sykes TR19.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89

TCUSmall

G B. Shrewsberry15 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 73

G B. Harding8 pts · 2.9 reb · 5.6 ast Score 67

Even

G E. Roberts TR11 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Score 64

G M. Robinson10.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 85

Even

G B. Smith TR16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 91

G T. Toolson7.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 75

TCUSmall

G D. Brown TR6.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 43

F X. Edmonds12.7 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 98

Even

C L. Duncomb TR18.2 pts · 8.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 99

TCUBetterNotre Dame

TCU offense48th of 366 · +3.8

Even

ND defense63rd of 366 · +1.2

TCU defense27th of 366 · +3.9

Even

ND offense76th of 366 · +1.1

Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player

NDSmall

Frontcourt+7.1 · 1 player

Bench+1.6 · 3 players

TCUSmall

Bench-0.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestTCU betterND betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

TCU

Guards

G. Sykes34 min · TRB. Harding32 minM. Robinson27 minT. Toolson21 minD. McElroy1 minG. MurphyNew

Forwards

X. Edmonds23 minD. Thomas17 min · TRL. Bamgboye17 min · TRR. HuntNewS. FlemingNewM. SojicNew

Notre Dame

Guards

B. Shrewsberry36 minE. Roberts32 min · TRB. Smith31 min · TRD. Brown24 min · TRL. Imes21 minB. Stevens2 min

Forwards

B. Koehler16 minB. Ruglass Dortch15 min · TRY. DialloNewL. DevineNew

Centers

L. Duncomb25 min · TRT. AhnemanNewG. SolongoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TCU77.4 #109

ND74.5 #180

Points per possession

TCU1.10 #127

ND1.10 #143

Pace (possessions)

TCU70.2 #108

ND67.7 #239

Shooting

Effective FG%

TCU50.4 #221

ND52.3 #133

3-point %

TCU33.2 #220

ND35.6 #82

3-point attempt rate

TCU36.8 #233

ND43.5 #101

Free throw rate

TCU37.5 #112

ND34.1 #206

Possessions

Turnover rate

TCU15.3 #90

ND16.9 #199

Offensive rebound rate

TCU34.0 #67

ND31.2 #155

Assists per game

TCU15.4 #71

ND12.3 #267

Defense

Points allowed

TCU72.1 #107

ND75.3 #197

Points allowed per possession

TCU1.02 #50

ND1.11 #255

Opponent effective FG%

TCU51.2 #172

ND51.8 #200

Opponent 3-point %

TCU33.5 #158

ND33.2 #138

Turnovers forced

TCU19.5 #33

ND14.0 #337

Defensive rebound rate

TCU70.9 #112

ND73.3 #27

Steals per game

TCU7.7 #61

ND4.5 #355

Blocks per game

TCU4.5 #39

ND2.2 #328

TCU		ND
Scoring
77.4 #109	Points per game	74.5 #180
1.10 #127	Points per possession	1.10 #143
70.2 #108	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #239
Shooting
50.4 #221	Effective FG%	52.3 #133
33.2 #220	3-point %	35.6 #82
36.8 #233	3-point attempt rate	43.5 #101
37.5 #112	Free throw rate	34.1 #206
Possessions
15.3 #90	Turnover rate	16.9 #199
34.0 #67	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #155
15.4 #71	Assists per game	12.3 #267
Defense
72.1 #107	Points allowed	75.3 #197
1.02 #50	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #255
51.2 #172	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #200
33.5 #158	Opponent 3-point %	33.2 #138
19.5 #33	Turnovers forced	14.0 #337
70.9 #112	Defensive rebound rate	73.3 #27
7.7 #61	Steals per game	4.5 #355
4.5 #39	Blocks per game	2.2 #328

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

TCU

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duke58–81
Wvs Ohio State66–64
Lvs Kansas73–78
Wvs Oklahoma St95–88
Wvs Cincinnati73–63

A week or more of rest.

Notre Dame

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston College69–77
Lvs Stanford78–86
Wvs NC State96–90
Lvs Duke56–100
L@ Pitt68–73

A week or more of rest.

TCU Horned Frogs at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

What could decide it: TCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

TCU

Notre Dame

TCU has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

TCU

Notre Dame