Long Island University Sharks at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 7:00 PM ETPurcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Long Island and Notre Dame
LIU	This season	ND
0-0	Record	1-0
0-0	ATS	1-0
0-0	O/U	1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ND 85–61 · win probability ND 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ND has more of the edges

LIU 2, ND 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NDBig

LIU offense vs ND defense

Offense 339th of 366 against a defense 63rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LIU has played the 290th-hardest schedule, ND the 69th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NDBig

ND offense vs LIU defense

Offense 76th of 366 against a defense 283rd, on the model’s ratings

NDSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIU 33.9%, ND 31.2%. Defensive: LIU 67.0%, ND 73.3%

LIUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIU 19.0%, ND 16.9%. Forced: LIU 18.7%, ND 14.0%

LIUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIU 52.8 and allows 50.0; ND 52.3 and allows 51.8

NDSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIU 6%, ND 38%. Transfers in: LIU 6, ND 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

NDSmall

Home court

ND at home. This season: ND 0-0 at home, LIU 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

LIU hits 35.8% and allows 32.2%; ND hits 35.6% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 29.3% and 43.5% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIU 34.0, ND 34.1. Allowed: LIU 34.7, ND 36.2

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: LIU plays 68.5 a game (206th fastest), ND 67.7 (239th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ND -24.1	—
Total	—	145.7	—
Projected score	—	LIU 60.8 · ND 84.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ND -14.2	—
1H total	68.2	—
1H projected score	LIU 27 · ND 41.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIU WLWWL	17-18	49%	8-11	—
ND LLWLL	15-16	48%	8-9	—

Venue/role: LIU away; ND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIU UOUOO	15-20	43%	24-11
ND OOOOO	22-9	71%	13-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
ND	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Long Island

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs PRIN	No recent meeting

Notre Dame

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs OSU	L63–64WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LIU 0–1 NDND leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LIU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 3, 2025-26	LIU 67 @ ND 89	ND -15.5	ND W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Long Island

35 games played

Straight up

24-11

69% wins

Against the spread

17-18

49% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1169%

L W W W L L W L W W L L L W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1849%

L W L W L L W W W W W L W L W L L L L L W W L L W L W L L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

O U O O U U U O O U O O U O U U U U O U U U U U U U O O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ND	L 67-89	+15.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 6	@IUIN	W 94-90	+4.5	W +8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 11	@AF	W 76-72	-5.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsJMU	W 88-79	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 167
Nov 20	@FOR	L 53-69	+4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 122
Nov 22	@ILL	L 58-98	+34.5	L −5.5	160.5	U 156
Nov 24	@MOST	W 75-61	+4.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsWIN	L 92-94	+5.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 186
Dec 6	@LEH	W 87-82	-1.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsLAS	W 70-60	-2.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 130
Dec 16	@MSST	L 83-87	+16.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 20	@FIU	L 79-86	+6.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 165
Dec 29	@UGA	L 74-89	+30.5	W +15.5	179.5	U 163
Jan 2	vsCCSU	W 84-78	-6.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 4	@CHST	W 74-55	-7.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 8	vsMERC	W 60-58	-8.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 10	vsSFPA	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 17	@FDU	W 66-59	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 125
Jan 19	@LEM	L 77-83	-1.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 23	@STO	W 66-63	-5.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 29	vsLEM	W 83-61	-8.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 31	@CCSU	W 80-59	-2.5	W +18.5	142.5	U 139
Feb 5	vsNHVN	W 60-55	-9.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 7	vsSTO	W 61-54	-10.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 115
Feb 12	@WAG	W 67-57	-6.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 124
Feb 14	@NHVN	L 52-55	-6.5	L −9.5	129.5	U 107
Feb 16	vsWAG	W 83-65	-10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 19	@SFPA	W 91-89	-9.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 180
Feb 21	@MERC	L 83-91	-3.5	L −11.5	140.5	O 174
Feb 26	vsCHST	W 73-56	-11.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsFDU	W 74-60	-9.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 134
Mar 4	vsCHST	W 79-75	-10.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 154
Mar 7	vsWAG	W 64-56	-6.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 120
Mar 10	vsMERC	W 79-70	-4.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 149
Mar 20	vsARIZ	L 58-92	+30.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 67-89

−6.5

IUIN

W 94-90

+8.5

W 76-72

−1.5

JMU

W 88-79

+5.5

FOR

L 53-69

−11.5

ILL

L 58-98

−5.5

MOST

W 75-61

+18.5

WIN

L 92-94

+3.5

LEH

W 87-82

+3.5

LAS

W 70-60

+7.5

MSST

L 83-87

+12.5

FIU

L 79-86

−0.5

UGA

L 74-89

+15.5

CCSU

W 84-78

−0.5

CHST

W 74-55

+11.5

MERC

W 60-58

−6.5

SFPA

W 67-63

−11.5

FDU

W 66-59

−0.5

LEM

L 77-83

−7.5

STO

W 66-63

−2.5

LEM

W 83-61

+13.5

CCSU

W 80-59

+18.5

NHVN

W 60-55

−4.5

STO

W 61-54

−3.5

WAG

W 67-57

+3.5

NHVN

L 52-55

−9.5

WAG

W 83-65

+7.5

SFPA

W 91-89

−7.5

MERC

L 83-91

−11.5

CHST

W 73-56

+5.5

FDU

W 74-60

+4.5

CHST

W 79-75

−6.5

WAG

W 64-56

+1.5

MERC

W 79-70

+4.5

ARIZ

L 58-92

−3.5

covered 17didn’t cover 18avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 67-89

+20.5

IUIN

W 94-90

−1.5

W 76-72

+10.5

JMU

W 88-79

+19.5

FOR

L 53-69

−23.5

ILL

L 58-98

−4.5

MOST

W 75-61

−9.5

WIN

L 92-94

+32.5

LEH

W 87-82

+26.5

LAS

W 70-60

−13.5

MSST

L 83-87

+17.5

FIU

L 79-86

+3.5

UGA

L 74-89

−16.5

CCSU

W 84-78

+15.5

CHST

W 74-55

−22.5

MERC

W 60-58

−21.5

SFPA

W 67-63

−18.5

FDU

W 66-59

−18.5

LEM

L 77-83

+9.5

STO

W 66-63

−8.5

LEM

W 83-61

−3.5

CCSU

W 80-59

−3.5

NHVN

W 60-55

−20.5

STO

W 61-54

−17.5

WAG

W 67-57

−11.5

NHVN

L 52-55

−22.5

WAG

W 83-65

+9.5

SFPA

W 91-89

+31.5

MERC

L 83-91

+33.5

CHST

W 73-56

−12.5

FDU

W 74-60

−3.5

CHST

W 79-75

+16.5

WAG

W 64-56

−18.5

MERC

W 79-70

+14.5

ARIZ

L 58-92

+2.5

over 15under 20avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Notre Dame

31 games played

Straight up

13-18

42% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-9

71% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1842%

W W W L W L W L W W W W L W L L L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

W W L W L L L W W W W W L W W L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

22-971%

O O U U O U U U O O O O U U O O O O O U O O U O O O O O O O O

8 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIU	W 89-67	-15.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 7	vsDETM	W 102-70	-21.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsEIU	W 78-58	-23.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 16	@OSU	L 63-64	+9.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 19	vsBELL	W 86-79	-24.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	vsKU	L 61-71	+5.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsRUTG	W 68-63	-6.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsHOU	L 56-66	+11.5	W +1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 2	vsMIZ	W 76-71	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 5	@TCU	W 87-85	+6.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 10	vsIDHO	W 80-65	-11.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 145
Dec 13	vsEVAN	W 82-58	-14.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 21	vsPFW	L 69-72	-11.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 141
Dec 30	@STAN	W 47-40	+6.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 87
Jan 2	@CAL	L 71-72	+3.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 10	vsCLEM	L 61-76	+3.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 13	vsMIA	L 69-81	+5.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 17	@VT	L 76-89	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 21	@UNC	L 69-91	+13.5	L −8.5	149.5	O 160
Jan 24	vsBC	W 68-64	-7.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 27	vsUVA	L 97-100	+9.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 197
Jan 31	@SYR	L 72-86	+6.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 4	@LOU	L 65-76	+19.5	W +8.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 7	vsFSU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 10	@SMU	L 81-89	+10.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 170
Feb 14	vsGT	W 89-74	-5.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 21	@PITT	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 24	vsDUKE	L 56-100	+16.5	L −27.5	141.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsNCSU	W 96-90	+6.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 186
Mar 4	vsSTAN	L 78-86	+1.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 164
Mar 7	@BC	L 69-77	-1.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+6.5

DETM

W 102-70

+10.5

EIU

W 78-58

−3.5

OSU

L 63-64

+8.5

BELL

W 86-79

−17.5

L 61-71

−4.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−1.5

HOU

L 56-66

+1.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+6.5

TCU

W 87-85

+8.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+3.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+9.5

PFW

L 69-72

−14.5

STAN

W 47-40

+13.5

CAL

L 71-72

+2.5

CLEM

L 61-76

−11.5

MIA

L 69-81

−6.5

L 76-89

−6.5

UNC

L 69-91

−8.5

W 68-64

−3.5

UVA

L 97-100

+6.5

SYR

L 72-86

−7.5

LOU

L 65-76

+8.5

FSU

L 79-82

−4.5

SMU

L 81-89

+2.5

W 89-74

+9.5

PITT

L 68-73

−1.5

DUKE

L 56-100

−27.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+12.5

STAN

L 78-86

−6.5

L 69-77

−9.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+20.5

DETM

W 102-70

+24.5

EIU

W 78-58

−7.5

OSU

L 63-64

−29.5

BELL

W 86-79

+14.5

L 61-71

−11.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−9.5

HOU

L 56-66

−10.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+0.5

TCU

W 87-85

+30.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+0.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+3.5

PFW

L 69-72

−8.5

STAN

W 47-40

−56.5

CAL

L 71-72

+4.5

CLEM

L 61-76

+3.5

MIA

L 69-81

+6.5

L 76-89

+21.5

UNC

L 69-91

+10.5

W 68-64

−5.5

UVA

L 97-100

+51.5

SYR

L 72-86

+10.5

LOU

L 65-76

−14.5

FSU

L 79-82

+6.5

SMU

L 81-89

+15.5

W 89-74

+12.5

PITT

L 68-73

+0.5

DUKE

L 56-100

+14.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+32.5

STAN

L 78-86

+16.5

L 69-77

+4.5

over 22under 9avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Notre Dame has the better starters

Position by position: Long Island 0, Notre Dame 3, even 2

Long IslandBetterNotre Dame

G J. Pickett TR5.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 2

NDBig

G B. Shrewsberry15 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 73

G K. Jones TR4.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 13

NDBig

G E. Roberts TR11 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Score 64

G D. Davis TR0.7 pts · 0.3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Smith TR16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 91

G D. Jean-Charles TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Brown TR6.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 43

F J. Johnson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

NDBig

C L. Duncomb TR18.2 pts · 8.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 99

Long IslandBetterNotre Dame

LIU offense339th of 366 · -11.1

NDBig

ND defense63rd of 366 · +1.2

LIU defense283rd of 366 · -7.1

NDBig

ND offense76th of 366 · +1.1

Backcourt-6.7 · 4 players

NDBig

Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player

NDBig

Frontcourt+7.1 · 1 player

Bench-1.6 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestLIU betterND betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Long Island

Guards

J. Pickett27 min · TRK. Jones11 min · TRD. Davis9 min · TRD. Jean-Charles9 min · TRM. Ndlovu-Fraser8 minV. AlletteNew

Forwards

J. Johnson15 min · TRJ. Howard7 min · TRX. Li4 minM. BewleyNewR. BewleyNewT. BowlesNew

Notre Dame

Guards

B. Shrewsberry36 minE. Roberts32 min · TRB. Smith31 min · TRD. Brown24 min · TRL. Imes21 minB. Stevens2 min

Forwards

B. Koehler16 minB. Ruglass Dortch15 min · TRY. DialloNewL. DevineNew

Centers

L. Duncomb25 min · TRT. AhnemanNewG. SolongoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIU73.6 #214

ND74.5 #180

Points per possession

LIU1.08 #185

ND1.10 #143

Pace (possessions)

LIU68.5 #206

ND67.7 #239

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIU52.8 #112

ND52.3 #133

3-point %

LIU35.8 #67

ND35.6 #82

3-point attempt rate

LIU29.3 #354

ND43.5 #101

Free throw rate

LIU34.0 #207

ND34.1 #206

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIU19.0 #320

ND16.9 #199

Offensive rebound rate

LIU33.9 #70

ND31.2 #155

Assists per game

LIU13.7 #170

ND12.3 #267

Defense

Points allowed

LIU71.7 #99

ND75.3 #197

Points allowed per possession

LIU1.04 #80

ND1.11 #255

Opponent effective FG%

LIU50.0 #102

ND51.8 #200

Opponent 3-point %

LIU32.2 #72

ND33.2 #138

Turnovers forced

LIU18.7 #61

ND14.0 #337

Defensive rebound rate

LIU67.0 #299

ND73.3 #27

Steals per game

LIU7.8 #56

ND4.5 #355

Blocks per game

LIU5.4 #9

ND2.2 #328

LIU		ND
Scoring
73.6 #214	Points per game	74.5 #180
1.08 #185	Points per possession	1.10 #143
68.5 #206	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #239
Shooting
52.8 #112	Effective FG%	52.3 #133
35.8 #67	3-point %	35.6 #82
29.3 #354	3-point attempt rate	43.5 #101
34.0 #207	Free throw rate	34.1 #206
Possessions
19.0 #320	Turnover rate	16.9 #199
33.9 #70	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #155
13.7 #170	Assists per game	12.3 #267
Defense
71.7 #99	Points allowed	75.3 #197
1.04 #80	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #255
50.0 #102	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #200
32.2 #72	Opponent 3-point %	33.2 #138
18.7 #61	Turnovers forced	14.0 #337
67.0 #299	Defensive rebound rate	73.3 #27
7.8 #56	Steals per game	4.5 #355
5.4 #9	Blocks per game	2.2 #328

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Long Island

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arizona58–92
Wvs Mercyhurst79–70
Wvs Wagner64–56
Wvs Chicago St79–75
Wvs FDU74–60

A week or more of rest.

Notre Dame

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston College69–77
Lvs Stanford78–86
Wvs NC State96–90
Lvs Duke56–100
L@ Pitt68–73

A week or more of rest.

Long Island University Sharks at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

What could decide it: ND has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Long Island

Notre Dame

Notre Dame has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Long Island

Notre Dame