Morgan State Bears at George Mason Patriots: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 7:00 PM ETEagleBank Arena · at George Mason

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Morgan St and George Mason
MORG	This season	GMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GMU 87–62 · win probability GMU 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

MORG 0, GMU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GMUBig

GMU offense vs MORG defense

Offense 106th of 366 against a defense 360th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MORG has played the 360th-hardest schedule, GMU the 118th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GMUBig

MORG offense vs GMU defense

Offense 293rd of 366 against a defense 64th, on the model’s ratings

GMUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MORG 45.8 and allows 51.7; GMU 52.7 and allows 49.5

GMUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MORG 42.7, GMU 41.1. Allowed: MORG 50.9, GMU 28.9

GMUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MORG 30.7%, GMU 31.3%. Defensive: MORG 64.8%, GMU 71.7%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: MORG plays 71.1 a game (73rd fastest), GMU 64.7 (351st). Faster games mean more points

GMUSmall

Home court

GMU at home. This season: GMU 0-0 at home, MORG 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MORG 17.8%, GMU 15.8%. Forced: MORG 16.5%, GMU 15.5%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MORG 36%, GMU 24%. Transfers in: MORG 3, GMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

MORG hits 31.7% and allows 31.5%; GMU hits 33.3% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 35.2% and 35.2% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GMU -24.7	—
Total	—	149.4	—
Projected score	—	MORG 62.4 · GMU 87

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GMU -14.6	—
1H total	69.9	—
1H projected score	MORG 27.7 · GMU 42.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MORG WLWLL	15-12	56%	7-7	—
GMU WWWLL	16-16	50%	11-8	—

Venue/role: MORG away; GMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MORG OUOUO	16-11	59%	11-16
GMU UUUUO	15-17	47%	22-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MORG	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
GMU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Morgan St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	@ MD	No recent meeting

George Mason

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs ODU	W73–61LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MORG 0–1 GMUGMU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MORG 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 14, 2021-22	MORG 53 @ GMU 90	GMU -11.5	GMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Morgan St

27 games played

Straight up

11-16

41% wins

Against the spread

15-12

56% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-11

59% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1641%

L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W W W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1256%

W W L L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W W W W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1159%

O U O U U U O U O U O U U U O O O O O O O O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GTWN	L 70-87	+27.5	W +10.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 11	vsUMBC	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 15	@MERC	L 72-86	+6.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsNCAT	L 73-79	+2.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 152
Nov 21	@ODU	L 56-88	+11.5	L −20.5	156.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsDREX	L 66-71	+5.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsLONG	L 80-84	+5.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 164
Dec 9	@DEP	L 49-92	+21.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 141
Dec 13	vsNIA	W 81-73	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 19	@CAL	L 50-97	+26.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 21	@SF	L 64-94	+25.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 23	@LMU	L 56-83	+23.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 139
Jan 3	@UMES	L 49-66	+6.5	L −10.5	138.5	U 115
Jan 10	vsSCST	W 72-67	-4.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	vsNCCU	L 78-89	+3.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 167
Jan 17	@DSU	W 80-79	+3.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 159
Jan 24	@HOW	W 78-77	+14.5	W +15.5	148.5	O 155
Jan 26	@NORF	W 79-78	+7.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 157
Jan 31	@COPP	W 89-80	-3.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 169
Feb 7	vsUMES	W 79-71	+1.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 16	@NCCU	L 76-80	+5.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 21	vsDSU	W 82-68	-5.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 25	@SCST	W 90-83	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	vsHOW	L 59-84	+8.5	L −16.5	158.5	U 143
Mar 2	vsNORF	W 90-84	+3.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 174
Mar 5	vsCOPP	W 70-66	-5.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 136
Mar 11	vsDSU	L 70-75	-3.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GTWN

L 70-87

+10.5

UMBC

L 79-81

+2.5

MERC

L 72-86

−7.5

NCAT

L 73-79

−3.5

ODU

L 56-88

−20.5

DREX

L 66-71

+0.5

LONG

L 80-84

+1.5

DEP

L 49-92

−21.5

NIA

W 81-73

+6.5

CAL

L 50-97

−20.5

L 64-94

−4.5

LMU

L 56-83

−3.5

UMES

L 49-66

−10.5

SCST

W 72-67

+0.5

NCCU

L 78-89

−7.5

DSU

W 80-79

+4.5

HOW

W 78-77

+15.5

NORF

W 79-78

+8.5

COPP

W 89-80

+5.5

UMES

W 79-71

+9.5

NCCU

L 76-80

+1.5

DSU

W 82-68

+8.5

SCST

W 90-83

+5.5

HOW

L 59-84

−16.5

NORF

W 90-84

+9.5

COPP

W 70-66

−1.5

DSU

L 70-75

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 12avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GTWN

L 70-87

+2.5

UMBC

L 79-81

−2.5

MERC

L 72-86

+11.5

NCAT

L 73-79

−9.5

ODU

L 56-88

−12.5

DREX

L 66-71

−6.5

LONG

L 80-84

+9.5

DEP

L 49-92

−9.5

NIA

W 81-73

+13.5

CAL

L 50-97

−4.5

L 64-94

+12.5

LMU

L 56-83

−5.5

UMES

L 49-66

−23.5

SCST

W 72-67

−8.5

NCCU

L 78-89

+25.5

DSU

W 80-79

+22.5

HOW

W 78-77

+6.5

NORF

W 79-78

+4.5

COPP

W 89-80

+13.5

UMES

W 79-71

+9.5

NCCU

L 76-80

+9.5

DSU

W 82-68

+6.5

SCST

W 90-83

+19.5

HOW

L 59-84

−15.5

NORF

W 90-84

+17.5

COPP

W 70-66

−13.5

DSU

L 70-75

+2.5

over 16under 11avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

George Mason

32 games played

Straight up

22-10

69% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1069%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W W L W L L L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L L W W W W W L L L L L W W W L W L W W L W L L L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O U U O U O O U U O O O U U O O U O U O U U O U O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWOF	W 70-46	-14.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 116
Nov 7	vsWIN	W 96-90	-9.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 15	vsUNH	W 61-44	-24.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	vsJAX	W 79-57	-16.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsOHIO	W 92-69	-7.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 161
Nov 25	vsFAU	W 74-65	-4.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsJMU	W 82-66	-12.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 2	vsCOR	W 99-81	-10.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 180
Dec 6	@VT	L 62-73	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 135
Dec 13	vsODU	W 73-61	-16.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 134
Dec 21	vsL-MD	W 86-79	-23.5	L −16.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 28	vsPENN	W 83-79	-16.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	@LAS	W 80-75	-8.5	L −3.5	134.5	O 155
Jan 3	vsURI	W 61-50	-6.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 111
Jan 7	@FOR	W 67-58	-5.5	W +3.5	134.5	U 125
Jan 10	vsVCU	W 86-80	+1.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 166
Jan 13	@LUC	W 82-74	-11.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 19	vsGW	W 69-64	-1.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 133
Jan 24	@URI	L 65-74	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 28	vsDAV	W 60-52	-6.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 112
Jan 31	@SBU	W 77-73	-1.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsDUQ	L 65-71	-8.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsJOES	W 60-52	-6.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 112
Feb 10	@RICH	L 70-82	-3.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 13	@GW	L 53-72	+3.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 18	vsDAY	L 67-82	-2.5	L −17.5	137.5	O 149
Feb 25	@JOES	L 63-81	-1.5	L −19.5	136.5	O 144
Feb 28	vsSBU	W 71-58	-3.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 129
Mar 3	@VCU	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 135
Mar 7	vsSLU	W 86-57	+7.5	W +36.5	146.5	U 143
Mar 12	vsSBU	L 57-63	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 120
Mar 17	vsLIB	L 71-77	-2.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

+9.5

WIN

W 96-90

−3.5

UNH

W 61-44

−7.5

JAX

W 79-57

+5.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+15.5

FAU

W 74-65

+4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+3.5

COR

W 99-81

+7.5

L 62-73

−6.5

ODU

W 73-61

−4.5

L-MD

W 86-79

−16.5

PENN

W 83-79

−12.5

LAS

W 80-75

−3.5

URI

W 61-50

+4.5

FOR

W 67-58

+3.5

VCU

W 86-80

+7.5

LUC

W 82-74

−3.5

W 69-64

+3.5

URI

L 65-74

−10.5

DAV

W 60-52

+1.5

SBU

W 77-73

+2.5

DUQ

L 65-71

−14.5

JOES

W 60-52

+1.5

RICH

L 70-82

−15.5

L 53-72

−15.5

DAY

L 67-82

−17.5

JOES

L 63-81

−19.5

SBU

W 71-58

+9.5

VCU

L 65-70

+4.5

SLU

W 86-57

+36.5

SBU

L 57-63

−8.5

LIB

L 71-77

−8.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

−24.5

WIN

W 96-90

+39.5

UNH

W 61-44

−39.5

JAX

W 79-57

−0.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+18.5

FAU

W 74-65

−4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+6.5

COR

W 99-81

+24.5

L 62-73

−9.5

ODU

W 73-61

−10.5

L-MD

W 86-79

+18.5

PENN

W 83-79

+15.5

LAS

W 80-75

+20.5

URI

W 61-50

−28.5

FOR

W 67-58

−9.5

VCU

W 86-80

+21.5

LUC

W 82-74

+15.5

W 69-64

−20.5

URI

L 65-74

+3.5

DAV

W 60-52

−22.5

SBU

W 77-73

+7.5

DUQ

L 65-71

−7.5

JOES

W 60-52

−27.5

RICH

L 70-82

+12.5

L 53-72

−24.5

DAY

L 67-82

+11.5

JOES

L 63-81

+7.5

SBU

W 71-58

−17.5

VCU

L 65-70

−12.5

SLU

W 86-57

−3.5

SBU

L 57-63

−23.5

LIB

L 71-77

+6.5

over 15under 17avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

George Mason has the better starters

Position by position: Morgan St 0, George Mason 3, even 2

Morgan StBetterGeorge Mason

G A. Worrell16.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 70

GMUSmall

G B. Okojie TR20.1 pts · 3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 91

G J. Awoke TR6.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 12

GMUBig

G M. Valentine TR13.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast Score 71

G D. Bumpass2.7 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G L. Marville TR9.5 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 39

F K. Horton TR7.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

GMUBig

F E. Jones TR12.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78

F T. Edwards3.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F E. Adair TR14.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74

Morgan StBetterGeorge Mason

MORG offense293rd of 366 · -9.1

GMUBig

GMU defense64th of 366 · +1.1

MORG defense360th of 366 · -11.0

GMUBig

GMU offense106th of 366 · -1.5

Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players

GMUBig

Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.7 · 2 players

GMUBig

Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

Even

Bench-1.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMORG betterGMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Morgan St

Guards

A. Worrell30 minJ. Awoke25 min · TRD. Bumpass9 minB. Barnett2 minJ. KwartengNewK. RichardNew

Forwards

K. Horton20 min · TRT. Edwards17 minM. Wade8 minM. Lual7 minI. Traore6 min · TRT. PettigrewNew

George Mason

Guards

B. Okojie35 min · TRM. Valentine32 min · TRL. Marville26 min · TRE. Oliogu-Elabor16 min · TRM. Presley16 minB. O'Connor15 min

Forwards

E. Jones29 min · TRE. Adair26 min · TRM. Marcus24 min · TRE. Kanga13 minR. MendyNewS. PendergrassNew

Centers

J. Nnaji8 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MORG71.7 #252

GMU72.9 #227

Points per possession

MORG1.01 #316

GMU1.13 #93

Pace (possessions)

MORG71.1 #73

GMU64.7 #351

Shooting

Effective FG%

MORG45.8 #351

GMU52.7 #113

3-point %

MORG31.7 #295

GMU33.3 #214

3-point attempt rate

MORG35.2 #274

GMU35.2 #270

Free throw rate

MORG42.7 #22

GMU41.1 #44

Possessions

Turnover rate

MORG17.8 #262

GMU15.8 #121

Offensive rebound rate

MORG30.7 #172

GMU31.3 #149

Assists per game

MORG12.2 #269

GMU12.6 #243

Defense

Points allowed

MORG80.1 #321

GMU68.0 #31

Points allowed per possession

MORG1.13 #288

GMU1.05 #89

Opponent effective FG%

MORG51.7 #194

GMU49.5 #83

Opponent 3-point %

MORG31.5 #43

GMU32.6 #91

Turnovers forced

MORG16.5 #186

GMU15.5 #254

Defensive rebound rate

MORG64.8 #341

GMU71.7 #79

Steals per game

MORG4.3 #359

GMU5.0 #334

Blocks per game

MORG3.3 #172

GMU3.0 #228

MORG		GMU
Scoring
71.7 #252	Points per game	72.9 #227
1.01 #316	Points per possession	1.13 #93
71.1 #73	Pace (possessions)	64.7 #351
Shooting
45.8 #351	Effective FG%	52.7 #113
31.7 #295	3-point %	33.3 #214
35.2 #274	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #270
42.7 #22	Free throw rate	41.1 #44
Possessions
17.8 #262	Turnover rate	15.8 #121
30.7 #172	Offensive rebound rate	31.3 #149
12.2 #269	Assists per game	12.6 #243
Defense
80.1 #321	Points allowed	68.0 #31
1.13 #288	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #89
51.7 #194	Opponent effective FG%	49.5 #83
31.5 #43	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #91
16.5 #186	Turnovers forced	15.5 #254
64.8 #341	Defensive rebound rate	71.7 #79
4.3 #359	Steals per game	5.0 #334
3.3 #172	Blocks per game	3.0 #228

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Morgan St

11-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Delaware St70–75
Wvs Coppin St70–66
Wvs Norfolk St90–84
Lvs Howard59–84
W@ SC State90–83

A week or more of rest.

George Mason

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Liberty71–77
Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
Wvs Saint Louis86–57
L@ VCU65–70
Wvs St Bonaventure71–58

A week or more of rest.

Morgan State Bears at George Mason Patriots

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Morgan St

George Mason

George Mason has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Morgan St

George Mason