1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. MORG @ MD
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Morgan State Bears at Maryland Terrapins

XFINITY Center · at Maryland
#345MORGMorgan St
@
#50MDMaryland
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MORGThis seasonMD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MD 92–61 · win probability MD 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MD has more of the edges

MORG 2, MD 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MORG has played the 360th-hardest schedule, MD the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MDBig
MD offense vs MORG defense
Offense 63rd of 366 against a defense 360th, on the model’s ratings
MDBig
MORG offense vs MD defense
Offense 293rd of 366 against a defense 34th, on the model’s ratings
MDBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MORG 30.7%, MD 33.8%. Defensive: MORG 64.8%, MD 70.9%
MORGBig
Three-pointers
MORG hits 31.7% and allows 31.5%; MD hits 31.7% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 35.2% and 46.9% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MORG plays 71.1 a game (73rd fastest), MD 67.0 (281st). Faster games mean more points
MORGSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MORG 17.8%, MD 18.6%. Forced: MORG 16.5%, MD 14.9%
MDSmall
Home court
MD at home. This season: MD 0-0 at home, MORG 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MORG 45.8 and allows 51.7; MD 48.1 and allows 54.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MORG 36%, MD 47%. Transfers in: MORG 3, MD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MORG 42.7, MD 36.4. Allowed: MORG 50.9, MD 35.8
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MD -30.7—
Total—152.5—
Projected score—MORG 60.9 · MD 91.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMD -18.1—
1H total71.3—
1H projected scoreMORG 26.6 · MD 44.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Maryland has the better starters

Position by position: Morgan St 0, Maryland 2, even 3
Morgan StBetterMaryland
G A. Worrell16.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 70
Even
G M. McNair TR16.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 84
G J. Awoke TR6.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 12
MDBig
G A. Mills12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
G D. Bumpass2.7 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Boswell TR6.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.1 ast Score 70
F K. Horton TR7.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19
MDBig
F P. Payne17.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 100
F T. Edwards3.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Buljan TR13.1 pts · 10.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 97
Morgan StBetterMaryland
MORG offense293rd of 366 · -9.1
MDBig
MD defense34th of 366 · +3.3
MORG defense360th of 366 · -11.0
MDBig
MD offense63rd of 366 · +2.4
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
MDBig
Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.7 · 2 players
MDBig
Frontcourt+11.4 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 4 players
Even
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMORG betterMD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Morgan St
Guards
A. Worrell30 minJ. Awoke25 min · TRD. Bumpass9 minB. Barnett2 minJ. KwartengNewK. RichardNew
Forwards
K. Horton20 min · TRT. Edwards17 minM. Wade8 minM. Lual7 minI. Traore6 min · TRT. PettigrewNew
Maryland
Guards
M. McNair37 min · TRA. Mills27 minB. Boswell27 min · TRD. Wagner24 min · TRM. Jabriel20 minG. Turkson11 min
Forwards
P. Payne27 minT. Buljan26 min · TRR. Jennings13 min · TRA. BrownNewB. OladotunNewA. TambedouNew
Centers
A. K'MedehoutoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MORGMD
Scoring
71.7 #252Points per game69.7 #291
1.01 #316Points per possession1.04 #270
71.1 #73Pace (possessions)67.0 #281
Shooting
45.8 #351Effective FG%48.1 #311
31.7 #2953-point %31.7 #293
35.2 #2743-point attempt rate46.9 #35
42.7 #22Free throw rate36.4 #142
Possessions
17.8 #262Turnover rate18.6 #300
30.7 #172Offensive rebound rate33.8 #73
12.2 #269Assists per game10.4 #351
Defense
80.1 #321Points allowed76.6 #232
1.13 #288Points allowed per possession1.14 #312
51.7 #194Opponent effective FG%54.4 #312
31.5 #43Opponent 3-point %36.3 #317
16.5 #186Turnovers forced14.9 #294
64.8 #341Defensive rebound rate70.9 #111
4.3 #359Steals per game4.8 #345
3.3 #172Blocks per game2.9 #237
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Morgan St

11-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Delaware St70–75
  • Wvs Coppin St70–66
  • Wvs Norfolk St90–84
  • Lvs Howard59–84
  • W@ SC State90–83

A week or more of rest.

Maryland

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-17 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa64–75
  • Wvs Oregon70–60
  • Lvs Illinois72–78
  • L@ Wisconsin45–78
  • Lvs Rutgers65–69

A week or more of rest.