1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. UCSD @ STMN
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

UC San Diego Tritons at St. Thomas Tommies

Lee & Penny Anderson Arena · at St Thomas
#123UCSDUC San Diego
@
#212STMNSt Thomas
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UCSDThis seasonSTMN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSD 74–72 · win probability UCSD 58%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UCSD 3, STMN 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UCSD has played the 205th-hardest schedule, STMN the 341st. A record against a soft schedule means less
STMNSmall
Three-pointers
UCSD hits 32.8% and allows 31.6%; STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 42.3% and 46.3% of their shots
UCSDSmall
STMN offense vs UCSD defense
Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 110th, on the model’s ratings
UCSDSmall
UCSD offense vs STMN defense
Offense 145th of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings
STMNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UCSD 16.5%, STMN 14.4%. Forced: UCSD 16.8%, STMN 17.0%
UCSDSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UCSD 68%, STMN 35%. Transfers in: UCSD 5, STMN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
STMNSmall
Home court
STMN at home. This season: STMN 0-0 at home, UCSD 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UCSD 31.2, STMN 33.8. Allowed: UCSD 29.3, STMN 30.7
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UCSD 52.6 and allows 48.4; STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UCSD 26.1%, STMN 22.6%. Defensive: UCSD 73.0%, STMN 73.4%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UCSD plays 69.7 a game (130th fastest), STMN 69.7 (137th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCSD -2.3—
Total—146.1—
Projected score—UCSD 74.2 · STMN 71.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCSD -1.5—
1H total68.4—
1H projected scoreUCSD 34.9 · STMN 33.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UC San Diego has the better starters

Position by position: UC San Diego 3, St Thomas 0, even 2
UC San DiegoBetterSt Thomas
G R. Barno TR11.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 5 ast Score 52
Even
G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57
G T. Beattie10.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 71
UCSDBig
G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24
G C. Wagner TR12 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 50
UCSDSmall
F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25
G T. Eaglestaff TR9.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77
UCSDBig
F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9
F L. Beath11.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 51
No call
F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
UC San DiegoBetterSt Thomas
UCSD offense145th of 366 · -4.4
UCSDSmall
STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8
UCSD defense110th of 366 · -1.3
UCSDSmall
STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9
Backcourt+0.3 · 4 players
UCSDSmall
Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
UCSDBig
Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players
Bench-3.3 · 5 players
STMNSmall
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUCSD betterSTMN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UC San Diego
Guards
R. Barno32 min · TRT. Beattie32 minC. Wagner30 min · TRT. Eaglestaff29 min · TRK. Dotson27 min · TRA. Chaikin25 min
Forwards
L. Beath30 minO. Suutela18 min · TRJ. Vance13 minC. Pendleton8 minJ. HolmesNew
Centers
D. Vukicevic7 min
St Thomas
Guards
A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min
Forwards
C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UCSDSTMN
Scoring
74.5 #179Points per game80.9 #48
1.07 #211Points per possession1.16 #45
69.7 #130Pace (possessions)69.7 #137
Shooting
52.6 #124Effective FG%58.9 #5
32.8 #2413-point %36.0 #57
42.3 #1313-point attempt rate46.3 #41
31.2 #277Free throw rate33.8 #220
Possessions
16.5 #165Turnover rate14.4 #37
26.1 #320Offensive rebound rate22.6 #353
14.9 #94Assists per game16.4 #37
Defense
70.5 #63Points allowed73.1 #135
1.01 #35Points allowed per possession1.05 #82
48.4 #45Opponent effective FG%50.7 #139
31.6 #45Opponent 3-point %31.7 #52
16.8 #165Turnovers forced17.0 #152
73.0 #38Defensive rebound rate73.4 #25
7.4 #94Steals per game7.5 #87
2.6 #299Blocks per game2.6 #296
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC San Diego

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs CSU Northridge70–80
  • Wvs Cal Poly72–69
  • W@ Santa Barbara64–63
  • L@ Fullerton71–75
  • Wvs Cal Poly80–64

A week or more of rest.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Seattle U52–67
  • Lvs North Dakota66–67
  • Wvs S Dakota St80–67
  • Wvs Omaha68–53
  • Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.